Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[Buzzit]

Invest 90 Looking more likely as time passes

http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html

Models now showing a more NW track

I also highly recommend the following website if you do not know about it, as though Storm is not always right his information is good and he does share / participate in live discussion / radio / webcasts when major hurricanes are approaching the US Coast as to what the path and track etc will be

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

Edited July 27, 2011 by Buzzit

[Iceberg]

An LLCC is now clear from visual image loops and recon should enable TD 4 to start at approx 6-7pm time BST.

However the system is suffering from shear to the north and lack of inflow due to proximity to the Yucatan. Both of these should lessen during the next 12 hrs giving the storm a chance to strengthen.

[Iceberg]

Recon have just flown through the centre at 1006mb and found winds in the 30-34kts region so just shy of TS so far, however clear westerly winds have been found so a confirmed LLCC exists and this is at least TD 4, (update due very soon from NHC), recon might find stronger winds as the NE has not been sampled so far taking it straight to TS Don.

Winds of upto 40kts have been found at surface so this will likely be TS Don.

Edited July 27, 2011 by Iceberg

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, looks like TD4 at least. Busy start to the season with 3rd TC formation in July.

[Iceberg]

Some quite strong winds just found, conservatively all of them are TS strength, and some of the Surface winds (kts) shown in the 3rd column from the right are upto 57kts, this is certainly rain contaminated but is still very very strong.

192800 2157N 08622W 9760 00298 0102 +204 +137 163038 041 038 014 00

192830 2159N 08622W 9768 00287 0102 +192 +136 156041 045 057 022 03

192900 2201N 08622W 9753 00299 0101 +190 +136 159039 040 043 017 00

192930 2203N 08622W 9768 00290 0103 +191 +134 154038 040 041 009 00

193000 2205N 08622W 9752 00304 0101 +195 +133 151038 040 037 009 00

193030 2207N 08622W 9762 00292 0099 +208 +132 151039 041 034 009 00

193100 2209N 08622W 9759 00295 0101 +199 +132 148039 040 037 009 03

193130 2210N 08623W 9760 00293 0100 +191 +131 145039 040 038 007 00

193200 2212N 08624W 9758 00296 0100 +189 +131 145040 041 038 007 00

193230 2214N 08625W 9753 00299 0097 +200 +130 150040 041 037 004 00

193300 2215N 08626W 9764 00290 0097 +212 +130 144040 041 035 002 00

193330 2217N 08626W 9764 00290 0096 +217 +130 146041 042 035 002 00

1

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 1001mb so either the first pass totally missed the centre or pressure is dropping very quickly. Definately a TS though.

[Iceberg]

Out of nowhere we seem to have invest invest 91L, this is currently out in the mid atlantic, with a strong ridge above it's quite far south and a small shift WNW is progged by the models. This far south it's in almost perfect conditions with lots of moisture and low shear. NHC have immediately taken it (literally within and hr of being named) upto orange alert and 30%. Ships takes this to a hurricane when it hits the leeward islands in approx 96 hrs, even the globals are picking up on it a bit at 00Z, GFS makes it Emily just after the leewards.

The Central satellite is the best to watch it on until a floater is in position, but this will likely be later today.

[Iceberg]

It's not often you see models predicting this kind of intensification for a system that was only given invest status a few hrs ago.

[Cookie]

I have a feeling this could be a biggie.

[Iceberg]

You could be right Cookie, GFDL takes this to a hurricane at the leewards as well and then a strong Major CAT 3 into Jamaica, HWRF weakens the region and send her further north into fish territory.

[Cookie]

[Alex95]

Florida weather forecasts telling us to keep an eye on the forecast for early next week, they think there's the chance of that hurricane moving north - hopefully not, I'm happy with these distant evening lightning shows!

[summer blizzard]

Now a 70% chance of development.

Hurricane Ivan repeat? (2004)

[summer blizzard]

Must say that i am suprised how few people there are in this section this year.

Provided 90L makes Tropical Storm before tommorow then we are just 20 days behind 2005 at this stage.

Anybody got the list of the most active seasons to this stage, i would be willing to bet thet we are near the top.

[mezzacyclone]

An interesting weekend watching the inevitable "Emily" forming then?

All eyes on the GOES updates.

Any links to surface pressure n such would be appreciated peeps? (lost all my faves:()

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Good banding, good lower level convergence.

Just needs a defned circulation.

Are the models still forecasting it to 'bomb'?

I thought they removed Emily in 2005?

[Iceberg]

Yep Emily is coming along nicely today, it's just slowly gettings it's act together in a comfortable low shear, high SST environment. I think it has a LLCC tbh, but that the lack of winds stops it from being TD 5 (i.e it's not reached the minmum of 20kts yet.

Tracks are shifting further south, which unfortunately means if it develops its likely to not be a fish and will hit somewhere in the islands.

[Iceberg]

GFS 06Z now creates a CAT 4 at T144, the first time a global has predicted any hurricane in the atlantic this season.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm just a tag worried that we may face another recurve season sith extra-trops hitting Africa/Spain/Us!! I don't know the type of set up favourable for this but I do remember some recurves into the med and on Spain in 05'?

[summer blizzard]

Now 80%.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir4-l.jpg

Iceberg, i think that you are correct in that weak wind gusts are the only thing slowing development.

TD5 inside 24 hours!

[Paranoid]

Just been upped to 90% in the last 5 minutes or so. What are the SSTs and shear levels like along 91L's expected path?

[Cookie]

Just been upped to 90% in the last 5 minutes or so. What are the SSTs and shear levels like along 91L's expected path?

Really good on both counts near perfect conditions

h

[Iceberg]

Good morning to anyone following 91L.

91L looks to be still getting her act together, however it is happening, (NHC have now upped to 100% the chance of a tropical storm in the next 48 hrs, which usually means that an upgrade is imminent).

Just in case anyone is wondering this isn't taking along time to develop, quite often at this size they can take several days to get the central convection sustained for a TD/TS and the envelop for 91L is big (approx 4 times bigger than Don).

Recon are due in later today approx 6-7pm time.

The models are really split, however the first thing to say is that they all forecast her to turn into a hurricane.

The globals have her threatening quite a few places unfortunately leewards, then Jamaica, then PR and then Bahamas. The re-curve should be strong enough due to a trough down the eastern seaboard to prevent anykind of US hit, however it's still very early days.

Anyway certaintly 5-7 days of watching ahead.

On a UK note the models are struggling to place any future Emily at an upper level, with a sharp atlantic re-curve it will almost certiantly re-inforce any ridge across the UK improving our weather, but the models are will not pick up on this for another 2-3 days which is worth remembering in the model thread IMO.

Edited July 31, 2011 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Convection has recently flared around the LLCC on the latest IR loops. Dvorak is now approaching T2.0 and the initialisation for the 06Z models, Ships etc, was 30 kts.

It's now only down to timings as to when NHC declare it and also whether it's a TD or TS, atm 91L is a TD IMO.

If the convective banding can form a proper CDO then we might get some interesting readings by the time recon get in there later today.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

Likely TD5.

Shame its forecast to recurve.