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TC Marcus has been upgraded to a Category 2 system this morning and is expected to cross Darwin on Saturday afternoon ( local time ) with forecast wind gusts to 130km/80mph - with possibly as much as 150mm of rain in the next 24 hours. Marcus is the fourth cyclone to cross the Australian coast this cyclone season ( about average ),  another three have stayed out at sea. There may be another one on the way for the Top End next week.  

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Darwin harbour is down to 982.1 hPa and getting wind gusts of 130 kph, my place is 993.9 hPa with wind only gusting to 90 kph. Lot of trees down on powerlines and roads. Not much rain so far but should increase as the system passes.

The airport is closed and flights cancelled. Lot of shipping has left the port and the Queen Mary 2 cruise ship which was due to berth in Darwin has been diverted.

Power supply is failing like falling dominoes, mine has finally gone down and now I'm on my own generator supply. The power authority can't do anything until the cyclone passes.


Tropical Cyclone Marcus

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Posted (edited)

Worst bushfire day of the season today with "up to 100 homes" destroyed in southern New South Wales, with emergency warnings still in place this evening. Another dozen homes were destroyed or damaged in south-west Victoria last night. Very windy in south-east Australia generally, with a dust storm in Canberra and very high temperatures preceding a dry squally and cooler change from the south.

 


 

Edited by Styx

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Posted (edited)

If you don't mind we'll just nick a bit of that UK snow you've just had.. lots of thanks! Nothing unusual for March but it's nice to see a snowline above the city ( to about 1000m ) as a reminder of the change of seasons. A mountain summit minimum of -1.4c and city minimum of 8.6c ( 3 below average ). At 9am it is 11c.. sweater weather...heading for 16c.

5ab0333117c6a_HobartsnowMarch20.thumb.png.78eca1e11c436235c00f72d4e35b0a13.png

 

Edited by Styx

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Severe TC Marcus is now cat 5 with sustained winds of 205 kph and gusting to 285 kph. Further intensification is expected before the system starts to curve to the south and run into lower sea surface temperatures and higher vertical wind shear. There is very high rainfall around the system, it will be interesting to see if this will carry through to the south west of WA. It appears that ex-Marcus may cross the coast in the vicinity of Perth.

Marcus180321.thumb.jpg.f4ad734769d9546c85d1fd1647d1e8f0.jpg

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is Cat 5 with central pressure 914 hPa, sustained winds at 230 kph gusting to 325 kph. Glad we were near the starting blocks for this one rather than near the finish. Marcus is curving around to the south and will soon begin to weaken.

Another tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea and is expected to develop into a cyclone tomorrow. This system is expected to move south east into the Gulf of Carpentaria and strengthen to Cat 3 by Sunday.

I94P180322.thumb.jpg.8190ce1ec7b0010354aafb0916fbdc32.jpg

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has weakened to cat. 3, central pressure 965 hPa, sustained winds 140 kph, gusting to 195 kph. Conditions are becoming less favourable and transition to a low may occur Saturday or Sunday. Ex TC Marcus may just clip the south west tip of Western Australia as it's swept eastwards.

The tropical low in the Arafura Sea developed faster than anticipated and is now Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, cat. 3. Central pressure 963 hPa, sustained winds 150 kph, gusting to 205 kph. Further intensification is likely, to cat. 4 by about mid tomorrow (Saturday). Nora is expected to continue down the west coast of Cape York as a cat. 4 but experiencing some increase in vertical wind shear, interaction with land and possibility of some dry air in the area penetrating the system.

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The official Tropical cyclone season is drawing to a close with numbers of cyclones close to average with a possibility that the average might be exceeded before the end.

Extract from the Weekly Tropical Climate Note of 27 March 2018:

Ten tropical cyclones in Australian region so far this season

After a busy week, Australia has now observed ten cyclones during the 2017-18 tropical cyclone season, to date. This is just short of the long-term average number of eleven tropical cyclones per season across the Australian region. The tropical cyclone season runs until 30 April, so there remains a reasonable likelihood of exceeding the average number—something that has not been achieved since 2005-06.

Western Australia has seen the majority of tropical cyclones, with the first seven systems of the season affecting that region.

The last one, TC Nora, whilst not reaching the east coast caused heavy rain in the area. Port Douglas had 593mm rain in a 24 hour period, several other places in the area had over 300mm in the same period.

