Australian Weather

[NorthNSW]

First sub-20ºC maximum of the year here today, and (so far) two nights in a row of sub-10ºC minimums. Wintry weather.   (the emoticon is a bit melodramatic, lol. I don't even own a scarf, or beanie, or even gloves/mittens )

Edited May 19, 2013 by NorthNSW

[be cause]

First sub-20ºC maximum of the year here today, and (so far) two nights in a row of sub-10ºC minimums. Wintry weather.   (the emoticon is a bit melodramatic, lol. I don't even own a scarf, or beanie, or even gloves/mittens )

 

Time to go shopping ?

[Styx]

First sub-20ºC maximum of the year here today, and (so far) two nights in a row of sub-10ºC minimums. Wintry weather.   (the emoticon is a bit melodramatic, lol. I don't even own a scarf, or beanie, or even gloves/mittens )

 

 

I reckon I'll have a sub-20 before you have a sub-10.

 

 

You have taken me by surprise as I have been following the daily obs issued by your Smoky Cape lighthouse since you were away, and it occured to me they don't correlate at all with your weekly readings, so I am assuming you are pulling your stats from your own weather station? Anyway whichever way I concede with good grace(!),  a sub 10 now appears unlikely until the wintertime here and further sub 20s are more than likely up there. I am having a guess your station is quite sheltered from the sea in lieu of colder night time readings, and warmer by day under  onshore NE'lies? My observation based on just a quick comparison of the two sets of data!

 

Hobart's lowest maximum thus far is 11.8 ( 4th ).  4 below average for May.

The lowest minimum for the year was this morning at 1.6C ( 6 below ). First light frost in inner Hobart. That was the lowest temperature so early before a winter season since 1994, and up at Liawenee in Tasmania's central plateau, -7C.

 

Oh and those photos are great, quite professional, I like the ones looking toward Canberra  from afar, unique perspective.

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

 

You have taken me by surprise as I have been following the daily obs issued by your Smoky Cape lighthouse since you were away, and it occured to me they don't correlate at all with your weekly readings, so I am assuming you are pulling your stats from your own weather station? Anyway whichever way I concede with good grace(!),  a sub 10 now appears unlikely until the wintertime here and further sub 20s are more than likely up there. I am having a guess your station is quite sheltered from the sea in lieu of colder night time readings, and warmer by day under  onshore NE'lies? My observation based on just a quick comparison of the two sets of data!

 

Hobart's lowest maximum thus far is 11.8 ( 4th ).  4 below average for May.

The lowest minimum for the year was this morning at 1.6C ( 6 below ). First light frost in inner Hobart. That was the lowest temperature so early before a winter season since 1994, and up at Liawenee in Tasmania's central plateau, -7C.

 

Oh and those photos are great, quite professional, I like the ones looking toward Canberra  from afar, unique perspective.

 

Yep from my own weather station since late April.  The rain has always been from my own backyard, except when I'm away (like last week), because I still use the trusty manual raingauge (beetles/spiders loved to play in the automatic gauge, so I conceded defeat and gave up on it for the time-being. I can only imagine come November, the amount of Christmas Beetles it would collect, lol  ). Max wind is from Coffs Harbour. 

Smoky Cape is right on the sea and a bit over 110m above sea level in a somewhat exposed location, often with a bit of a breeze all night helping to keep it's nights warmer and sitting above the inversion with colder, settled (calm to near calm) air near sea level. I'm about one kilometre inland from a north-facing bay and 4kms west of the Cape, close enough to still benefit a bit of the warmer sea to my north on most cooler winter nights (a bit confusing, will become clear once you see the pics below). Often our nighttime temps and occasionally daytime temps in wintry months has some level of correlation with Coffs instead (Coffs at near sea level and similar distance inland from nearest shoreline like myself, but doesn't have the fairly unique north-facing bay). The vicinity of the bay but also a small ridge line to my south and west stops the coldest air from affecting here (another kilometre inland from here on the other side and several frosts are guarenteed every winter). 

With Smoky and here, daytime temps are usually reasonably similar year-round, nighttime temps are usually different come the wintry months (though similar when windy, raining or under the influence of a moist airmass), Nighttime temps are similar in the summery months though.

