The Midlands - Late Winter/early Spring Discussion Part 21

[Costa Del Fal]

Many ECM ensemble members actually support the OP run this evening with the control even colder. Lol.

But the model is too on its own for my liking at the moment. Very drizzly and dull today but would have felt very nice if it was sunny.

[Strider]

Another rather dreary day today, mild, but monotonously dull.....I notice the ECM's thrown a wobbler thus sending the model thread into meltdown for the Coldies, but for me, it would take far more than one run to give me any excitement of a wintry spell, but never say never I guess?

I'm looking forward to the 00z coming out when it will probably show a Bartlett the way it's been flip-flopping

No doubt though the 12z will be taken as gospel and any future milder runs "thrown in the bin" :lol:

We're definitely due for a colder spell though. I've seen a LRF for the NAO which is predicted to go sharply negative into March

[Costa Del Fal]

Im pretty certain winter is over now. The rest of February looks Atlantic dominated with the High to NE looking very unlikely now to last or affect us. The first 1/3 of winter was the best ive ever known but the final 2/3 have been the worst and most boring ive known for a long time. Even pre 2007 winters were better than this. A totally rubbish 2nd half to winter but will still be salvaged by the awesome December.

I so hope Spring and Summer makes up for this but it seems like were having a lot of "boring" seasons at the moment with very few extremes. Not sure if i can stand many more boring periods like this. It feels like a waste of time and puts you off or at least puts me off the weather.

If 2011 is very poor for Thunderstorms too then i dont have anything more to say.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Blizzards

[A.J]

Im pretty certain winter is over now. The rest of February looks Atlantic dominated with the High to NE looking very unlikely now to last or affect us. The first 1/3 of winter was the best ive ever known but the final 2/3 have been the worst and most boring ive known for a long time. Even pre 2007 winters were better than this. A totally rubbish 2nd half to winter but will still be salvaged by the awesome December.

I so hope Spring and Summer makes up for this but it seems like were having a lot of "boring" seasons at the moment with very few extremes. Not sure if i can stand many more boring periods like this. It feels like a waste of time and puts you off or at least puts me off the weather.

If 2011 is very poor for Thunderstorms too then i dont have anything more to say.

Another one for the NW Suicide Watch list! ........................:lol:

[Costa Del Fal]

:lol: Im too busy for that. I said i wouldnt complain after December and i have stuck by that however no one can say since Christmas winter has played ball.

However all is not lost as im certainly in Spring phase now and so am all up for some very mild weather. Maybe i can ditch the coat on some days soon.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Spring here now, 13.5C max and sunnyish, staying springlike for rest of feb, but had a very good winter, Snow meant to be at Xmas time, and was when we got it, certainly not winter now as the sun lifts the temps as in summer effect

[Costa Del Fal]

The other day i mentioned how the sun seemed to have the first bit of proper warmth in it. This will become increasingly so from about now and even more so in a couple of weeks time. Looking forward to those longer days now. Hopefully Iceland at the beginning of April will give me a last little reminder of our Winter snow this winter until the 2011/12 season.

[Gord]

If I was told beforehand that winter 2010/2011 was going to have just one severe spell of winter weather, and I could choose December, January or February to have it in....I would have picked December. So in that respect, it's turned out alright!

[Snowyowl9]

Heres your spring temps for next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png

Plenty more chances for snow yet look at april 1998/april 2000 heaviest snowfall of the winter then.

April 1989 and March 2006/March 2008 easter snow/april 2008 a greenland high more snow.

There again you can have lovely spring warmth from a S/SE flow.

But SW-lys see enough of those in July to give a long autumn.

A bitter easterly could still come yet,you ain`t seen nothing yet,december was nothing to what a true easterly can bring.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely spring now, sun strong enough to create convection, showers breaking out now over midlands, 10C and sunny with convection dosent happen in winter

half term week could potentially be 18°C with bartlett type high

[Costa Del Fal]

I doubt it would be quite that warm though technically possible i know. Very unlikely though. However, very nice day today and yes, convection is back although of course rather weak.

[Snowyowl9]

definitely spring now, sun strong enough to create convection, showers breaking out now over midlands, 10C and sunny with convection dosent happen in winter

half term week could potentially be 18°C with bartlett type high

Feb 1998 would give 18c now that was a record warm spell that month similar to feb 1990.

7c here today.

There was convection by the truckload in february 2005 with snow showers.

Yes a few decent cumulus today only the first of the year which is later to normal.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[Costa Del Fal]

A pleasant 12c here. Great for walking the dog today. Just right for this time of year.

[Barbmac]

A pleasant 12c here. Great for walking the dog today. Just right for this time of year.

Lovely day here as well, sunshine, light wind, temp currently 6.6^oC. Looks like rain on the way though so not going to stay dry for long.

[Static Prevails]

It's apparently 0.6C here according to a local school weather station. Is it really that cold or is it innaccurate?

[Strider]

It's apparently 0.6C here according to a local school weather station. Is it really that cold or is it innaccurate?

Hmm seems unlikely, I'm 25 miles south of you and it's "officially" 4.3c

[A.J]

Providing you understand the lingo, it's worth popping into the model thread if you're a snow lover.......The models seem to have had something of a 'switcheroo' the past 24 hours, and the latest runs infer a battleground snow event next weekend, with our region right in the midst of it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Providing you understand the lingo, it's worth popping into the model thread if you're a snow lover.......The models seem to have had something of a 'switcheroo' the past 24 hours, and the latest runs infer a battleground snow event next weekend, with our region right in the midst of it

I feel it will be an outlier though, ensembles not as good, have the atlantic powering through

[A.J]

I feel it will be an outlier though, ensembles not as good, have the atlantic powering through

which of course is in FI, thus taken totally with a pinch of salt, but still the models are showing encouraging signs for snow lovers, well at least until the 00zGFS

Edited February 12, 2011 by ajpoolshark
keyboard dyslexia!

[conor123]

Personally for me something like the 18z with a nice big snow event that doesnt stick around to long would be ideal.

[picog]

Snow versus mild still not settled on the model thread. Looks like more inclined to mild this morning — would be nice to have another decent fall of snow while we are still in winter. Once March is here, the garden sort of takes priority, so snow is not good.

[weatherguy]

Still the chance of a battleground over the midlands, can't see this being resolved exactly until T+0 though, at least the chance for some snow remains before winter is over

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I like the GFS 12Z cold and dry mainly from 17th Feb, trouble is it is a pressure outlier, was dreading 4 days of heavy rain (17-20 Feb) but could well still happen, so still am dreading the possible non stop rain 17th-20th feb

[A.J]

well, when it comes to possible frontal snow next weekend the models sure are in confused state.......GFS last night said no, now it says quite possibly.....ECM last night said Siberia's on its way, now says not on your nelly...Now I'm so confused, I don't know what my name is or where I come from! :blink:

[LeeKay]

So a good day for cloud spotting tomorrow and Tuesday. That's good enough for me! I will leave next weekend in FI for now. Cameras at the ready