Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

cookie

Atlantic Lows - general discussion

Recommended Posts

Its certainly looking interesting considering we havent had much in the way of wind this winter so far,late thursday early friday morning is looking like its worst here according to NW there says gusts of nearly 80mph for my location :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been watching this storm progress through the charts since Friday night.

Below is what I've found the charts have been saying over the last few days.

Friday 18z output had 80-90mph wind gusts over 100mph for Friday at 6am.

post-6686-0-79115700-1296492546_thumb.pn

Saturday afternoon on the 12z run said 50-60mph gusts 70-80mph. So a slight downgrade for Friday also a time change from 6am to 3pm.

During Saturday night the 18z said for Friday 60-70mph gusts 80-90mph. But moved the worst of the storm from 3pm to 9am.

Sunday morning showed a downgrade in winds again similar to what was being said on Saturday afternoon but moved the worst of the storm from 9am Friday to Wednesday 9pm.

Sunday afternoon on the 12z run showed a higher winds.

And on Sunday night on the 18z run similar to the 12z but just a slightly higher wind speed.

Monday the 00z run showed a big downgrade on the wind.

But on the 06z run this morning showed the biggest change yet.

post-6686-0-31395700-1296493338_thumb.pn

Finally the latest 12z released this afternoon shows a downgrade from this morning.

Just thought I would give you all a little history on what's been happening. I will post up my forecast tonight after the 18z run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been watching this storm progress through the charts since Friday night.

Below is what I've found the charts have been saying over the last few days.

Friday 18z output had 80-90mph wind gusts over 100mph for Friday at 6am.

post-6686-0-79115700-1296492546_thumb.pn

Saturday afternoon on the 12z run said 50-60mph gusts 70-80mph. So a slight downgrade for Friday also a time change from 6am to 3pm.

During Saturday night the 18z said for Friday 60-70mph gusts 80-90mph. But moved the worst of the storm from 3pm to 9am.

Sunday morning showed a downgrade in winds again similar to what was being said on Saturday afternoon but moved the worst of the storm from 9am Friday to Wednesday 9pm.

Sunday afternoon on the 12z run showed a higher winds.

And on Sunday night on the 18z run similar to the 12z but just a slightly higher wind speed.

Monday the 00z run showed a big downgrade on the wind.

But on the 06z run this morning showed the biggest change yet.

post-6686-0-31395700-1296493338_thumb.pn

Finally the latest 12z released this afternoon shows a downgrade from this morning.

Just thought I would give you all a little history on what's been happening. I will post up my forecast tonight after the 18z run.

Certainly big changes in it, during the last few days i hope it gets upgraded i might sound sad but im excited for a good storm havent had a really good one for a while lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think the the GFS has gone a little insane with its current wind projections!:

post-9715-0-73625600-1296512374_thumb.pn

Interesting thing about this run is that it models dry air intrusion at 500hPa along with modest low-level instability during the same period when the strongest winds are expected to occur. Transport those winds at that level (associated with the mid-upper level jet streak) to the surface via convective downdrafts and you'll have a real mean storm.

Obviously too much detail at this stage from one model run. Just imagining what it'd be like if those winds were modelled to hit the southern half of the UK! Would certainly get the heart pumping, that's for sure! :lol:

Are you saying its inaccurate then? If so that's a relief I'm right in its path.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

could we just have the snow back could definatly do without an up grade :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well some very interesting and scary looking charts for the end of the week, widespread severe gales in the north and west uk 70mph+ gusts, northern scotland potentially having very severe gales gusting 100mph, the gfs takes a hurricane close to the top of scotland with MEAN wind speeds 70-75mph progged by the gfs in the northern isles... a step to far for the gfs. :help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z downgraded it a bit.

And the 06z continued to downgrade it.

I'm still unsure on what we can expect one minute we could see a bad storm the next just a very very windy day.

Met Office have released a weather watch for Thursday and Friday saying 80 to 90mph gusts.

Early morning snow showers will give way to heavy rain accompanied by very strong winds with gusts to 80 or 90 mph possible, especially over exposed coasts and hills.

Very strong winds will gust to around 80 to 90 mph especially across the exposed Northern Isles. These conditions will ease during the morning and give way to heavy, squally wintry showers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was wondering if the 12z was an upgrade or a downgrade from the 06z. After checking over both of them I can say the 12z is another downgrade only by about 7mph though for the gusts and 2mph for average wind speeds.

12z showing Thursday 9pm. I expect gusts to be in their 60's to 70's but 80mph is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was wondering if the 12z was an upgrade or a downgrade from the 06z. After checking over both of them I can say the 12z is another downgrade only by about 7mph though for the gusts and 2mph for average wind speeds.