The town sits a couple of kilometres west of the mountain behind the cape (photo from the National Parks website) (town not visible):

 

We have a fairly unique feature of the NSW coast between the VIC border and Cape Byron, with a reasonable-sized northern-facing bay. I live about a kilometre inland from the shoreline of the bay in the foreground of the pic below. Not a good-quality picture and bit dated (looks like around 2004/2005), but does show the best perspective from town for looking back in the other direction to the above photo (pic from Trip Advisor):

 

This photo probably shows the Cape's exposure/elevation better than the top pic (from some random's Flickr account):

Edited May 20, 2013 by NorthNSW

[SomeLikeItHot]

Making me homesick looking at those pics! Not that I lived at smokey cape, but the colour of the sky and water wide uncrowded sandy beaches and space. So much space.

[AderynCoch]

Weird weather in the Top End lately. The Dry arrived on schedule in Kununurra in April but then about a week ago the cloud built up, the humidity increased and there was a bit of rain (the first for a month and a half). Saturday felt as humid as it was in March, and when I was in Darwin the next day it felt just as sultry as it did when I was there in February!

 

I'm back in Britain now though.

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
May 16th - 14.0ºC / 23.1ºC - NE 26km/h @ 4:32pm - Nil
May 17th - 10.9ºC / 22.1ºC - WSW 39km/h @ 8:49pm - Nil
May 18th - 9.9ºC / 20.3ºC - WSW 37km/h @ 9:06am - Nil
May 19th - 9.0ºC / 19.4ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 9:35am - Nil
May 20th - 9.0ºC / 19.3ºC - SSE 22km/h @ 1:12pm - Nil
May 21st - 9.4ºC / 23.9ºC - NNW 20km/h @ 4:06pm - Nil
May 22nd - 14.6ºC / 17.0ºC - W 22km/h @ 1:57pm - 8.0mm

 

Past week:
For the most part, it was a fine week. Cooler, dry air started intruding into the region from the 17th leading to cool nights and cool to mild

days. A trough started moving through the state on the 22nd, bringing some light rain. The cloudcover and light rain also brought a cold

day on the 22nd, though very high humidity and little wind (wind gusts stayed below 15km/h for most of the day) didn't make it feel overly cold.

 

This week (May 23rd to May 29th):
A low is expected to form off the central coast of New South Wales during today as the trough moves offshore. Rain should develop late tonight here. It should persist through tomorrow, potentially moderate to heavy at times (I feel like by merely mentioning the chance of heavy rain that I could jinx it ). The rain should ease by around Saturday morning to a lingering shower or two as the low moves further out to sea.

A high over Victoria may then direct the odd isolated shower along the coastal fringe, with just the chance of a shower on Sunday and Monday. There are indications that as the high moves into the Tasman Sea during Tuesday that moist onshore winds directed from the high onto the coast may combine with a weak trough to bring a shower or two on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 20 / 21 / 21 / 20 / 19

 

Forecast rainfall for tomorrow on BOM (the product uses nine different computer models to produce an outcome on these maps). Small black dot marks my location on the coast between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie:

 

[NorthNSW]

Severe Weather Warning issued this afternoon for this district later tonight and tomorrow:

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and heavy rain
for people in the Mid North Coast forecast district

Issued at 2:31 pm EST on Thursday 23 May 2013.

RAIN AND WIND INCREASING MID NORTH COAST TONIGHT.

Weather Situation

A low pressure centre off the Mid North Coast is deepening. Rain and wind will increase along the Mid North Coast overnight and during Friday, with damaging wind gusts possible from intense periods of rain along the coastal fringe.

Damaging wind gusts of up to 100 km/h and heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for parts of the Mid North Coast overnight and during Friday.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

• [*]Move vehicles under cover or away from trees. [*]Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony. [*]Keep clear of fallen power lines. [*]Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water. [*]Keep clear of creeks and storm drains. [*]If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
  

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Thursday.

 

Something to spice up an otherwise boring month weather-wise.

[NorthNSW]

Latest update to the Severe Weather Warning has BOM expecting wind gusts potentially up to 125km/h in this district:

"Destructive wind gusts of up to 125 km/h and heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for parts of the Mid North Coast forecast district overnight and during Friday."

Tomorrow's forecast for this district:

"Cloudy. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms, contracting to the coast in the late afternoon. Heavy falls likely. Winds south to southeasterly 35 to 65 km/h, with gusts above 100 km/h possible along the coastal fringe. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 18."

 

I suspect they might be thinking there could be waterspout activity along the coastal fringe.

