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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable; turning breezy and cooler for a time

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 May – Sunday 26 May

Mostly dry and rather warm, then wetter later.

Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see a lot of dry weather for many with spells of sunshine and gentle winds. However, the far north-east of Scotland will stay cloudier, cooler and breezy with rain at times. One or two showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere but most places will escape those. It will be quite warm, particularly in the south and east with highs into the low 20s Celsius for some. On Friday, spells of sunshine are likely to give way to a build-up of cloud for a time with showers spreading south-eastwards across the UK. However, the showers will be hit and miss with some places escaping dry again. This weekend the weather is likely to see a northwest-southeast split in the weather. The north-western half of the UK is likely to become cloudier and windier with outbreaks of rain, these perhaps most widespread on Sunday. Further south-east, it is likely to stay rather warm with sunshine at times but a few showers are likely as the weekend progresses.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 2 June

Breezy and showery at times. Rather cool.

Next week, the jet stream (a ribbon of strong winds in the upper atmosphere) is likely to make a reappearance over the UK, bringing more unsettled conditions from the Atlantic. It is likely to be a breezier and cooler week than this week with showers and occasional bands of rain moving from west to east across the country. Showers and rain are likely to be most frequent in the north and west. Southern and eastern areas of England should have some lengthier drier and brighter interludes of weather but with some useful rain there too. There is just a slight chance that high pressure moves in from the south-west later in the week to bring a lengthier drier and calmer period of weather then. Most likely, though, is for a rather showery, breezy and cool week.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 16 June

Slowly turning drier, calmer and warmer

The first full week of June is expected to see changeable weather conditions with some further bands of rain or showers spreading from the west at times. North-western areas of the UK are favoured to be wettest, including western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England. Further south and east, there should be some decent periods of drier weather in-between the showers. By the second week of June, drier and calmer conditions are likely to become more widespread over the UK, thanks to an area of high pressure expanding northwards across Europe. It should turn warmer again with temperatures rising above the seasonal average at times. However, there is a chance that high pressure ends-up further north than expected, which could allow some showers, perhaps thundery, to move into southern areas at times.

Further ahead

Will the weather remain highly changeable from week to week with further swings between relatively calm and dry conditions and cooler, showery weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Much cooler and wetter spell
  • More settled by mid-June
  • Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/24/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-splash-sizzle/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler and wetter finish to May but turning warmer

_________________________________

Saturday 25 May – Sunday 2 June

Wet and cool end to May, warmer in June

Despite a warm start to the weekend, a frontal system will move across the UK both Saturday and Sunday, bringing widespread outbreaks of persistent rain to Scotland, and a cold front will sharp showers for England and Wales on Sunday, and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the Southeast Sunday afternoon. From Monday low pressure will bring in cooler air from the north-northwest, so temperatures will drop down to a bit below average for late May through much of the working week. Monday and Tuesday look to be quite unsettled with plenty of showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms in the afternoon. There will also be a few dry and bright spells mixed in.

Wednesday is expected to be marginally drier for most, except for some lingering showers in Scotland, and clearer skies will make for a chilly night. From Thursday and through the weekend, the pattern will gradually begin to shift again. A weak frontal system Thursday and Friday will bring some outbreaks of rain for most, but a high building into Central Europe should push this off to the north and replace it with drier and warmer air for southern areas. By Saturday and Sunday, the southern half of the country may see temperatures returning to near average with little rain, but the northern half will likely still be cooler and wetter.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 9 June

Warmer and drier, but some rain in places

As we head into the first full week of June, high pressure is expected to build strongly across Central Europe and into Scandinavia, bringing in warmer tropical air to the UK and pushing much of the rain off to the north. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely still see showers and perhaps longer spells of rain at times as weak fronts pass through along the edge of the high around a low that is expected to linger near Iceland. For much of England and Wales, early June will be marked by mostly sunny and warm afternoons followed by dry, mild nights.

