Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Recommended Posts

The active period continues in the South Pacific, with the formation overnight of Yasi, with intensity at 40kts. Yasi is located north-northeast of Vanuatu, and formed from invest 90P. Yasi is moving westwards quite briskly along the northern periphery of subtropical ridging to the south. As this ridging is expected to remain strong, this westerly motion is expected to continue. In 48hrs time, Yasi will reach the western periphery of the ridge and turn towards the southwest.

Yasi is expected to strengthen. The cyclone already has some deep convection over the LLC and good formative banding features. Shear is low, waters are very warm along track and outflow is impressive in all directions. With conditions as favourable as this and the fact Yasi has quite a lot of warm water to move through, Yasi could become quite intense. I wouldn't like to say exactly how strong, but JTWC are plumping for 110kts at present, with a remark this could be too low. A 110kt peak is a very aggressive forecast for a first warning. My experience is that this value usually rises (if the environment remains favourable) with successive warnings.

With the track I've described and the favourable environment ahead, Yasi is a major threat to Queensland, especially after recent flooding (and TC Anthony currently near landfall on the Queensland coast). Yasi is a large cyclone which will probably therefore bring widespread flooding again, and to a wider area. Yasi will likely bring some very damaging winds too; 110kts is enough for anyone but Yasi could be even stronger than this. I hope everyone in Queensland is getting prepared for this storm. Models have been predicting Yasi's formation and landfall for at least a few days now, so hats off to them. Hopefully this fact has given Queenslanders a little more warning. Exact landfall location will change no doubt, but Cairns look to be in the path of the eye at present (and subsequently the strongest winds). This may change, but regardless, large swathes of eastern and even interior Queensland are in trouble here. Let's hope that ridge to the south breaks down sending Yasi out to sea. Currently, that's not looking likely.

It will certainly be an interesting watch but a scary one too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yasi is intensifying quickly. Intensity has risen to 55kts, and the system looks poised to strengthen further as banding is excellent and convection is deep over the LLC.

post-1820-0-95336400-1296408370_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its getting its act together

IDX1299.gif

this is a bit worrying, got a bad feeling bout this one

20110130.2232.mtsat2.x.vis1km.11PYASI.60kts-978mb-134S-1660E.100pc.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I share your concerns Cookie. If we do see this lumber into Queensland then it is the type of event that brough the last 'major Flooding' into the area back in the Early 1900's. Back then they had not just had a 'major flooding event' when the Cyclone hit home!

The other thing being that there looks to be a chance of other Cyclones doing similar over the rest of the season down there?

With the amount of flooding in the southern hemisphere this Southern Summer already we know that the 'conditions' for rainfall events are in place even without them being driven by Cyclones so what happens when one of these 'Bad Boys' does decide to dump its load over flood stricken areas?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know whereabouts in Queensland Yasi is expected to hit. My sister in Brisbane said that there is quite a bit of concern about this cyclone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know whereabouts in Queensland Yasi is expected to hit. My sister in Brisbane said that there is quite a bit of concern about this cyclone.

Its not pretty to look at if you live between Cairns and Townsville.

A very strong Cat 4 looks to be on the cards, considerable more than though a little while ago with winds hitting 130-150mph sustained, (stronger the building regs allow for out their), I have a friend currently living in Cairns and will facebook him to see what it's like.

However the size of Yasi is large enough to make the rainfall and surge a problem elsewhere.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn.jpg

It is due to RI over the bext 24 hrs going from 963mb to 932mb

Surely thats not right over 3000 views for a thread that only has 6 posts and only started yesterday.....IF it is right then bloody hell...

post-6326-0-05055600-1296483285_thumb.gi

post-6326-0-49556400-1296483619_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see that these systems don't curve as much as hurricanes hitting America. Looks like a monster about to hit though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, strong CDO, lots of moisture, deep high SST's, good structure with the eye in the centre, indicative of little shear.

All support "a monster".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

eeeek, look at the size of it :o

And it got at least 24hrs of rapid intensification over the Coral sea before it hits land!!!

They are talking feet of rain over a couple of days!!!