[NorthNSW]

The East Coast Low brought very heavy rain and localised flash flooding to the region. 128.8mm here in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, and 143.2mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning. The two-day total was 272mm, with 270.6mm of that falling in the 30 hours between 5pm Thursday and 11pm yesterday (I checked the gauge on Thursday at sunset at 5pm and there was 1.4mm, the rain set in shortly after and persisted quite consistently through to 11pm yesterday when it stopped). The rain was heavier than predicted. There were some intense downpours and even embedded storm activity. The highest 24 hour total during the event was at one of the Bureau's gauges at Fishermans Reach around 4kms to my WNW where 204.8mm fell (205mm in the graphic below is a rounded-off figure). Over the two days, that site recorded 364.6mm, the highest in the region. Only one river flooded (the Orara), as most of the heavy rain was restricted to within 20-30kms or so of the coast.

There was also very strong winds at times, though not as strong as the gusts up to 125km/h predicted (I think BOM were covering the possibility of a couple of waterspouts coming ashore), but enough to bring down a couple of trees and cut power in several places across the region.

Some pictures in the local paper of the wet weather from mainly around Kempsey (which received about 60% of what I got here): http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/1524735/its-been-raining/?cs=1778

 

Picture below shows 24 hour totals to 9am yesterday morning and 24 hour totals to 9am this morning (the highest 24 hour total for that day shown in box, with the "dot" it corresponds to a few millimetres to the left of the top left hand corner of the box). Also a rainfall map of NSW from this week, showing an area of 200-300mm rainfall centred over this part of the coast:

 

Only a week shy of being five whole months into the year, and already we've had 1326.4mm so far this year. This is just a bit over 160mm less than our average yearly rainfall! BOM are giving us a 65-70% chance of a wetter than normal winter this year.

Edited May 25, 2013 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
May 23rd - 10.2ºC / 18.8ºC - WSW 50km/h @ 10:33pm - 128.8mm
May 24th - 14.3ºC / 16.9ºC - SW 70km/h @ 6:22am - 143.2mm
May 25th - 13.9ºC / 20.4ºC - SW 61km/h @ 4:54am - Nil
May 26th - 13.5ºC / 22.1ºC - SW 35km/h @ 10:06am - Nil
May 27th - 11.0ºC / 22.5ºC - S 56km/h @ 7:08pm - 9.4mm
May 28th - 14.2ºC / 22.2ºC - SW 31km/h @ 3:19am - 0.8mm
May 29th - 13.1ºC / 23.0ºC - ENE 28km/h @ 2:37pm - 0.6mm

 

Past week:
Very heavy rain from an East Coast Low fell from the evening of the 23rd, and persisted through the 24th, clearing very late in the night. Persistent rain and cloudcover brought a cold day on the 24th. Fine weather returned for the 25th and 26th. An onshore airstream directed from a high over the Tasman, in combination with a rather weak trough sitting near the coast brought a few showers from the early morning of the 28th with a couple of light showers in the days after.

Midday webcam images from past week, and heavy rain moving through on morning of 24th (image size approx 650kb):

 

 

This week (May 30th to Jun 5th):
The chance of a shower this evening or tomorrow morning, otherwise fine. A rainband bringing light rain is forecast to move through on Sunday as a trough moves through the state. A light shower or two is possible on Monday. Mostly fine weather is expected to return at this stage for Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of high pressure nears, perhaps the slight chance of a lingering light shower though.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 22 / 21 / 19 / 19 / 20 / 21

[NorthNSW]

Winter rainfall outlook for SE Australia - For my location, a 65-70% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for winter.

 

Winter temperature outlook for SE Australia - For my location, a 45-50% chance of exceeding the median max temp for winter. And a 65-70% chance of exceeding the median min temp for winter.

 

Climatitc Influences helping to determine this outlook by the Bureau:

The tropical Pacific has remained ENSO-neutral since mid-2012. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to sit on the cool side of neutral during winter 2013.

Four of five international models surveyed by the Bureau favour the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event during winter-spring 2013. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall, and thus cloud amount, over southern Australia. Increased cloudiness reduces sunshine hours, and hence daytime temperatures, over inland Australia.
Warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures currently surround much of the continent. Warmer ocean temperatures will tend to influence air temperatures in those areas closer to the coast. Warmer ocean temperatures can provide more moisture to the atmosphere, which in favourable weather conditions (e.g., interactions with fronts or north-west cloudbands) may result in increased rainfall.