Temperatures are expected to climb a few degrees above average, so highs in the South in the mid-twenties are not out of the question. There is a risk, about 25%, that the high pressure centre will shift a bit too far to the east and end up over Eastern Europe and Russia. In this case, low pressure will be able to move in from the west, leading to a wetter trend. However, this will still likely be a warm pattern as south-westerly winds continue to bring in warmer and more tropical air.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 23 June

Staying warm but turning more unsettled

Moving into the second full week of June, the weather is expected to become a bit more changeable. The high pressure system in Central Europe is expected to continue slowly shifting northwards and eastwards into Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and Russia. Confidence is growing in favour of a blocked pattern, where high pressure to the north will prevent Atlantic weather systems from moving in from the west. However, low pressure is expected to be to the southwest near Spain and France, so the main risk for showery weather will be in the Southwest and West and along the southern coast, with Scotland seeing a bit of a break.

There is a chance that a few of these rain events could bring in some rather heavy and widespread showers or thunderstorms from the continent, but there will also be some longer dry and sunny spells as well making for warm afternoons. With low pressure centres to the south and southwest, warmer Mediterranean air will find into way into the UK, so temperatures will likely stay fairly warm despite the increased risk for showers.

Further ahead

Will the high pressure build in strong for early June, keeping things mostly dry and quite warm, or are we in for a wetter start to summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm start to June but unsettled until mid month

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 May – Sunday 2 June

Cooler start but turning warmer for the weekend.

Low pressure is expected to be the main weather feature for the rest of May and into early June, bringing in unsettled and cooler weather for most at first. Wednesday will see a warm front spread northwards across the country slowly, bringing rain and cloudy skies for most eventually, although Wednesday afternoon should be rather sunny and dry for North Scotland. The front is then expected to linger over Scotland through Friday, with most of England and Wales drying out and warming up as warming air feeds in from the southwest. However, a few showers are still possible in the west and southwest. On Friday a stronger frontal system will begin to move in from the west, bringing some heavier rain to Northern Ireland and Scotland while warmer air is drawn up from the south in England.

Saturday, as the cold front begins to push in across Ireland, is expected to be very warm across central and southeast counties of England, with highs in the upper twenties and mostly sunny skies. Further north in Scotland, it will be cooler bit temperatures near average Friday and Saturday before the cold front moves in. A few glimpses of the sun are possible (especially in the far Northeast), but it will likely stay mostly cloud and wet. By Sunday the cold front will slowly slide across Britain, but a mostly sunny afternoon in the Southeast will make for another warm day before cooler polar air moves in. Sunday night is expected to be noticeably cooler with mostly clear skies, although with scattered showers in the north and west.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 9 June

Unsettled throughout and turning cooler.

After Sunday's cold front heads east, low pressure looks to remain in charge through much of the first full week of June. This will tend to keep things unsettled but also near or a bit below average for temperatures, with the coolest conditions being in the north. For the first half of the week a low pressure system is expected to linger just north of Scotland, keeping the weather showery for the north and west, with occasional outbreaks of showers for central and eastern England. Towards the end of the working week, confidence in the day-to-day specifics decreases, but there is a risk that there could be a few thundery days for the Southeast, as storms drift in from the continent.

Temperatures are still expected to stay near or just below average overall, although in the Southeast there may be one or two sunny days that see an afternoon high a touch above average. Heading into the weekend, high pressure will begin to build more strongly into Central Europe which will likely help push the persistent low pressure near the UK off to the west. This will mean that conditions will begin to settle for most with temperatures returning to average or perhaps just above in the South. Scotland and Northern Ireland, unfortunately, will likely still see a few fronts and stay wet and cloudy.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 23 June

Staying warm and turning more settled for most

As we reach mid-June, there are increasingly signals in the models that high pressure will begin to build more strongly into north Europe and towards Iceland, with low pressure retreating south into the Mediterranean. The transition is expected to be quite gradual, taking place over the course of about a week. The UK will therefore gradually become more settled with temperatures increasingly to slightly above average through mid-June. Unsettled weather will linger for the longest in the west and southwest as high pressure strengthens in the east and north. As high pressure shift northwards towards Iceland for the latter part of June, the UK will likely stay fairly settled, along we could see a few wetter and windier days, especially in the south and west.

Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above average, with some very warm or even hot days for most. The best of the sunny and settled weather will likely be in Scotland towards the end of the month, so the Highlands may end up being the warmest spot on some days. There is a risk (about 30%) in the forecast that the high may shift a bit too far to the north and get quite close to Iceland heading into late-June. In this case, low pressure tracks that were expected in the Mediterranean will instead reach the UK from the west and southwest. This will likely still be a warm weather pattern, but it will be much wetter for all, but especially in the south.

