Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Jane Louise]

How about shot gun lightning? Is that similar to bead lightning? Shot gun lightning sounds like childrens cap guns. I think it's very close lightning but I must admit it does scare me a little lol.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Low cloud from the north sea would make any night time storms hard to watch,it often happens during May, this looks to be a daytime convective set-up, any storms dying away at dusk...

I know what you mean- up on the Tyne and Wear coast many of the biggest thunderstorms end up obscured by a layer of sea fog which means you hear the rumbles and see flashes but not a lot else- you miss all of the cloud formations etc.

I don't think I've seen "beads" from lightning before (I certainly haven't found any on my own recordings of lightning from Norwich and various parts of France) but it often happens so quickly that it's hard to realise when they do happen. A very striking example on the video there!

[Sprites]

Why do you think this is a daytime convective set-up?

The charts to me suggest that storms could potentially last well into the night, maybe even initiate during night hours.

This is an excellent example of CGs breaking up into beads (at the end of each stroke)

ok Lets hope its a daytime and night-time thundery set-up lol

with bead lightning, anvil crawlers,and no north sea low cloud...

Edited April 27, 2011 by Sprites

[Harry]

How about shot gun lightning? Is that similar to bead lightning? Shot gun lightning sounds like childrens cap guns. I think it's very close lightning but I must admit it does scare me a little lol.

In a sense JL, yes. Beads are seen when lightning strikes very close, as you are able to see the plasma fragmenting immediately after the stroke. The term 'shot gun' refers to the loud crack associated with lightning striking in close proximity.

But there's no difference between the lightning which causes beads or shot gun thunder - it's just because they're in close proximity (if that makes any sense lol)

[Jane Louise]

In a sense JL, yes. Beads are seen when lightning strikes very close, as you are able to see the plasma fragmenting immediately after the stroke. The term 'shot gun' refers to the loud crack associated with lightning striking in close proximity.

But there's no difference between the lightning which causes beads or shot gun thunder - it's just because they're in close proximity (if that makes any sense lol)

Thanks Harry for explaining it to me. All to do with close range it seems.

[ZONE 51]

You know what? Friday atm looks vaguely reminiscent to the 9th May 2001 - which saw storms develop from the near continent - as my account in the Thunderstorm guide mentions:

Synoptic situation at 00z 10th May 2001:

Friday's fax chart for midday (t+72):

Probably won't pan out that way - despite the synoptic similarity, as any storms will be probably be home-grown on Friday

amazing ,look identical, do you think nick you could paste these two charts next to each other in one image?

[Jane Louise]

The latest from the Met Office for us in the South West:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloud will linger across most parts throughout, with scattered showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. A brisk easterly wind will take the edge of otherwise warm temperatures.

Updated: 1516 on Wed 27 Apr 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_weather.html

Here's hoping!

[Stuart]

The latest from the Met Office for us in the South West:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloud will linger across most parts throughout, with scattered showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. A brisk easterly wind will take the edge of otherwise warm temperatures.

Updated: 1516 on Wed 27 Apr 2011

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Here's hoping!

it look good for you good luck

[Jane Louise]

it look good for you good luck

Thanks Stu. Any luck up your way ?has any of the storm risk increased yet? We still have a couple more days for it all to change!

[Stuart]

Thanks Stu. Any luck up your way ?has any of the storm risk increased yet? We still have a couple more days for it all to change!

no change at my area at all so it look like a let down for me fotr 2nd time this year

[Stormyking]

Hmm we had a Mid level convective shower at around 11pm, only light but spots were really big, thats the 2nd day in a row of Mid level convectiveness about, maybe a sign of things to come haha.

[Jane Louise]

no change at my area at all so it look like a let down for me fotr 2nd time this year

Aww typical. You're in the same boat as me regarding the frequency of storms. Still, as I always say! there's plenty of time yet! We have to be patient Lol. I may not even see anything at the weekend yet but we shall see.

Hmm we had a Mid level convective shower at around 11pm, only light but spots were really big, thats the 2nd day in a row of Mid level convectiveness about, maybe a sign of things to come haha.

Hey SK,

I have a funny feeling the weekend is going to be great for you. It seems the further down South you are there's more chance of potential then the rest of us.

Good Luck my friend.:yahoo:lol

[Stormyking]

Aww typical. You're in the same boat as me regarding the frequency of storms. Still, as I always say! there's plenty of time yet! We have to be patient Lol. I may not even see anything at the weekend yet but we shall see.

Hey SK,

I have a funny feeling the weekend is going to be great for you. It seems the further down South you are there's more chance of potential then the rest of us.