(Indian Ocean Dipole: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml)

 

Can be a funny time of year rainfall-wise here, with rainfall tending to be most variable during winter. Some winters can be dominated by extended dry spells, courtesy of stubborn high pressure systems sitting over this latitude. While others, can be wet and bring very heavy rainfall and major flooding (usually from East Coast Lows). Our two worst floods on record actually occurred in July and August. The driest winter on record here is 7.1mm, but the wettest winter on record is 1519.7mm. The winter average is 300.1mm (Avg for: June 141.6mm, July 78.8mm, August 79.7mm).

Edited May 31, 2013 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

Autumn in Australia was +0.95C above the 1961-90 average in terms of mean temperature.

Rainfall, close to the long-term average, +2%.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml

 

 

The last 4 seasons:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/archive/

 

 

Winter 2012:  Mean -0.2C Rainfall -17%

Spring 2012:  Mean +1.05C Rainfall -29%

Summer 2012/13:  Mean +1.1C Rainfall:  -16%

Autumn 2013: Mean +0.95C Rainfall: +2%

 

 

Edited June 5, 2013 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
May 30th - 12.8ºC / 20.5ºC - NW 22km/h @ 2:01am - Nil
May 31st - 14.0ºC / 22.9ºC - NE 33km/h @ 3:28pm - Nil
Jun 1st - 14.4ºC / 21.7ºC - NNW 31km/h @ 10:51am - Nil
Jun 2nd - 17.0ºC / 20.1ºC - SW 59km/h @ 11:38pm - 1.0mm
Jun 3rd - 13.5ºC / 19.1ºC - SSW 67km/h @ 12:16am - Nil
Jun 4th - 12.4ºC / 21.5ºC - SSW 41km/h @ 11:25am - Nil
Jun 5th - 11.9ºC / 21.6ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 12:48am - Nil

 

Past week:
Predominately fine weather, with cloud at times. Mild days and mild to warm nights (for this time of year). The 17ºC minimum on the 2nd was unseasonably warm, thanks to a mild airmass ahead of the trough, cloudcover, and a constant N'ly breeze through the night. Some light rain on the 2nd from a passing trough.

Midday cam images from the past week (approx 600kb):

 

 

This week (Jun 6th to Jun 12th):
It was fine today with increasing cloud. A weak cold front will brush the region, a little bit of light rain may fall, but it isn't expected to bring any recordable rain. A high will move into the Tasman Sea during Saturday, chance of a drizzly shower on Saturday and the slight chance on Sunday in a weak onshore airstream. On Sunday, a trough is expected to develop over the eastern interior. In all likelihood, it should be mostly fine on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly fine too, maybe the possibility of a stray afternoon/evening shower. Though on Wednesday, there are indications that the trough could deepen and move eastwards closer to eastern NSW, with light rain possibly developing late on Wednesday.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 22 / 20 / 19 / 19 / 21 / 20

 

A couple of photos from a day trip about the Nambucca region on June 4th (the neighbouring valley to the north of here):

View from Yarrahapinni looking over coastal parts of the Macleay Valley and towards South West Rocks:

 

In amongst the subtropical rainforest:

 

Forestry trail:

 

Looking south from Nambucca Heads. South West Rocks is on the left near those two reasonable sized "humps", almost looking like an island:

 

Looking westward (inland) from Nambucca Heads:

 

Looking north from Nambucca Heads toward the regional city of Coffs Harbour:

 

Our beaches have copped a fair hammering over the past 4 years from East Coast Lows, with some beaches like the one at Scotts Head looking very lean at high tide (water lapping the foredune!). My dad is a local and has seen the beaches in a similar state back in the 70s following a number of wet years. They recovered over the years following before this recent wet period began at the start of 2009:

 

Scotts Head:

 

Fancy a dip? Sea temps are around a balmy 22ºC at the moment:

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
Jun 6th - 14.5ºC / 23.8ºC - NNW 35km/h @ 10:31am - Nil
Jun 7th - 16.9ºC / 23.0ºC - NW 20km/h @ 9:07am - Nil
Jun 8th - 14.7ºC / 21.0ºC - SW 35km/h @ 10:00am - 0.2mm
Jun 9th - 13.1ºC / 21.5ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 1:30am - Nil
Jun 10th - 14.9ºC / 21.4ºC - NNW 28km/h @ 12:59pm - 2.6mm
Jun 11th - 13.6ºC / 22.7ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 10:01am - Nil
Jun 12th - 14.5ºC / 23.1ºC - NNE 41km/h @ 3:38pm - 16.8mm

