Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[kold weather]

97L moved inland just a bit too fast really, no doubts though that it was strengthening and I wouldn't be all that surprised if it was actually a TD coming into land, certainly had the presentation of a TD as it came in...probably was just 6hrs away from Bret IMO...

[onlyME]

We've got Invest 98L.

Satellite image:

Currently at 20%.

[Cookie]

98L

Code Orange on this system!

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY

MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD

BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE

SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[weatherobsuk]

Recon (aka Hurricane Hunters) will be dispatched to this INVEST for preliminary data, looks like the NHC are keeping a close eye on this with its close proximity to FL and no doubt for interests concerning NASA's ongoing Shuttle schedule.

000

NOUS42 KNHC 161715

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

115 PM EDT SAT 16 JULY 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 17/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 17/1615Z

D. 29.2N 78.6W

E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

A. 18/0600

B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE

C. 18/0300Z

D. 29.0N 78.5W

E. 18/0500Z TO 18/0900Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY

FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[SkyWarnUK]

Recon currently investigating this system. Latest reports suggest sustained winds of at least 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1010mb. If the circulation is closed NHC may upgrade to a TS this evening.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, they are finding west winds which indicate the circulation is closed or in the process of doing so, the next update from the NHC will be very interesting.

[weatherobsuk]

Bret now looking to turn North on the latest MIMIC loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_02L/webManagerIR/displayGifsBy12hr_02.html

I think it's going to be one of those systems that goes in favor of finding its environment than relying on multiples favouring themselves together. With the slack steering the only thing that's limiting Bret into turning to CAT1 is the drier air up to the NW, however timed well that front could end up missing the system completely with more convective initiation already underway across mid-state FL as the sun is already up.

Little sign of banding as there was yesterday mainly due to the nocturnal temps keeping things abated somewhat, but don't be too surprised to see Bret as a CAT1 by the end of today if the inhibition can be put in place on that Western edge.

[Cookie]

98L became Bert

we now have 99L

[Somerset Squall]

I've been watching this disturbance along with Bret. In fact, the decaying cold front that spwaned Bret seems to have produced multiple low pressure areas, as you can see in Cookie's animation (another two appear east and northeast of 99L). 99L is showing good rotation, and for now at least, some deep convection. Shear is high however, and I don't rate 99L's chances highly for becoming a tropical cyclone.

Edited July 19, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Paranoid]

99L has just been upgraded to 60%, so we might see TD3 out of this fairly soon.

[Somerset Squall]

Perhaps I was a little harsh to write 99L off so quickly, convection certainly seems to be persisting near the LLC which has become better defined. Long term development potential is poor, but 99L may become a TD/TS prior to reaching cold waters in a day or two.

[Paranoid]

99L now at 90%, could briefly become a tropical or subtropical storm before it hits the colder waters.

[Cookie]

99L became Cindy

We now have 90L

[Iceberg]

Morning All,

90L looks pretty decent for a tropical wave and a classic atlantic hurricane path if anything does develop i.e straight through the leewards into the Caribbean then with a strong ridge above it a slow recurve into the GOM. So if it does develop a good 2 weeks of watching.

Anyway we still need something to happen, but a good chance IMO.

[Somerset Squall]

Up to 30% risk of TC formation in the next 48hrs according to NHC this morning. Convection is increasing but there is no sign of an LLC at present. However, conditions are marginally conducive for some slow development unless the track takes 90L over Hispaniola which will likely disrupt development.

[Cookie]

90L

Not looking great at the moment and is struggling that is for sure.

[Somerset Squall]

90L is passing over Hispaniola proving heavy rains here which could cause flooding. The track over land is preventing development, and 90L is expected to pass over Cuba next. Therefore, NHC only forecast a 10% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs.

[Coast]

99L became Cindy

NASA Catches 3 Tropical Cyclones at One Time: Bret, Cindy and Dora

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-07/nsfc-nc072211.php

In recent days, the temporary strengthening of convection on the tropical seas, including the eastern Pacific and Atlantic, has encouraged the formation of large storm systems that have managed to develop into tropical systems over the tropical Atlantic organizzati.Durante week has seen the formation of two different storms, "Bret" and "Cindy." The tropical storm "Bret", the second of the season, has developed off the eastern coast of the United States, in the full Atlantic. The system, strengthening temporarily as a tropical storm, was forced to move to north/northeast, traveling about a hundred miles off the "East Coast" USA, along the western edge of the Azores subtropical anticiclone. "Bret" during his maximum intensity is able to trigger strong winds, up to 65-70 kmh.

