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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary
Often fine. Less settled around mid-month though


Circulation patterns over Europe can best be described as "sluggish" at the moment, and the UK has been caught in a warm, humid, unsettled pattern with occasional strong thunderstorms. These conditions will become less likely through the first half of June, and a windier and less warm interlude is expected from around the 10th-11th June through mid-month

Saturday 2 June—Sunday 10 June
Drier early next week, maybe a bit wetter later


The UK will remain under the influence of a warm and humid air mass for a few more days. It will stay unsettled but the threat of the sort of strong storms we've seen recently will diminish. That's going to be especially true over the southern UK, but to the north it will be cloudier with a greater chance of showers or thunderstorms, along with low cloud and mist. The first couple of days of the new week will see a change, with regions towards the east coast likely to be cloudy, misty and cooler with the chance of some patchy drizzle but a lot of dry weather. Meanwhile western regions will have occasional sunshine and warmer conditions.

High pressure will remain situated to the east or north-east of the UK through midweek and into the second half of the week while the jet stream remains weak over the Atlantic with amplified northward and southward diversions. This means that up to the 10th at least we're not expecting any active Atlantic systems to come through, so no strong winds or bands of heavy rain. For a couple of days any precipitation looks likely just to be in the form of some fine drizzle here and there, and it'll be warm in many areas with balmy nights.

By the end of the working week and into the weekend, though, north-western regions are likely to have a weakening frontal system edging across to bring some light rain. Meanwhile the south and southeast will have a risk of a thunderstorm just drifting across from the near-continent, although confidence is low on any threat at this stage.

Monday 11 June—Sunday 17 June
Breezier and cooler


Our forecast expectation of a warmer and calmer June than normal does not preclude interludes of windier, wetter and less warm weather, and one such change looks possible for the week of 11th to 17th June. During that time there looks to be the month's greatest chance for low pressure areas from the Atlantic to push in some breezier, cooler and occasionally wet conditions but this would also mean less chance of any thundery outbreaks. Although this is the favoured evolution, forecasting this far ahead comes with increasing uncertainty and we like to look at potential alternative outcomes. At the moment it looks like there is about a 30% probability for the early June high pressure pattern to linger through this week and keep conditions warmer and calmer with more sunshine but also a greater
thunderstorm risk.

Monday 18 June—Sunday 1 July
Summery conditions expected to return


Beyond mid-month, and especially heading through the final third of June, the position looks most likely to flip again - the most likely outcome is for further extensive high pressure areas to return, particularly over the southern half of the UK, bringing a return to longer periods of warm or very warm and dry weather. This is the most likely scenario but northern regions could still get brushed by the Atlantic lows at times, and now the alternate evolution will be a 30% chance of the cooler, unsettled westerly types continuing. As it stands just northern regions could be brushed by Atlantic systems at times.

Next Update

Although confidence is increasing slightly on the expected cooler, windier and more unsettled spell during mid-June, its extent and longevity are questionable and we can take another look at that as we get a bit closer to it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK HOT weather forecast: Britain to BAKE in two-week 30C June HEATWAVE to start in 3 days

BRITAIN is about to be thrust back into the furnace as thunderstorms give way to a two-week heatwave heralding the start of a sizzling summer.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/968228/UK-weather-forecast-hot-long-range-forecast-June-2018-Britain-heatwave-Met-Office-summer

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

Why are the BBC almost  delighted  with the weather turning unsettled in their last 2  outlooks on evening?? they are kinda taking the wee-wee. They think their long range forecast of a settled end to Juine and good start to July is nailed on. Arrogant bunch 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Why are the BBC almost  delighted  with the weather turning unsettled in their last 2  outlooks on evening?? they are kinda taking the wee-wee. They think their long range forecast of a settled end to Juine and good start to July is nailed on. Arrogant bunch 

What a nonsensical post, WG...

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

really? take Philip Avery last night. with the comment AT LAST AT LAST AT LAST.  we are gonna get a more meaningful jet stream. we have seen  once the jet dives south  it often stays there for a long time.most people don't want  AT LAST AT LAST AT LAST. Lets hope its not the case and our summer doesn't go downhill from now on.. Because seeing our summers have gone over the last decade.. once it turns unsettled  we very rarely  get out  of it

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
58 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

really? take Philip Avery last night. with the comment AT LAST AT LAST AT LAST.  we are gonna get a more meaningful jet stream. we have seen  once the jet dives south  it often stays there for a long time.most people don't want  AT LAST AT LAST AT LAST. Lets hope its not the case and our summer doesn't go downhill from now on.. Because seeing our summers have gone over the last decade.. once it turns unsettled  we very rarely  get out  of it

Its no more irritating than weather presenters smiling at the prospects of 18c nights. That makes no sense either.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather forecast latest: Britain to be hit by SCORCHING HOT weather system THIS WEEKEND

A BLAST of roasting air from Africa is about to engulf Britain triggering the start of what is shaping up to be a blazing summer. Temperatures will climb over the next couple of days before the mercury rockets back into the 80Fs this weekend.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/971046/UK-weather-forecast-latest-hot-weather-weekend-Met-Office-summer-2018

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 11 June—Sunday 17 June

Turning breezier and more unsettled. Some rain.