 

Past week:
A drizzly shower on the 8th during a weak onshore flow. A little light rain on the 10th from a passing upper trough. A trough moving through the area on the 12th brought some rain and a brief thunderstorm in the evening. Warmer than normal nights and days too for this time of year. A possible tornado is suspected to have moved through near Warwick in far southeastern QLD, about 60kms north of the NSW/QLD Border, during the storm activity that occurred across northern NSW and southern QLD yesterday:

Much like here, it is very unusual for winter thunderstorms to be severe in that area, especially in June or July. Winter thunderstorms, which are very infrequent up here (most winters will see only 1 to 2 storms, occasionally 3), usually are quite benign (e.g. couple of flashes, shower of steady to moderate rain).

 

This week (Jun 13th to Jun 19th):
Fine weather developed early this morning as the trough moved offshore. Aside from today, cooler and more seasonable temps expected this week, with cool to mild days and cool to possibly cold nights. The fine weather should persist pretty much all week.

An East Coast Low off the far southern NSW / far eastern Victorian coast (well south of here) will direct a cooler, drier SW'ly flow into this region from tomorrow. The low will move further out into the Tasman Sea over the weekend but continue to direct that general SW'ly flow over this area in the following days. On Wednesday, there is the chance of a late drizzly shower as a high begins to move east near Tasmania, possibly turning winds onshore later in the day.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 20 / 20 / 19 / 19 / 18 / 17

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
Jun 13th - 12.8ºC / 22.6ºC - WNW 41km/h @ 8:25pm - Nil
Jun 14th - 12.0ºC / 20.6ºC - E 28km/h @ 1:43pm - Nil
Jun 15th - 10.5ºC / 20.5ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 1:38pm - Nil
Jun 16th - 9.2ºC / 19.0ºC - SSW 22km/h @ 12:08pm - Nil
Jun 17th - 8.0ºC / 18.8ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 11:16am - Nil
Jun 18th - 9.0ºC / 18.4ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 10:34am - Nil
Jun 19th - 7.4ºC / 18.4ºC - SSW 50km/h @ 2:14pm - Nil

 

Past week:
It was fine all week, with winter arriving during the week. Maximums and minimums started to fall from the 15th as the cool, dry SW'ly general flow took hold. After a cold morning on the 19th, winds quickly increased during the day as the pressure gradient increased between the high south of Tasmania and a strengthening low near New Zealand.

Midday cam images from week [approx 650kb]:

 

This week (Jun 20th to Jun 26th):
Fine though fairly overcast today. A little light rain is possible tomorrow as an upper trough moves through.
A hard week to forecast Saturday and beyond, with limited model consensus. It depends where the trough/low forms, with the likelihood of dry weather for remainder of the week from Saturday if it forms off the southern coast of NSW. But if it forms off the central coast of NSW, some showers may develop here around Monday (the Bureau favouring this with EC/ACCESS having the trough/low more off the central coast, but I'm a bit sceptical, and think it will be closer to GFS with it forming off the southern coast). One of those 'wait and see' situations. Regardless of the outcome, it should be a cool week overall.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 17 / 18 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 19

Shortest day of the year tomorrow. Sunrise at 6:45am and sunset at 4:53pm (Day length of 10 hours and 7 minutes).
Still a short period of UV Alert tomorrow though:

 

[Styx]

Quite a pronounced cold/frosty spell in Tasmania - one of the most prolonged in terms of extreme overnight lows in inland Tasmania for some 20 years...close to and below -10C in the Great Lake district ( inland Tasmania ) for 3 nights in a row with another 2 likely. This morning, -11.2C..1.8C short of Tasmania's lowest ever recorded temperature ( in the same district ).

 

Hobart on the south east coast is tempered by the sea, but 2 nights in a row within decimel points of zero ( 5 below average ), and the first sub 10 maximum on Friday followed by another on Saturday ( 3 below ).  Beautiful crisp sunny days, deep blue sky.