12z showing Thursday 9pm. I expect gusts to be in their 60's to 70's but 80mph is possible.

Indeed Sean. It may be a slight downgrade but, as you say, it's still quite significant

Here is the GFS 12z wind gust chart for the same period:

post-5487-0-70757700-1296581846_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

latest marine forecast issued, makes tasty reading for someone whos flying on a plane tomorrow that can only fly in winds less then 50 mph

Hebrides

Gale warnings - Issued: 1017 UTC Tue 01 Feb

Southwesterly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon, increasing storm force 10 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1725 UTC Tue 01 Feb

Wind

Southwesterly 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 in northwest, perhaps violent storm 11 in far northwest later.

Sea State

High or very high.

Weather

Rain then squally showers.

Visibility

Moderate, occasionally poor.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Hebrides

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z has upgraded. One thing the GFS is getting a hang of is the time for when its meant to arrive and be at its worst at 9pm on Thursday night. 18z is the only run today to do a upgrade every other one has downgraded it more and more.

Latest 18z for Thursday 9pm.

That being all said its still a huge downgrade from the 18z last night!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very windy weather for the end of the week with damaging swathes of winds thursday evening and night with a 2nd swathe friday evening onwards.

Nothing compared to where my brother is right now, south of cairns in queensland with cat 5 cyclone yasi about to hit, gusting around 180-190mph. Current central pressure 922hpa, wind was picking up last time i spoke to him.

Latest BOM yasi update http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt

post-9615-0-27133600-1296601941_thumb.pn

post-9615-0-85524700-1296601955_thumb.pn

post-9615-0-34477900-1296602147_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z still agrees around 9pm on Thursday it will be at its worst. However we have seen a downgrade of about 10mph since the 18z.

Latest 00z For Thursday 9pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An upgrade from the 06z of about 8mph but to the north west of Scotland near Stornoway I would say that's a bit upgrade of 20mph. I noticed Met Office Invent map was saying gusts of 108mph for Stornoway at 6pm on Thursday. Will be interesting to see what the 12z and 18z have to say about this later on in the day as we get closer to Thursday.

Latest 06z. Friday 12am.

post-6686-0-02255200-1296652639_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z has downgraded it but has moved the worst of the storm right over the Western Isles. Uist and Stornoway look to get the worst of it. However looking at the 06z and 12z lots have changed wind direction, size and speed of the storm. I think the GFS still hasn't made up its mind on what we can really expect. But all runs still agree from 3pm Thursday to about 6am Friday this storm is going to be here.

Latest 12z. For Friday 12am.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi guys Ive been watching this baby for about 6 days now, and its been up and down as far as the models are concerned. I think alot of uncertainty exsists as to how deep it wil go. I have noticed all day long that METO havent given a pressure chart for thursday, which make me suspect that they are thing bomb cyclonegenesis.

It certainly looks like conditions are right for such an event.

Batten down the hatches guys on the western isles... looks like you could be in for a right good blow... Id say the best blow of the winter.

We have thunder and lightening right now seen 12 big flashes and one directly overhead.

My lucky day!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the Western Isles a downgrade for the wind speeds from the 18z. But watch out Shetland 18z has put you in its path.

post-6686-0-00968200-1296683861_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the Western Isles a downgrade for the wind speeds from the 18z. But watch out Shetland 18z has put you in its path.

post-6686-0-00968200-1296683861_thumb.pn

Are those mean wind speeds? (ie 90mph+ for Shetland, with some significantly higher gusts?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are those mean wind speeds? (ie 90mph+ for Shetland, with some significantly higher gusts?)

Mean wind speeds. Gusts could be well over 100mph for Shetland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting to get more accurate now for wind speed and position of the storm. 18z, 00z and 06z all agree on the same thing.

Latest 06z. For Thursday night. Shetland could still see gusts up to 100mph into early Friday morning.

post-6686-0-93718100-1296726424_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gusting 70 mph back at home already, really wish I was at home for this storm but stuck in glasgow :(

Hurricane force 12 and phenomenal on the shipping forecast over night, this is some storm. I wouldn't be at all suprised if we see 100 mph out of this storm.

lewis going into lock down by the looks of things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After been fairly calm.... getting really windy here now 4.9mph an hour ago, 27.7mph now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wind really picking up here on the cumbrian coast, looking to peak here about 6pm with 75mph possible as a top gust. You guys in N and W Scotland are in for a pounding from this beast :help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very windy here now. Must be pretty wild north of here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...