The first half of the week will see a ridge of high pressure moving across the UK. This doesn't guarantee dry and sunny weather - some showers are likely - but on the whole it will be relatively settled. However, there have been conflicting signals concerning how long the settled weather will last. There have been indications of a front moving in from the west later on Wednesday, bringing rain to some parts of the country. But whilst there is some uncertainty over how unsettled the weather will be on Wednesday, the second half of next week is much more likely to be wetter, windier and cooler.

Whereas the first half of the week will be relatively settled due to a ridge of high pressure, the second half of the week looks wetter and windier and cooler. This is due to low pressure systems over the North Atlantic Ocean having more of an influence on our weather, something we haven't seen of a little while.
The three main themes are an increasing risk of rain for most parts of the country, but mainly in the north-west; chances of some spells of windy weather; cooler conditions, and although temperatures are only likely to dip to near normal for the time of year it will feel fresher. It is worth stressing that although we are looking at more unsettled weather during the second half of next week, it isn't going to be a washout. There will be periods of largely dry and often sunny weather too. The best of the dry and sunny weather will be in the south and east, where high pressure over mainland Europe is likely to spread across the Channel at times.

Monday 18 June—Sunday 24 June

Settling down as pressure builds

How long will the dry, settled, high pressure dominated weather last? Well, during this week we can ask how long will it remain unsettled. Because whilst low pressure is expected to be around during the middle of the month, there are still signs that after mid-month high pressure will move over the country again. This has been a fairly consistent feature of many medium to long range forecasts issued over the last few weeks. So, we should see the weather settling down after the middle of June. As ever, precise details and timings are difficult at this range. We can say that temperatures look likely to be above normal for the time of year and there are indications of drier, calmer weather. Again, there are no guarantees that this will mean summery weather for the whole country. For example, our recent spell of high pressure brought easterly winds which kept North Sea coasts cloudy and cool.

Monday 25 June—Sunday 8 July

Settled for a time. Cooler and wetter early July.

While there should be a fair amount of dry and settled weather around, there are signs of an Atlantic influence returning at the end of the month and into the start of July, So, we may see another spell of more unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain at times. It is likely to turn cooler with winds swinging around to the northwest at times. However, the summer as a whole is expected to feature a lot of high pressure, so a late June unsettled spell may be fairly short-lived.

Next Update

What can we expect from the forecast as the school summer holidays begin?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK set to bask in temperatures up to 28C amid mini-heatwave

Temperatures at Heathrow reached 25.8C this afternoon and the south is likely to remain warm and sunny over the next few days.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-set-to-bask-in-temperatures-up-to-28c-amid-mini-heatwave-11408755

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 18 June—Sunday 24 June

Warm in the south. Some rain for the north.

On Monday and Tuesday, north-western areas of the UK, including Scotland, Northern Ireland, north-west England and north-west Wales are likely to be breezy with a lot of cloud at times together with patchy rain. Western Scotland could see some more prolonged and heavier outbreaks of rain. Meanwhile, further south and east across the UK, it will be mainly dry with some periods of sunshine and becoming warmer too with highs rising to the mid to high 20s Celsius in places. For the rest of the week, the day to day details become a little more uncertain. However, the overall story will remain the same, with central and southern areas of the UK having a lot of dry and warm weather, probably with some strong sunshine at times. Temperatures are likely to be quite widely into the low to mid-20s Celsius. Further north, it is likely to be breezy at times and less warm with patchy rain but one or two drier days as well.

Monday 25 June—Sunday 1 July

Less warm for a time. Patchy rain spreading south.

For the last week of June, indications are that high pressure is likely to move a little further away, allowing some rain-bearing fronts to move in from the north-west. Therefore, a couple of bands of rain could be expected to spread south-eastwards across the UK. However, the rain could be quite patchy by the time it reaches southern and eastern areas of England. Temperatures are expected to take a tumble for at least a few days, with temperatures falling near or perhaps even slightly below the seasonal average. However, towards the end of the week, we may begin to see high pressure extending north-eastwards again towards the UK. Therefore, there are growing chances of drier, calmer and somewhat warmer conditions re-emerging before the end of the week. Indeed, there may be a change to drier and more settled weather even for northern areas of the UK by then. The main uncertainty is on the timing and extent of any cooler and damper conditions over the UK. Indeed, there do seem to be some chances that high pressure holds across much of the UK, which would lead to a much drier and calmer week over large parts of the country than is currently anticipated.