Not what a saturated queensland needs right now!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yasi is undergoing rapid intensification as already mentioned. Intensity has risen to 90kts, making Yasi a solid cat 2 on the SS scale. Scarily, I wouldn't rule out Yasi becoming a cat 5 on both the SS scale and Australian scale. Conditions are ideal with an anticyclone aiding strong outflow and very low shear being present aloft. Add to that sea temps in excess of 30C and you have the ingredients for a very powerful system. Yasi's size is of big concern too, the flooding will be very widespread unfortunately, a long way from the system's centre. A very concerning storm indeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like the Aussie press is waking up to a much more powerful storm than 24 hrs ago.

Not much change in the last few hrs though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest path from the BOM and discussion.

Yasi is now a CAT 3 with sustained 220km winds raising to CAT 4 250kms winds at landfall.

It looks to have been adjusted northwards slightly, making a close hit on Cairnes.

The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west over the Coral

Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities

between Cape Melville and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, extending to adjacent

inland parts east of Richmond on Wednesday afternoon.

People between Cape Melville and Yeppoon, and adjacent inland parts east of

Richmond should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone

threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [sES] on

132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on

buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 158.4 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour

.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

.Severity category........ 3

.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,

particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State

Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 01/0600: 14.3S 154.9E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 949

+24: 01/1800: 15.4S 151.5E: 095 [175]: 100 [185]: 944

+36: 02/0600: 16.4S 148.1E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 939

+48: 02/1800: 17.5S 145.2E: 160 [295]: 065 [120]: 976

+60: 03/0600: 18.9S 142.1E: 210 [385]: 035 [065]: 992

+72: 03/1800: 19.8S 139.6E: 255 [470]: 030 [055]: 998

REMARKS:

Centre embedded within White to give DT 5.0. MET 5.0 with PAT 5.0. FT based on

DT. Improved organisation with rapid development during last 6 to 12 hours.

Expect system to continue intensifying within favourable environment of low

shear and good upper outflow.

post-6326-0-66224400-1296505286_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like Yasi is taking a breather on it's strengthening as it zones in on a direct Cairns hit.

The Cyclone itself has much better outflow in all quads, with the outer bands probably hitting the Aussie coast in around 12 hrs time.

The inner structure of Yasi though does not look any better than 12-18 hrs ago, the eye has not cleared(although visuals show it partially cleared at times) and the CDO looks less pronounced. Based on the above I would say anything between a CAT 3 or 4 looks possible with the BOM still forecasting a CAT 4 in the latest update.

"FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 01/1200: 14.6S 153.0E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 950

+24: 02/0000: 15.8S 149.6E: 080 [150]: 100 [185]: 944

+36: 02/1200: 16.7S 146.0E: 110 [205]: 105 [195]: 938

+48: 03/0000: 18.0S 142.7E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 987

+60: 03/1200: 19.2S 140.0E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 999

+72: 04/0000: 20.5S 137.4E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1002

REMARKS:

Yasi continues to develop assisted by a environment of low shear, good upper

level outflow and high ocean heat content [sST]. Dvorak based on ongoing

embedded centre in white to give DT 5.0 although adjusted MET and visibile

analysis indicates 4.5. FT/CI maintained at 5.0. Mean winds estimated at 85

knots [top end 5.0] supported by SATCON [95 knots 1min mean] as CIMMS AMSU

estimates are higher than ADT.

Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflow

environment persisting until landfall. SSTs are slightly lower on the forecast

track to about 28C but this may not be a sufficient to inhibit intensification.

Forecast motion is steady to the west with a persisting mid-level ridge to the

south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion which may become a

little more WSW in 12-18 hours possibly assisted by some beta affect.

The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are

conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast

track.

With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may

be maintained further inland than normal.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0700 UTC by Brisbane

TCWC."

post-6326-0-64860200-1296543417_thumb.jp

post-6326-0-85835700-1296543442_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-51689300-1296543459_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we have any forecast rainfall figures for Yasi?