Further ahead

We will hope to pin down with greater accuracy the timing of the pattern shift, and when exactly we might expect summer to arrive properly.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Browsing the Sun newspaper earlier and noticed an appearance from our very own @Paul Sherman

Can’t believe they are calling you an idiot though! Should be storm chasing legend! 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/9182898/instagram-selfie-tornadoes-us-risk-chase/amp/

9F2AD5DD-FBCF-4187-B297-80C378276E8D.thumb.png.e41b34b9e6aa6736c419460943a962c6.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cool and showery next week
  • Drier and warmer mid-June
  • Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/31/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-encounters/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler start to June, but some warmer air later

_________________________________

Saturday 1 June – Sunday 9 June

Warm weekend, then cooler next week. Wet.

June will start off with a warm but wet weekend as a frontal system sweeps across the country. Much of the southern half of England and Wales will see above average temperatures Saturday, with the Southeast seeing them Sunday as well. Highs are expected to climb into the upper twenties. Further north, however, lingering fronts will keep things wet, cloudy, and with temperatures near or a touch below average. Rain is expected to be heavy at times, especially in the west and for much of Scotland, while western counties of England and Wales turn breezy Sunday night into Monday as the cold front passes.

Moving into the first full week of June, the jet stream is expected to dip south into Spain and France, taking the warmer summer air with it. The working week is expected to be near or a bit below average, with the warmest weather staying in the South. Low pressure nearby will keep things unsettled with scattered sharp and at times thundery showers drifting in from the west or southwest. Tuesday afternoon a low moving in from the southwest will bring some heavier showers to most of the country, lasting through Wednesday. The best of the dry and sunny spells will be in the East, but there will still be some glimpses of sunshine in the West.

Heading into the next weekend, there is increasingly strong signals in the models that a low may develop in France and track quickly north into the North Sea through Saturday and Sunday. This would bring in some quite heavy rain and thunderstorms along with some very warm air to the Southeast and East, but there is still some uncertainty on how far west the rain will get, and it may well stay offshore.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 16 June

Becoming drier and gradually warmer for a time.

During the first week of June high pressure is expected to build strongly in Eastern Europe, keeping their weather settled and warm in a more typical summer pattern. By mid-June, this high is expected to slowly shift northwards into both Scandinavia and the UK, allowing us to experience some of the sun and warmth too. This will be a gradual transition after a rather wet weekend for some, so early in the week expected some showers to linger in the West and South before they are pushed off by the approaching high.

After a cooler start everyone is expected to warm to above average, with the warmest weather being in the eastern half of the country. As the high shifts northwards, Scotland will turn very dry with mostly sunny skies and some very warm days expected. Low pressure to the south will mean that there may be occasional cloudy spells for the southern half of England. Although it looks to be warmth and mostly sunny, the prospect of any significant and sustained hot weather is rather low.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 30 June

Staying warm, but rain expected to return.

High pressure will likely remain a significant weather feature for a significant portion of the third full week in June, however it will begin to slowly retreat eastwards again. A mostly sunny and warm start will therefore gradually transition into a more unsettled and less warm finish for the first month of meteorological summer. Temperatures are still expected to be a bit above average as the low pressure centres will tend to stay to the northwest, dragging in some warmer tropical air from the Azores. The wettest weather in this pattern would be expected in the South and Southwest, with the lingering effects of the high keeping northern areas largely dry and fine.

The main uncertainty for the second half of the month is exactly where the high will end up, and this is largely down to what is happening across the pond in the United States. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal in the southern and eastern half of the US, which will result in a stronger-than-usual jet stream over the Atlantic that may help strengthen the trough of low pressure in Western Europe that will bring us our unsettled weather.

This volatile jet stream will have a major role in the UK's late-June weather, so confidence is still low at this point, although there are not any strong indications of sustained cold anywhere. The main alternative scenario is for the high to shift northwest of the UK towards the end of the month, bringing in some cooler (but not cold) northwesterly winds and bringing wetter and windier weather to the North.

Further ahead

As we near a potentially very wet and stormy weekend in early June we can try and pin down who might want to re-think their outdoor plans or pack an umbrella.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Rare snow hits subtropical parts of Australia

Quote

 

Icy conditions have swept across eastern Australia, bringing snow to areas as far north as subtropical Queensland.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology described it as a "rare" sight, noting the state had not experienced significant snowfall since 2015.