Going northward, however, has led to very cold surface waters that have caused a rapid weakening, so that in a few hours has been squandered in the heart of 'Atlantic occidentale. More incredible, but the formation of tropical storm that originated in fairly high latitudes, at the 37' parallel north, on the surface of only +25 ° +26 ° (note that hurricanes can originate only of water in excess of +27 ° ). After its formation, the tropical storm "Cindy" has moved north-east on the north Atlantic, pushing the waters of a lot colder than anticipated a rapid weakening to a simple depression tropicale. Nelle next hours, "Cindy" should continue to move north-east, remained confined in the middle of the North Atlantic, rather than high latitudes of the disturbance type tropical. Questo particularly because it will cause a substantial and further weakening, so that the system would lose all its tropical characteristics starting to turn into a deep extratropical cyclonic area type attached by strong westerly winds at altitude that quickly push off the British Isles in the form of a large body capable of dispensing cloudy rain and strong winds spread from quadrants South-Western.

Meanwhile a new wave African (Invest 90L), 400 miles east of the Antilles islands, is moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 to 20 mph. This wave is generating a limited amount of time for the strong presence of large amounts of dust and dry air from the Sahara. In the next few hours, this area of ​​disturbance will spread heavy rain and strong winds to the north of the Lesser Antille. Dry air from the Sahara, which will invade the tropical Atlantic, will continue to be a problem for 90L. Only Invest 90 tomorrow, when you meet a lot more humid air near the Bahamas, could develop and evolve in a more organized tropical system, able to bring heavy rains and thunderstorms in the area between the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of Florida.

Translated from:

http://www.meteoweb.eu/2011/07/nuovi-sistemi-tropicali-in-formazione-tra-pacifico-e-atlantico/68574

[Cookie]

Nice photo thanks coast

[Iceberg]

I really like 90L still it did look rather ropey for awhile, but it's now situated to the south of Cuba and is showing clear evidence of circulation and come persistent convection, which might be warm core generated.

IMO this will start to take off today and NHC will quickly raise it from it's 10%.

Longer term it's travelling quite slowly so just about has time to become the first hurricane of the season, gut hunch atm is slightly further north than the model consensus so a Texas hit to the north of Corpus, lots of good virgin heat content available and the ridge isn't as strong as it seems to possibly a further northward shift than it being indicated.

Anyway, before all this happens we need the invest 90L to develop and we are looking at a critical 48hrs now as the environment is actually quite good.

[Iceberg]

NHC have upped it to 20% in the first update, it still looks to be getting it's act together for me.

Systems can flatter to deceive in this part of the Caribbean but.....

[Iceberg]

Another quick update the 12Z's have initialised her and GFDL and HWRF are now in the loop, GFDL takes a weaker system into northern Texas, HWRF a CAT1/2 into the corpus region. HWRF seems to have initialised best out of the 12Z's with the best location of the centre, this means it misses the Yucatan and so has more strengthening.

As expected NHS have continued to increase the chances of 90L and it's now upto Orange at 30%, so quite a big change from 12 hrs ago.

They mention no LLCC, however I really think it's only a matter of time with a good chance it will be there in the morning.

[Cookie]

really is just a wait and see with this system at the moment.

Edited July 26, 2011 by cookie

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

I would honestly be suprised if this is not TD4 within 18 hours.

[Iceberg]

Upto 70% chance now by the NHC which has it as a Red Alert.

This is still a very small system, NHC are not sure it has a surface circulation, although it certainly does at mid and upper levels. This will become a TD or TS later today though, not least because Recon are due to go in later, but also that all the evidence is pointing towards a vertically stacked circulation.

Shear is due to remain low and SST's are 30+ across most of it's track until landfall in approx 3 days time, so conditions are very favourable.

This is not going to be a big system due to the lack of moisture available, however the small size could lead to some rapid intensification once it gets going.

The latest models are attached. The 00Z GFDL takes him into northern Texas (galveston area), HWRF a more southerly route into the Corpus area, HWRF maintains it's thoughts of the first hurricane and hurricane US strike of the season.