Steve Irwins Zoo is just to the of where it looks to be coming through and I've seen the mess a remnant Cyclone can cause and the issues in the croc enclosures as there 'feed' streams overtop (you wouldn't want Agro on your case unexpected like!!!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks nasty<< good luck to my friend sister who lives in Cairns !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although the CDO is smaller today, the eye is clearing out nicely now, and 1 min sustained winds have risen to 100kts, making Yasi a cat 3 on the SS scale. It seems after the arrested development of the last 12hrs or so, that Yasi could be entering another period of intensification. JTWC forecast a peak of 125kts, and I think this is a pretty fair assessment. BOM's latest landfall predicition is right between Cairns and Innisfail, though as previous mentioned Yasi will affect a much larger area than that.

Awesome image you just posted Cookie, shows the eye clearing out. Also shows Ex-Anthony still churning away well inland.

post-1820-0-65909600-1296558912_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Entire suburbs in three north Queensland cities will be evacuated today as Cyclone Yasi powers towards the coast, bringing destructive winds, torrential rain, and massive storm surges.

Yasi is expected to be packing winds of up to 280 kilometres per hour when it makes landfall as a category four system somewhere between Cairns and Innisfail at around midnight (AEST) on Wednesday. Cyclone watch is in place for communities for Cape Melville to Cooktown, and adjacent inland areas east of Richmond. As residents batten down, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has warned that the storm has the potential to be the biggest the state has ever seen. She is also warning residents in low-lying waterfront areas from Innisfail to Mackay that today will be their last chance to get out ahead of the storm's impact.

"We are very concerned about storm surges causing serious powerful flash flooding," she said. "Every council has identified those houses most at risk and if you are in one of those areas, you should be relocating yourself and your family today."That means whole suburbs in some parts of the region will be looking for alternative accommodation with friends and family today. "Today is the last opportunity that people will have to make all the preparations they need to keep themselves and their families safe. "That means that if you are in a low-lying waterfront area, you should be thinking of relocating your family to a friend in a higher place today."

Forecaster Ben Suter says it is still a category three cyclone, but will intensify to a high category four system when it makes landfall, with winds reaching up to 280 kilometres an hour. "We have strong gale force winds extending just north of Cooktown and all the way down to Bowen," he said. "It looks like making landfall on the current forecast somewhere between Cairns and Innisfail and it does still look to be a high category four when it does so. "The current crossing looks earlier as well, maybe around midnight [AEST] Wednesday, going into Thursday." Mr Suter says the cyclone will cause a storm surge. "The worst of any storm surge will probably be Innisfail southwards, particularly around Townsville, even though the charts are further north," he said. "I think even Townsville could see a fairly storm surge. "If this forecast track does actually go a bit further north, than obviously that storm surge risk will transfer northwards."

Maritime Safety Queensland (MSQ) has issued a yellow alert for all boats from Cape Flattery in Cape York to Mourilyan, south of Innisfail, out of the water. All ports from Cairns to Mackay will be closed from late today. Superintendent Brian Connors from the Cairns Disaster Coordination Centre says police, State Emergency Service (SES) and council representatives, met yesterday afternoon and will meet again today.

http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/01/31/3127001.htm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKMwKQozxak

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the article and links Coast, really makes you feel what the people over there are coming up against.

Yasi is definitely ramping up now, the eye is looking well defined and clear on radar:

xxirngms.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick one atm, Yasi is certaintly still strengthening with the eye clearing, although not yet 100% defined.

BOM make it a pacific Severity 4, but the strengthening needs to stop to give this part of Aussie a fighting chance.

REMARKS:

Yasi has intensified in the last 6 hours. The environment of low shear and good

upper level outflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive to

maintaining current intensity. There is the possibility of some further

intensification before landfall.

Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, OW eye] giving DT=6.0,

consistent with adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 100 knots.

Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-level

ridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion.

The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are

conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast

track.

With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may

be maintained further inland than normal.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Brisbane

TCWC.

post-6326-0-72903700-1296570813_thumb.jp

post-6326-0-73044300-1296570822_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • High pressure in the driving seat until at least the end of May

    High pressure continues to dominate our weather until at least early next week, with most staying dry and fine. The warm conditions will spread north, and the highest temperatures will transfer to the west as the high moves east and eventually over Scandinavia. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More warmth and little rain in the forecast as May ends

    HIgh pressure is slipping over the UK bringing settled and dry weather. Light winds before it moves away eastwards at the end of the week and the warmth extends northwards. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...