Severe weather warnings have also been issued for a 1,000km (620 miles) stretch of coast which includes Sydney.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48507582

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cool and unsettled this week, then becoming warmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 June – Sunday 9 June

Cool and unsettled for the rest of this week.

The weather will remain unsettled for the rest of this week as low pressure systems move across or pass close to the United Kingdom. One such low pressure system will be centred over the country on Wednesday, and this system will bring rain to many northern and western areas with showers developing in other areas. Wednesday evening and night will see another low pressure system developing over mainland Europe and moving into the North Sea. This system will bring rain to eastern England overnight, then to north-eastern parts of the UK on Thursday. Other areas of the country will be mainly dry on Wednesday night but will see showers on Thursday, some of the showers likely to be heavy and perhaps thundery.

Thursday's low pressure system should move away on Friday, but another low will move in from the south. There is a little uncertainty over the exact track of this low, but the south of the UK is expected to see rain, some of this heavy, and freshening winds. There will be a risk of strong winds in southern and eastern England on Friday night, and many areas of the country could see showers or rain at times. The weekend will see the unsettled theme continuing. Whilst there is some uncertainty over the details, low pressure is expected to remain nearby, probably close to the north of the country. As a result, further showers and rain are likely. Temperatures are currently a little below normal for the time of year, and it looks as though it will become cooler still towards the end of the week.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 16 June

Probably becoming drier and warmer.

Low pressure is expected to linger close to the UK at the start of next week. There should be a change over the course of next week, with low pressure expected to sink southwards into France and Spain, and with a ridge of high pressure starting to build in from the west and south-west. This means that after an unsettled start to the week, we expected the weather to become calmer and more settled by the end of the week. Broadly speaking, rainfall will return to near or below normal for most parts of the UK during the course of next week. It looks as though southern and south-eastern areas may hang on to the wetter weather longest, but it should become drier here by the end of the week.

Temperatures should start to recover to near normal in most areas, and it will become warmer than normal in many parts of the country, especially later next week, as high pressure builds. It is worth noting that there is a degree of uncertainty over the forecast for next week. There is a slight to moderate chance that low pressure will remain the dominant force across northwest Europe for much of the week. If this happens then our weather is unlikely to change much, with it likely to remain cool, breezy and unsettled with showers and rain affecting the country.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 30 June

Staying warm, but with rain at times.

The second half of June should see high pressure lingering over northern Europe, with low pressure generally limited to western and south-western parts of the continent. This sort of pressure pattern tends to generate relatively warm winds across the UK, so we expect temperatures to remain above average for the time of year for much of the time. However, the low pressure systems expected to affect western Europe will more than likely bring some rain to the UK at times. Whilst the middle of June looks relatively dry, rainfall should return to nearer normal for the time of year later in the month.

We don't currently see any signs of significantly above average rainfall though. As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. Whilst we expect high pressure to remain nearby, it may decline southwards or south-westwards. This would leave north-west Europe open to a more westerly flow in from the Atlantic. This would mean that our weather becomes cooler and probably wetter and windier than we currently expect. The good news is that there's only a roughly 30 to 35% chance of the cooler and more unsettled weather.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the end of June and try to pin down a few more details of the warm end to the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cool and showery start
  • Drier and warmer interlude
  • More rain later

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/07/john-hammond-month-ahead-patience-virtue/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first but drier and warmer later

_________________________________

Saturday 8 June – Sunday 16 June

Staying cool and unsettled

Low pressure will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom this weekend and, in a change to the forecast, for much of next week. As a result, the weather is expected to be unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain for most areas. It will be a cool and at times windy spell of weather. Saturday will start cloudy with widespread showers and rain and with strong winds in some areas. Rain may start to clear the far south-west later but there will be a risk of showers here for the rest of the day. Sunday should be a brighter day with most areas expected to see some sunshine. However, there will be showers too, particularly in the north and west. The showers will become heavy and thundery in some areas. The day to day details of the forecast through the week are a little uncertain.

It looks as though low pressure will remain close to or over the UK, so further showery weather is expected, with some areas seeing rain becoming persistent and heavy at times. Perhaps unusually, the rain is likely to be heaviest across southern and eastern areas, with Scotland relatively dry. It will also be windy at times, and with winds coming primarily from the east or north-east it will be cool for the time of year. Wednesday looks likely to be the coolest and wettest day of the week. There are some signs that it will become a little less cool later in the week, with the weather starting to become a bit less unsettled. However, the chance of significantly drier and warmer weather has dropped since our last update.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 23 June

Less unsettled and a little warmer.