 

Great Lake district, central Tasmania, -11.2 this morning

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
Jun 20th - 12.1ºC / 17.0ºC - SW 39km/h @ 10:02am - Nil
Jun 21st - 11.4ºC / 18.5ºC - SE 20km/h @ 8:20pm - Nil
Jun 22nd - 9.2ºC / 18.3ºC - SW 39km/h @ 10:46am - Nil
Jun 23rd - 9.9ºC / 19.0ºC - SW 31km/h @ 10:01am - Nil
Jun 24th - 10.1ºC / 19.7ºC - SW 28km/h @ 10:06am - 1.0mm
Jun 25th - 6.8ºC / 17.8ºC - SW 28km/h @ 7:43pm - Nil
Jun 26th - 9.0ºC / 20.7ºC - SW 69km/h @ 6:10pm - 17.0mm

 

Past week:
A low developed off the NSW coast and stayed around the Sydney Coast for a couple of days, bringing heavy rain to the south of the low but mostly dry to dry conditions in this area to the north of the low. The rain led to Warragamba Dam (Sydney's main dam) to overflow once again this year.
A cold pool of air moved over the region to the north of the low during the 24th and 25th. A thunderstorm brought hail up to just over 1.5cm in diameter on the afternoon of the 24th. The storm was triggered by a cold pool of air moving into the region, whilst surface temperatures were close to 20ºC. Storms also formed offshore on the night of the 25th in the lingering cold air, but the coast remained dry despite some activity close to the coast.

Light snow fell on along the higher parts of the NSW ranges outside of the Snowy Mountains alpine area during the overnight going into the 25th, including on the northern ranges of NSW to the west of here above about 1200 metres (including at Guyra: http://www.guyraargus.com.au/story/1599292/chilly-tuesday-as-first-snow-falls/?cs=605), with some snow flurries below that height down to around 1000m in a few places (snow was heavier and more consistent down south in the Snowy Mountains).
The low moved eastward and the associated trough northward on the 26th, allowing for showers to develop here. These showers moved into this area during the afternoon, bringing some strong wind at times.

Midday cam images from the week, and a storm off the coast on the 25th [image approx 700kb]:

 

Thunderstorm on the 24th that brought small hail:

 

This week (Jun 27th to Jul 3rd):

Showers eased early this morning as the trough weakened. A few showers should fall tomorrow. An upper trough over the weekend is expected to deepen the surface trough off the coast, which should bring an increase in showers helped by a moist E to SE'ly flow. There are reasonable indications that a low will form within the surface trough offshore on Monday, and most likely off the far southern Queensland coast. If this low forms, showers would increase to rain (possibly moderate to heavy) on Monday and Tuesday, though most likely easing on Wednesday as the system moves away (if and where it forms will have a strong bearing on how much rain we receive).

Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 19 / 17 / 18 / 20 / 21

 

~~~~~

 

A new forecasting product has been introduced on the Bureau's website called 'Meteye': http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

Forecasts are available for any location in Australia based on grids of 3x3km or 6x6km (varies state to state), except for Queensland and the Northern Territory where the forecast product hasn't been introduced yet.

It also has a display of current weather conditions countrywide, where various options can be selected (default option is current temp and radar).

Edited June 27, 2013 by NorthNSW

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

 

Past week:A low developed off the NSW coast and stayed around the Sydney Coast for a couple of days, bringing heavy rain to the south of the low but mostly dry to dry conditions in this area to the north of the low. The rain led to Warragamba Dam (Sydney's main dam) to overflow once again this year. 

 

That must be about the 4th time in 2 years now?

A long way it seems from the days of 2007 with it at 32% capacity and heavy water restrictions and predictions that it would never fill again.

[Styx]

That must be about the 4th time in 2 years now?

A long way it seems from the days of 2007 with it at 32% capacity and heavy water restrictions and predictions that it would never fill again.

 

You are absolutley correct.

Billions of dollars were spent on desalinisation plants along Australia's eastern seaboard during the last El Nino event - in which climate science models at the time were forecasting that the era of natural fresh water supplies were coming to an end. Australians were endlessly told this thru political institutions - time and time again. Along comes the next cyclical rainfall event and these same dams that were due to become unreliable are overflowing ( again ) resulting in downstream flooding.

 

Desalinisation plants also have to keep converting saltwater to freshwater in order to remain functional..they cannot just be turned off.. and it is ironic that these 'drought busters' are now pumping water into Sydney's main dam and contributing to its overflow!  I think it just goes to show ( again ) how unreliable climate modelling is when it comes to rainfall prediction. Human activity is far more susceptible to extreme rainfall patterns than increasing temperature (?)...yet climate modelling on this is too fraught to really be taken seriously.

 

( NorthNSW though probably has a better understanding of how unusual the number of east coast lows has been in recent years in relation to an historical context - it is his home state after all  )

 

 

Warragamba dam level since 2002; Sydney's main water catchment.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Styx

[BornFromTheVoid]

I like to see evidence that climate models suggested an end to fresh water supplies in Australia, because that sounds like tabloid or political hyperbole to me!

Besides, the models have always called for increased extremes, haven't they?

[SomeLikeItHot]

I like to see evidence that climate models suggested an end to fresh water supplies in Australia, because that sounds like tabloid or political hyperbole to me!

Besides, the models have always called for increased extremes, haven't they?

 

 

A complex and interesting question BTV, you are correct about variability, but certainly the projections from climate models have had average rainfall for Australia to go down.

 

The third IPCC assesment report

To summarize the rainfall results, drier conditions are anticipated for most of Australia over the 21st century. However, consistent with conclusions in WGI, an increase in heavy rainfall also is projected, even in regions with small decreases in mean rainfall. This is a result of a shift in the frequency distribution of daily rainfall toward fewer light and moderate events and more heavy events. This could lead to more droughts and more floods.

 

I've always found that rainfall projection strange, If you look at what has happenned in the recorded rainfall record for Australia over the last century of warming (and increasing CO2), as a continent average rainfall has gone up.

 

 

 

 

 

 However it doesn't really make that much sense to talk about a since climate of Australia, as the climatic difference between say Darwin and Tasmania is pretty extreme and it turns out that a lot of the increase is due to Northern Australia. However Southern Australia still has an increase overall.

The regions that do look to have declining rainfall are SW Australia (ie Sth corner of WA one of the main wheat growing and main agricultural area of WA) and Tasmania.

 

 

The CSIRO (government Science body) in 2007 predicted

 

http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.aspx#a2

 

"... decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern Australia - rainfall is likely to decrease in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and along the west coast during autumn. For 2030, there will be little annual rainfall change in the far north."

 

One of the concerns however is that evaporation rates will be higher and indeed may be the bigger impact on freshwater. eg Tim flannery who later became the Chief Commissioner of the Australian_Climate_Commission.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm

 

 

"We're already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we're getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that's translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That's because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that's a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we're going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation."

 

To me it seems that a few people were too eager to claim the series of El Nino events in the early 90s to 2000s as evidence of climate change rather than variability, making essentially the same mistake as those claiming climate change ended in 1998 or 2005 or whenever. A 10-15 year change in pattern is probably no a good indicator of the long term trend.

 

Edit all the images come from the BOM. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Climate-change-tracker&tracker=time-series&tQ[graph]=rranom&tQ[area]=tas&tQ[season]=0112&tQ[ave_yr]=T

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

 

A complex and interesting question BTV, you are correct about variability, but certainly the projections from climate models have had average rainfall for Australia to go down.

 

The third IPCC assesment report

To summarize the rainfall results, drier conditions are anticipated for most of Australia over the 21st century. However, consistent with conclusions in WGI, an increase in heavy rainfall also is projected, even in regions with small decreases in mean rainfall. This is a result of a shift in the frequency distribution of daily rainfall toward fewer light and moderate events and more heavy events. This could lead to more droughts and more floods.

 