Monday 2 July—Sunday 15 July

Plenty of settled weather. Generally warm.

Current indications for the first half of July point towards often dry and settled conditions over the UK with some decent periods of summery weather. The reason for this outlook is that an area of high pressure is likely to be often somewhere near, or over, the UK, keeping rain-bearing low pressure areas well to the south and north of the country. Overall, temperatures are expected to be slightly above the seasonal average over the UK with rainfall amounts probably below normal. Indeed, the lack of rainfall could start to become a concern for gardeners. There should also be a lack of windy days. However, the exact positioning of any high pressure areas will dictate the day to day temperatures. High pressure would occasionally be expected to move away westwards to allow a few breezier and cooler episodes of weather to develop in what is expected to be an often warm and dry spell. However, there is also the chance that high pressure occasionally sits overhead or just east of the UK to bring a few hot days at times.

Next Update

We will take another look to see whether central and southern areas could see any significant rainfall before the end of the month or whether it is likely to just end up being mostly dry. And we will look for any clues where the anticipated high pressure areas may end up in early July, which will govern the temperatures then and the chances of any hot weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather next week: ‘Hot humid’ heatwave to BAKE Britain - latest Met Office forecast

BRITAIN will bake in glorious sunshine next week as a "hot and humid" weather front is expected to bathe the UK in light. Here's the latest Met Office forecast for next week.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/976846/UK-weather-next-week-hot-heatwave-latest-Met-Office-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Two-week heatwave with NO RAIN and 86F highs kicks off tomorrow as glorious sun set for England's World Cup clash with Panama on Sunday

  • Temperatures due to hit 83F (28C) today in South East England, before falling again to low-70s F (low-20s C)
  • Mercury will then rise to 81F (27C) by weekend in parts of Britain - and it could reach 86F (30C) next week
  • Parts of central and southern England have had just 5% of average monthly rainfall in the first half of June
  • With little rain on the horizon for these areas, some parts are now on their way to one of their driest on record

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864453/UK-weather-Sizzling-83F-highs-sweep-Britain-week.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Does this mean the return of Met Office weather observers to Heathrow?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/heathrow-contract

Ironic really that they feel the need, after over 30 years without them, of qualified weather observers.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Does this mean the return of Met Office weather observers to Heathrow?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/heathrow-contract

Ironic really that they feel the need, after over 30 years without them, of qualified weather observers.

That's great news John. I remember so clearly my first shift going into that iconic Queens Building ( many years ago before transferring to LGW)  I think it no longer exists but was home for the Met Office team, Customs and Excise, Police and a whole lot of Airlines. Being a simple country lad coming down from Cheshire was all a bit over powering but engaged with some great people who worked there. Remember being housed in a Met Office lodge ( crap ) was great to escape to the greener pastures of Sussex but learnt a lot about aviation/met forecasting. Think the Met Office will provide a great service again on site ( wish I was back 40 or so years ago ) it was great job.

C

Queens_Building_-_geograph.org.uk_-_581458.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

That's great news John. I remember so clearly my first shift going into that iconic Queens Building ( many years ago before transferring to LGW)  I think it no longer exists but was home for the Met Office team, Customs and Excise, Police and a whole lot of Airlines. Being a simple country lad coming down from Cheshire was all a bit over powering but engaged with some great people who worked there. Remember being housed in a Met Office lodge ( crap ) was great to escape to the greener pastures of Sussex but learnt a lot about aviation/met forecasting. Think the Met Office will provide a great service again on site ( wish I was back 40 or so years ago ) it was great job.

C

Queens_Building_-_geograph.org.uk_-_581458.jpg

Ironic that EGLL us going to get observers and also has forecasters after all the problems caused by self briefing and losing all staff at all airports. As part of the Met O union side I along with others spent many many hours trying, along with BALPA, to stop this process. In the end all to no avail.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK HOT weather: Shock chart shows UK to be HOTTER than Spain NEXT WEEK

THE UK is set to bask in swelteringly hot weather next week with temperatures soaring considerably this weekend, a shocking chart revealed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/977995/UK-weather-forecast-BBC-weather-Met-Office-UK-map-hot-temperatures

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 25 June—Sunday 1 July

Sunny and warm, with high pressure dominating

For much of the week, high pressure is expected to remain near-stationary across the UK. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, sunny and increasingly warm; maximum temperatures will widely reach the mid to high 20s Celsius, with areas just to the west of London perhaps soaring close to 30 degrees. During the latter half of the week, high pressure may move into the North Sea, bringing a subtle easterly breeze for southern England, and preventing temperatures from rising as high along the North Sea coast. Elsewhere, temperatures will be at least as high as earlier in the week, and the dry, sunny theme will continue too. By the weekend, high pressure will edge to the north of the UK. An easterly airflow is expected to become established more widely across the country, and it will continue to be very warm or locally hot, with lots of sunshine and further dry weather. However, there are some indications for lower pressure to edge towards the UK from France, potentially bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of the country.