Low pressure is expected to linger close to the UK, but it should be to the west or southwest rather than over the UK. Although this is only a relatively minor change, it could make a quite a difference to the weather across many areas of the country. Firstly, with low pressure still relatively nearby we do expect further unsettled weather with showers and rain at times. However, unlike the previous week it looks as though north and west of the UK will be wettest whilst the south and east are drier, albeit still with some rain at times. Secondly, winds are more likely to be from the south-west, with temperatures near normal in most areas, and perhaps a little above for central and eastern England.

Only Scotland looks colder than average, and even here is doesn't look especially cold. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty in the forecast, and we could have a more varied week. There a couple of alternatives to our expected forecast. The most likely alternative is for low pressure to remain over the UK, continuing the cool, breezy and unsettled theme, however, there is a slight chance of high pressure building more strongly from the south and south-west, with the whole of the UK becoming drier and probably warmer.

Monday 24 June – Sunday 7 July

Becoming warmer and drier for most.

The end of June and start of July should see high pressure building more widely across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems generally staying to the north-west of the UK. Most parts of England and Wales can expect to see a lot of dry weather, and temperatures will tend to be above normal in all areas, with southern and eastern areas likely to be warmest. The low pressure systems passing to our north-west may bring occasional spells of rain and some windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but both countries can expect a fair amount of dry and calm weather, and it will be warmer than normal too.

As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. One reason for this is that there is a tendency for low pressure systems affecting the UK in mid-June to linger for the rest of the month. So, whilst we expect the weather to become drier and warmer, there is a chance that it may remain unsettled and cool through to the start of July, with some spells of warm, dry weather, albeit perhaps rather short-lived.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the end of June and start of July to see if the expected warm weather is still on the cards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Weather returns to normal
  • No sign of prolonged heat
  • Further rain at times

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/14/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-comeback/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first but drier and warmer later

_________________________________

Warmer and less wet for a time later this month

Wednesday 12 June – Sunday 16 June

Unsettled and rather cool for many

After a very wet start this week for England and Wales with local flooding, the rest of this week is likely to remain unsettled and rather cool for many. Wednesday will see outbreaks of rain extending over many northern areas of the UK; a very wet day for parts of northeast England where local flooding is possible. Further south, there will be spells of sunshine but with heavy, thundery showers developing over southern England.

Thursday will see further cloud and prolonged rain for some northern and western areas of the UK. Central and eastern England will be brighter at times but with showers, too, some heavy and thundery. Through Friday and this weekend, there will continue showers or some more prolonged spells of rain moving in from the west at times. However, the focus of the wettest weather is likely to be over western parts of the UK with eastern areas seeing at least a few drier and sunnier interludes between the showers.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 23 June

Warmer and less wet than this week

Next week is likely to be warmer and less wet than this week for many, thanks to an area of high pressure moving nearer from eastern Europe. Central and south-eastern areas of England have the potential to be very warm at times. The warmth could trigger a few thunderstorms but otherwise it is likely to be often dry here. Further north and west across the UK, temperatures should also rise, bringing at least a few warm days.

It will be less wet than this week but still with some rainfall and brisk winds at times. The focus of any wet weather is likely to be over Scotland and Northern Ireland because of weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic at times there. There is a slight chance that high pressure ends-up extending over most of the UK, which would bring stronger warmth and dryness more widely across the country.

Wednesday 24 July – Wednesday 7 August

Turning cooler and more showery again

The final week of June is now likely to see changeable conditions with weather fronts moving in from the west at times, bringing occasional wet and breezy spells of weather. However, there should also be some drier and brighter days, with the best of those expected to be over eastern England. Southern and eastern England should also be rather warm at times with temperatures near or slightly above the average for the end of June. Western Scotland is likely to be wettest and windiest with fronts bringing more prolonged outbreaks of rain there.

Into the first week of July, latest indications are for cooler west or north-westerly winds to bring showery and breezy conditions at times for many. Rainfall amounts are likely to increase above the average for early July. Temperatures are likely to fall to near or slightly below the seasonal average. The wettest areas are expected to be western and north-western parts of the UK, which could see more prolonged rain at times. There are chances that southern England could escape somewhat drier and warmer but a hot spell of weather through this period appears unlikely.