I've always found that rainfall projection strange, If you look at what has happenned in the recorded rainfall record for Australia over the last century of warming (and increasing CO2), as a continent average rainfall has gone up.

 

 

 

 

 

 However it doesn't really make that much sense to talk about a since climate of Australia, as the climatic difference between say Darwin and Tasmania is pretty extreme and it turns out that a lot of the increase is due to Northern Australia. However Southern Australia still has an increase overall.

The regions that do look to have declining rainfall are SW Australia (ie Sth corner of WA one of the main wheat growing and main agricultural area of WA) and Tasmania.

 

 

The CSIRO (government Science body) in 2007 predicted

 

http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.aspx#a2

 

"... decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern Australia - rainfall is likely to decrease in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and along the west coast during autumn. For 2030, there will be little annual rainfall change in the far north."

 

One of the concerns however is that evaporation rates will be higher and indeed may be the bigger impact on freshwater. eg Tim flannery who later became the Chief Commissioner of the Australian_Climate_Commission.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm

 

 

"We're already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we're getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that's translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That's because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that's a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we're going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation."

 

To me it seems that a few people were too eager to claim the series of El Nino events in the early 90s to 2000s as evidence of climate change rather than variability, making essentially the same mistake as those claiming climate change ended in 1998 or 2005 or whenever. A 10-15 year change in pattern is probably no a good indicator of the long term trend.

 

Edit all the images come from the BOM. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Climate-change-tracker&tracker=time-series&tQ[graph]=rranom&tQ[area]=tas&tQ[season]=0112&tQ[ave_yr]=T

 

 

 

 

great post, but I'm afraid none of the images are working for me? But it does seem reasonable enough, increased droughts and heavy rainfall events, with a long term trend for reduced rainfall overall. Certainly no sign of an end to fresh water supplies indicated on any of those climate forecasts you mentioned.

It sounds like a similar type of forecast for the southern UK summers, which many people mistakenly take as meaning warm and dry '76 style summers for the next few years.

 

I think whatever climate change does, we will still see a large degree of short term variability in regions that are heavily dominate by the swings in ENSO.

 

Rather than the influence of ENSO on climate causing some premature forecasts, it seems the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the one that caught people out. it's currently in its -ve phase, which encourage the transport of surface heat into the deep ocean (-ve ENSO and PDO) slowing the rate of surface warming, but may switch to it's positive phase again in a few years, bringing a another round of rapid surface warming and El Ninos.

[Styx]

I like to see evidence that climate models suggested an end to fresh water supplies in Australia, because that sounds like tabloid or political hyperbole to me!

Besides, the models have always called for increased extremes, haven't they?

 

Some quotes from Australia's climate commissioner at the time ( Flannery ) in regards to water supply predictions for Australia's most populous cities ( below ). This is where my comment came from, but perhaps I could have phrased it better.

 

Flannery quotes:

"Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months"

"The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by 2009"

"I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century's first ghost metropolis"

 

(Divergence ): "In 5 years there will be no Arctic ice cap" ( 2008 )

Let's see about that one, we don't have long to wait.

 

As climate commisioner, he was obviously basing his remarks upon climate modelling predictions, it was what he was paid to do afterall, and using the term 'extreme' dry mentioned in the IPCC report rather selectively IMO, without giving recourse to its true stated position of "extreme rainfall events" ? There is an alarming difference.  The latter is rather ambiguous, and possibly  'normal' when it comes to Australia's climate. Perhaps the overriding issue is water security not meeting population demand...circumstances that the cities have not had to deal with in the past?

 

 

Flannery was not alone in his predictions, and the IPCC of course is not the only science body that releases climate prognostications. Perhaps the problem here is appropriate communication, and the problem of hyperbole from all sides, not just the usual suspects,  because if you don't have a degree of level headedness and accuracy in what you say, it does diminish this entire field of science.

 

I could spend an afternoon finding quotes from other science outlets and spokespersons at the time if I had the time and inclination to do so, but I am not really interested in a nit pick debate about what was said  several years ago and their intended meanings. I thought it would be polite however to answer your question,  I understand the angle you are coming from in respect to an appreciation of science and expertise, and I do enjoy reading your posts especially in the climate change threads.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Styx

[SomeLikeItHot]

great post, but I'm afraid none of the images are working for me? But it does seem reasonable enough, increased droughts and heavy rainfall events, with a long term trend for reduced rainfall overall. Certainly no sign of an end to fresh water supplies indicated on any of those climate forecasts you mentioned.

It sounds like a similar type of forecast for the southern UK summers, which many people mistakenly take as meaning warm and dry '76 style summers for the next few years.

 

I think whatever climate change does, we will still see a large degree of short term variability in regions that are heavily dominate by the swings in ENSO.

 

Rather than the influence of ENSO on climate causing some premature forecasts, it seems the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the one that caught people out. it's currently in its -ve phase, which encourage the transport of surface heat into the deep ocean (-ve ENSO and PDO) slowing the rate of surface warming, but may switch to it's positive phase again in a few years, bringing a another round of rapid surface warming and El Ninos.

I'll try to fix it, I posted this as quickly as I could from work yesterday and it looked fine from there but not when I look now from home.

 

Yes that's right about the PDO not something I was aware of my self until relatively recently, whereas the ENSO I learn about in school in the 80s.