Monday 2 July—Sunday 8 July

High pressure not relinquishing its grip!

The first full week of July will continue to see high pressure dominating across the UK and most of northwest Europe. The main expectations are for high pressure to ridge towards the UK from the southwest, continuing the dry and often sunny conditions experienced during the previous week. Temperatures will remain well above average for all areas, although, once again, eastern coasts of England may be much cooler, due to an onshore flow preventing temperatures from rising significantly. Much of the country should see high temperatures in the mid to high-20s Celsius, with a good chance of locations in southern England nudging 30 degrees once again. Often gentle winds are expected, especially in the north, with easterly winds perhaps giving some breezier days across southern Britain. Some forecasting models indicate a 10-15% risk that high pressure could slide more to the southeast of the UK, allowing an even hotter south or southeasterly airflow to move across the UK. By the end of the week, there is small risk that cooler north-westerly or westerly flows could move across the UK, with high pressure remaining to the south, a scenario which would allow near-normal temperatures and some welcome rainfall.

Monday 9 July—Sunday 22 July

Often sunny and warm, with little rain in sight!

Into the second week of July, there are currently few indications to suggest much will change. Indeed, high pressure still looks like dominating the weather for the UK and much of northwest Europe. Therefore, often dry and sunny weather can still be expected, with temperatures still likely to remain well above the average for most. Slightly cooler conditions may develop for Scotland, as cooler westerly flows from the Atlantic move onshore at times, these may bring some welcome spells of rain too.
Looking towards the middle of July, there is more uncertainty regarding the positioning of high pressure, with the best indications suggesting it will remain just to the north of the UK, which would keep conditions largely dry and warm. However, there is a 25-30% risk that low pressure will become more predominant to the north and west of the UK, a scenario which would bring cool and often windy conditions, with above-average rainfall.

Next Update

How long into July can high pressure maintain such a firm grasp on the Great British Summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK weather: 'Extreme' heat set to cause travel disruption after hottest day

Emergency services also warn of the dangers of swimming in open water in the heat after a man dies and a child goes missing.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-extreme-heat-set-to-cause-travel-disruption-after-hottest-day-11416999

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saddleworth Moor fire declared major incident

Firefighters are tackling a huge blaze at Saddleworth Moor in Greater Manchester as dozens of homes are evacuated.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-saddleworth-moor-fire-declared-major-incident-11418184

Saddleworth Moor fire: Homes evacuated in 'major incident'

More than 50 homes have been evacuated as a huge moorland fire continues to spread in Greater Manchester. The blaze on Saddleworth Moor has been declared a "major incident" and the Army is on standby to step in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-44624021

 

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Saddleworth Moor fire declared major incident

Firefighters are tackling a huge blaze at Saddleworth Moor in Greater Manchester as dozens of homes are evacuated.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-saddleworth-moor-fire-declared-major-incident-11418184

Saddleworth Moor fire: Homes evacuated in 'major incident'

More than 50 homes have been evacuated as a huge moorland fire continues to spread in Greater Manchester. The blaze on Saddleworth Moor has been declared a "major incident" and the Army is on standby to step in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-44624021

 

Yes was walking on Marsden moor on Monday evening, could see the huge plume of smoke to my southwest, this must be one of the largest fires for a long time. And not hard to understand why, whilst in some of the deeper gullies there's still some 'squelch', the top layer of vegetation is absolutely crunchy tinder dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Yes was walking on Marsden moor on Monday evening, could see the huge plume of smoke to my southwest, this must be one of the largest fires for a long time. And not hard to understand why, whilst in some of the deeper gullies there's still some 'squelch', the top layer of vegetation is absolutely crunchy tinder dry.

Given the lack of any recent lightning strikes, I wonder how much that fire is down to the thoughtless activities of eejits on two legs! 

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Given the lack of any recent lightning strikes, I wonder how much that fire is down to the thoughtless activities of eejits on two legs! 

Yes indeed Pete, Fire Incident officer was saying during an interview he suspected either a barbecue/cooking fire or discarded cigarette as the most likely cause..........

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammonds updated blog

  • Heatwave continues into early July
  • Increasing concerns over lack of rain
  • Gradual trend to cooler, showery weather later

https://weathertrending.com/2018/06/29/john-hammond-month-ahead-heatwave-summer/

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