Further ahead

We will take a look to see whether the expected cool and showery conditions at the start of July eventually give way to some summer warmth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 24 July – Wednesday 7 August

Do you  mean 24 JUNE - 7 July instead of August 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

Do you  mean 24 JUNE - 7 July instead of August 

That's the beeb for you! They forgot to update at the weekend and have got the dates wrong when they got round to it today

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Eastbourne sees 1,000 lightning strikes in one hour

Quote

 

Some 1,000 lightning strikes illuminated the skies above Eastbourne as torrential rain and thunderstorms lashed part of the UK overnight.

Storms lit up the East Sussex seaside town for about an hour, while 42mm of rain fell further north in Lenham in Kent.

Homes were left without power and roads were flooded in other parts of south-east England. A yellow weather warning is in place for the region and East Anglia until 21:00 BST.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-48688194

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled into mid-July but dry spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 19 June – Sunday 23 June

Turning drier but rain returning Sunday

On Wednesday, areas of low pressure will make for rather unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain.From Thursday, however, high pressure will begin to build in from the south. After a rather showery start in western counties, rain will gradually ease in the south, with settled conditions spreading northwards. Showers are expected to linger in the far north of Scotland through Friday, however the rest of the UK will see dry and mostly sunny conditions.

The high system will also bring in some cooler north-westerly winds, so the temperatures will likely stay a bit below average. Warmer air is expected to move in from the south as we head into the weekend with much of the UK remaining dry through Saturday. On Sunday, the brief break in the wet weather will come to an end, with a frontal system pushing in from the southwest. This will bring rain, at times heavy or thundery, to most of the country.

Monday 24 June – Sunday 30 June

Unsettled start but gradually drying out

The start of next week will see more unsettled conditions due to a frontal system straddling the UK. Despite this, it will be warmer than normal across the south, with temperatures a touch above average. Meanwhile, many parts of the north will have outbreaks of rain and showers with the driest and sunniest weather towards the south. A strong ridge of high pressure in the North Atlantic is then expected to gradually push in from the northwest from Tuesday. The weather will likely turn more settled, but cooler, starting in Scotland and Northern Ireland then spreading southeast into England and Wales later in the week.

Although it will be mostly sunny throughout the country, the high pressure system will bring in some cooler air from near Iceland. Therefore, temperatures will likely dip to near or a bit below average again. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, winds will shift a bit more westerly, bringing a risk of some outbreaks of rain in the northwest of the UK. Cooler, Icelandic air will also push off to the east. Temperatures will likely warm up slightly, especially for much of England and Wales.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 14 July

Dry in early July with wetter weather later

The first week of July will be marked by a transition into a longer-lived and warmer high pressure pattern. The weather will likely turn more summer-like with warm, sunny days and little precipitation. However there is some uncertainty regarding the weather across the north of Scotland and Northern Isles, where it may stay cooler and wetter. Heading into the second full week of July, the confidence drops with uncertainty on how extensive the high pressure system will be across Central Europe and into the UK. Currently, the most likely outcome is for the high to retreat slightly southwest, allowing low pressure to return into the UK and Scandinavia.

This will mean that the UK will turn a bit cooler and wetter again, similar to the end of June, with occasional frontal systems moving into the area. However, in this pattern there is a good chance that warm fronts will occasionally bring in some very warm air, especially in the Southeast and East of England. There is a thirty-five percent risk that the high pressure will remain strong over the UK well into mid-July, and this will keep the very warm, sunny, and summer weather in place for longer. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the high pressure, but there are some strong signals that July may end up being much more settled than our rather wet start to the summer so far.