Good Luck my friend.:yahoo:lol

Hello Jane

I hope your right that would be pretty cool, but hey stay positive and you may something as well, do a rain dance or summet loooool

Good luck to you too

[Jane Louise]

Hello Jane

I hope your right that would be pretty cool, but hey stay positive and you may something as well, do a rain dance or summet loooool

Good luck to you too

Now now, I'm always the optimistic one Lol.

I've tried the rain dance running around the field (never worked though) lol Will have to think of something else!

I do feel though we all may do quite well this year. Thanks for the Good luck and it's good luck to everyone else too.

[Stormyking]

Now now, I'm always the optimistic one Lol.

I've tried the rain dance running around the field (never worked though) lol Will have to think of something else!

I do feel though we all may do quite well this year. Thanks for the Good luck and it's good luck to everyone else too.

That is very true and yeh just forget the rain dance I tried too but starting snowing instead :S true story :L

I think we are well over due a good storm year, and its been quite a good start already around the UK, take last weekend for example, Your time will come this year Jane

[virtualsphere]

Both GFS 06Z and 12Z going with negative LI values and increasing CAPE starting over the south east from about mid-day on Friday, and moving / expanding westwards as the day progresses. If the GFS is to be believed, the best potential looks to be early evening over Somerset / Wiltshire area, perhaps. Still time for this to change, but as others have noticed GFS does seem to have been quite persistent about this...

Shame it's not a few hours earlier - it would be fun to see the wedding go with a bang! Anyway some interesting potential here for the south of the country, and maybe some will see storms two bank holiday weekends running.

[Sprites]

There are some sferics in N.W. france ATM not sure if they are heading towards S.W. England though, but i can hear them on the M.W. band.

[Sprites]

There are some sferics in N.W. france ATM not sure if they are heading towards S.W. England though, but i can hear them on the M.W. band.

not sure if its the storms to the east that i can hear... meteocentre was showing sferics in N.W. France ,perhaps it was an error...

[dave48]

Friday looking good for some thundery activity.

Met office going for 'thunderstorms' for friday for my location and 'thundery showers' for saturday. I don't know quite what is required to trigger the 'thunderstorms' forecast but promising anyway.

Looking forward to the new run in a minute but overall GFS still going for plenty of cape and even a little bit of shear this time.

[Stormyking]

I think if any storms move in from the continent on friday Afternoon into the evening and night hours will be semi elevated or Elevated, even with the cloud cover. You don't need that much cape for Elevated Thunderstorms, I remember 25th June 2009 thunderstorms moved up from the South east over here and the lifted was only about 0 to -1 Lifted and about 100-200kg of cape over my area got a good lightning display too

[dave48]

Another good run on the GFS, DLS now widely 10-12, not bad at all, potential for some organisation.

[MP-R]

Both GFS 06Z and 12Z going with negative LI values and increasing CAPE starting over the south east from about mid-day on Friday, and moving / expanding westwards as the day progresses. If the GFS is to be believed, the best potential looks to be early evening over Somerset / Wiltshire area, perhaps. Still time for this to change, but as others have noticed GFS does seem to have been quite persistent about this...

Shame it's not a few hours earlier - it would be fun to see the wedding go with a bang! Anyway some interesting potential here for the south of the country, and maybe some will see storms two bank holiday weekends running.

That's great stuff! We might be just in the right place here in the West Country. Fingers crossed, does need to get a bit more humid though surely as it was quite fresh today with crystal clear blue sky.

[lfcdude]

Both GFS 06Z and 12Z going with negative LI values and increasing CAPE starting over the south east from about mid-day on Friday, and moving / expanding westwards as the day progresses. If the GFS is to be believed, the best potential looks to be early evening over Somerset / Wiltshire area, perhaps. Still time for this to change, but as others have noticed GFS does seem to have been quite persistent about this...

Shame it's not a few hours earlier - it would be fun to see the wedding go with a bang! Anyway some interesting potential here for the south of the country, and maybe some will see storms two bank holiday weekends running.

Wiltshire??? i can only hope.. missed out last weekend... only by like 20 miles damn warminster lol

[richep]

Hope your right with the somerset prediction, not had a storm her since 2009. Definately be keeping an eye on this. Will the chance be greater in the afternoon/evening?

[dave48]

Met office are forecasting thundery showers on thursday night for parts of the SE, there are some big blobs on the invent precip forecast. GFS showing no precip at the moment for thursday night.

A larger threat then for friday it seems and in the west on saturday.

Edit: High res models are breaking out some precip on thursday night and show some low end mid level instability. So quite possibly some heavy showers early friday morning.

Edited April 28, 2011 by dave48