Further ahead

As it looks increasingly likely that early July will see the arrival of widespread summer weather, we will try and pin down how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Short hot and humid spell
  • Further downpours possible
  • Fresher and drier through July

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/21/john-hammond-month-ahead-flash-summer-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

WO (Simon Keeling) sticking his neck out a bit and forecasting 34c next Friday and Saturday. Would come off if some of the model forecasts hold true, but a long way from being decided at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Europe heatwave: 'Remarkably intense' temperatures to sweep continent

Temperatures in Paris could reach 39C, but will feel much higher because of the humid atmosphere.

https://news.sky.com/story/remarkably-intense-heatwave-to-sweep-through-europe-11747925

UK weather: Temperatures set to soar after heavy rainfall this week

Some parts of the UK will see temperatures of 33C (91.4F) by the end of the week, after thunderstorms hit the UK.

https://news.sky.com/story/weather-temperatures-set-to-soar-after-heavy-rainfall-this-week-11747763

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled into mid-July but dry spells too

_________________________________

Saturday 22 June – Sunday 30 June

Turning wetter before heating up for the week

After a fine and dry Saturday, things will turn unsettled from Sunday with rain spreading across the country from the southwest in the afternoon and overnight. Thunderstorms and heavy downpours are expected overnight and through Monday for most, but the far Southeast will likely escape with mostly dry weather. Heading into the working week, low pressure is expected to drift southwest of the UK and linger through the week just west of the Bay of Biscay. This will bring in some very warm or hot air from Spain, through France and up into the UK in an event known as a 'Spanish Plume' which typically brings wet, humid, and hot conditions for most of the UK.

Temperatures are expected to climb for most from our rather cool June and will feel very warm or even hot for most of the country, with the warmest temperatures likely being in the South. The heat will come paired with high humidity, making things feel muggy and even hotter. However, along the East and Southeast coasts, a fresher easterly wind will help provide some relief to the afternoon heat, at least through Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact position of the low pressure centre to the southwest, which will determine how, if anyone, sees heavy rain and thunderstorms through the week. Currently the heaviest rain looks likely to hit Ireland and extreme W Wales but may at times move through Western and Central Britain. The best of the dryness will be in the north and east. The end of the Spanish Plume will come some time into the last weekend of June, but there is low confidence on the exact end date. It does look highly likely that the majority of the working week will be very warm.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 7 July

Cooling off to near normal, but wet again

By the start of July, the Spanish Plume is expected to be over and the heat wave will come to an end. This is due to the jet stream - a current of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - becoming more active and bringing the low pressure system to the southwest into the UK. This means that the weather will turn unsettled and cooler again, similar to what we have seen for most of June. The weather pattern is expected to become westerly with progressive low pressure systems in the North Atlantic bringing some fronts into the UK along with spells of cooler air.

There will likely be a few drier and warmer interludes to break things up, however, especially in the South. Scotland, particularly the northern half, will tend to be cloudier and wetter with fronts tending to linger in the area. High pressure will likely retreat to the southwest near the Azores, and into the Mediterranean, taking the hot and dry weather with them. However, there is a slight risk (around 20%) that near the end of the week and into the weekend a strong ridge of the Azores high pressure will extend northeast into Scandinavia, crossing the UK and bringing in warmer and dryer weather while pushing low pressure systems off towards Iceland.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 21 July

Staying unsettled at first but improving later

The unsettled weather is likely to continue through much of July, and there are indications that it is unlikely we will see any long-lived and sustained high pressure keeping things hot and dry like the previous summer or 2018. However, it does look like we may see a brief respite from the cool and wet summer towards the middle or latter half of the month. Low pressure tracks along the jet stream are expected to remain progressive across the North Atlantic at least through the middle of July. This means the second full week of July will likely still be quite unsettled, with some fronts bringing rain to many, but also some dry and sunny gaps in between. Temperatures will generally be near, or perhaps a touch below, average.

Heading into the third full week of July, the jet stream may begin to wander north and south, which will allow some of the warmer tropical air under the Azores high pressure system to reach into the UK at times when the jet stream heads north. This will bring with it sunnier and drier weather, with temperatures climbing above average. However, we do not expect high pressure to last, and as the jet stream dips southwards high pressure will return to sub-tropical latitudes. This sort of weather pattern is inherently highly unpredictable in the long-range, so day-to-day and even week-to-week details become tricky to pin down with any certainty. There is a risk (20%) that low pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the entire month, keeping things wetter and cooler than summer normally is. However, there is also a lower risk (~15%) that high pressure may become more influential, especially later into July.

Further ahead

We will be able to pin down with more confidence the end of the Spanish Plume heat wave and see how summer-like July will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Heavy rain and flash floods cause travel chaos across Scotland

Edinburgh and Stirling have been hit with flash flooding and thunder with one man stranded on a car roof.

Heavy rain led to disruption in the west of the capital across Bankhead, Clermiston and Corstorphine. Tram services were temporarily shut down in some areas as flood water covered tracks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-48749009

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled for much of July

_________________________________

Wednesday 26 June – Sunday 30 June

Dry, very warm week. Hot Saturday. Wet Sunday.

High pressure extending into the UK from the north-west will keep things fine and dry for the latter half of the working week. There will be plenty of sunshine with some patchy cloud in places, especially in the afternoons. A fresh, northerly breeze on the East Coast of Britain will keep things feeling a bit cooler there. An ongoing heatwave in Europe will stay largely confined to Europe through Friday, with high pressure over the UK preventing the hot air from spreading its way across the whole of the country. However, southwest and central southern England along with south Wales will see some of this air, lifting temperatures into the upper twenties for the end of the week.

The air will also be quite humid, so afternoons will feel a bit muggy out in the sun. Elsewhere it will be less humid, with temperatures nearer to average or a touch below in Scotland. On Saturday, our high pressure block will move off to the east and winds will shift from easterly to southerly, allowing the hot air from France to move up into the UK. Central and eastern counties of England and Southeast Scotland are expected to see highs well above average, with Southeast England reaching up into the low thirties. This air will also be very humid, so Saturday will feel very muggy and oppressive in the afternoon for most. A few sharp showers are expected in the West and across Scotlan,d that may provide a bit of relief. Overnight and into Sunday, a cold front will then sweep across the UK from the northwest, bringing some heavy or thundery showers overnight to the North, but more notably, bringing in some cooler and less humid air for Sunday. Most places will see temperatures return to average, with highs in the low to middle twenties.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 7 July

Wet for a time, but drying out later in the South.

After the cold front on Sunday, the UK will be dominated by a progressive, westerly weather pattern with a cooler westerly breeze bringing scattered showers to westernmost counties through the first half of the week. Scotland will likely see weak fronts keeping the northern half of the country cloudy and damp, with showers for the southern half. Central and eastern counties of England will likely stay mostly dry but with patchy cloud and sunny spells. The odd shower cannot be ruled out, mainly in the Midlands and central southern England. From Wednesday and through the rest of the week and weekend, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in from the southwest, bringing with it some warmer and more settled weather.

Temperatures will likely climb to slightly above average in the South with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and dry weather. However, high pressure will struggle to reach too far north where more persistent lows will linger near Iceland and Scandinavia, so northern Scotland is expected to stay mostly cloudy and damp with weak fronts overhead for much of the time. This high pressure is not expected to be a long-lived feature for the rest of July, and towards the end of the weekend we will likely see it start to slide off to the west or southwest, allowing low pressure to return perhaps as early as Saturday. This will bring in some wetter and cooler weather, although temperatures will not be too far below average so it will still feel warm in the afternoons.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 21 July

Unsettled weather returning for the rest of July.

As high pressure gradually weakens and retreats into the North Atlantic, low pressure tracks are expected to return to the UK into mid-July and linger into late-July, keeping the summer more unsettled, wet, but still warm at times. As the jet stream - a current of fast moving air high in the atmosphere that drives weather systems - dips south into Europe, low pressure centres will move near or over the UK, keeping things cloudier and wetter than a typical July.

There is a risk that we may see one of these low pressure systems drift off to the southwest similar to the last week of June, allowing it to tap into some hot Saharan air and trigger another heat wave. However, confidence is low on this happening, and on any exact dates at this range. There is the chance - around 30% - that high pressure will become more dominant across Central and North Europe, including the UK, bringing in some warmer tropical air and sunnier, drier and more summer-like weather. However, we expected low pressure to be the main weather player for much of July, similar to how it dominated the weather through most of June, making for quite a different summer to what we saw last year!

Further ahead

We will have a good idea of how hot the weekend will get to close June, and take a further look at the expected wet July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

France heatwave: Paris region closes schools

France is starting to close dozens of schools because of a heatwave, with temperatures expected to climb above 40C (104F) in some regions on Thursday. About 50 schools in the Essonne region, just south of Paris, are being shut, as they lack sufficient air conditioning.

On Thursday, French BFMTV says, schools will also be shut in the Val-de-Marne and Seine-et-Marne regions near Paris. In parts of northeastern Spain the heat is expected to reach 45C on Friday. Germany and Italy are still below 40C

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48770248

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cooling off again
  • Mostly dry for a time
  • Wetter by mid-July

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-fun-sun/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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