 

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Amazingly warm across Australia as we begin the middle month of autumn. By the middle of the month, a large proportion of the continent will be sitting somewhere between 3-5c above average. That will easily be enough to eclipse the April 2006 heat record for Australia if cooling isn't significant during the second half of the month. Here is a quote from meteorologist Blair Trewin writing about Bathurst (  125 miles NW from Sydney ):

"Bathurst Ag (already with 4 30+ days, with another 7 forecast) has a good chance of having more 30+ days this April than it's had in the last 108 Aprils put together (8)"

 

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Posted (edited)

A lot of April heat records today across a wide area of southern Australia. Sydney's maximum of 35.4c today exceeded the old April record by 1.2c. Eight locations in the Sydney Basin were up to one degree warmer.  Up to the 9th Syndey is +5.5c above average with little change to that anomaly in the week to come.

Sydney - Record April Maximum ( records since 1859 )....average 23

1......35.4.....2018

2......34.2.....2016

3......33.9.....1986

4......33.5.....1980

5......33.1.....2006

5acb06bfe78f0_April9.thumb.png.a0c8ea798b74415f2578b43b86bf1cdd.png5acb06cf20eef_AprilSouthAustralia.thumb.png.405fe745eadcbdfeea1b75fa9a759843.png

The April state record for South Australia was tied today. Tomorrow the state records for Victoria and New South Wales could potentially go. 

EDIT: A late maximum of 42.2c at Nullarbor, South Australia ...April state record.

Edited by Styx
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Big April heat records in north-west Victoria today. The town of Mildura ( records since 1890 ) broke the 1986 Victoria state record ( and its own ) by 1.5c. Two other towns exceeded the old state record and one other tied.

New South Wales had a maximum of 39.0c which is the fourth highest temperature ever recorded in that state for April. Western NSW may break the April state record of 40.0c tomorrow.

Locations in south-east South Australia also had records today, some by margins of near 2c.

5acc56e212e2e_April10.thumb.png.004a435acc3c2b1a3833d4d68a2b65b8.png5acc56e817f86_AprilVictoria.thumb.png.534f2e422b8a97f14edbe7a549780655.png

     

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Posted (edited)

Here is my final daily report on Australia's mid-autumn heatwave - highly likely I think to be classed as the most significant April heatwave for Australia in terms of breadth, peak intensity and duration. The heat will be levelling off from tomorrow before a return to "average" ( a bit of a slippery term to use nowadays ) by the weekend. I will be very surprised if the April average maximum temperature for the country doesn't turn out to be an easy record with the way the anomalies are at the moment. Only a good run of cooler nights everywhere will keep the mean temperature record intact too.

New South Wales became the third state since Monday to record its highest maximum temperature for April. The NSW record stood for almost 100 years. The old 40.0c record was broken at Menindee ( records since 1914 ) and Pooncarie. At least 4 other locations were 39.0c+.

5acdb303578df_AprilNSW.thumb.png.b2a8f4a07c0b71241c9b1e01be11fffc.png

 

Victoria today equalled yesterday's record April maximum with 39.3c. At least 7 other towns in northern Victoria were 38.0c+ so the entire Top 10 temperatures recorded in Victoria in April is from this event alone. 

5acdb348a95c1_April11.thumb.png.0a8d86516fb637c3db47bc0616e69570.png

  

Edited by Styx
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...also today

Adelaide ( records since 1887 )   recorded 36.3c today and on Monday - it's fourth and fifth hottest April days. Up to the 11th, Adelaide is +6.8c above average, which is 22c for April. 

1..... 36.9.....2005...9th

2......36.9.....2005...2nd

3.....36.8......2014

4.....36.3......2018...11th

5.....36.3......2018...9th

Canberra  ( records since 1939 ) recorded 31.8c today it's third hottest April day. Up to the 11th, Canberra is +8.9c above average, which is 20c for April.

1.....32.6.....1968...12th

2.....32.6.....1986...4th

3.....31.8.....2018...11th

4.....31.5......1986...3rd

5.....31.1.....2016...6th

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Just in. Second warmest April on record for Australia ( mean anomaly +2.38c ) ... with a record April maximum anomaly ( +3.17c ). 

5ae7e46e8aa5a_AprilAustraliaMeanAnomaly.thumb.gif.b3064d0cb0a136b9922c62694110aa47.gif5ae7e4a87d44e_AprilAustraliaMeanGraph.thumb.png.1b21e5904e3067af45c1bc79daf4de2b.png

 

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That heat looks set to make way for cooler conditions next week (BOM Access model) as a sizeable southeasterly front, driven by a major east coast/cut-off low, makes its way across Victoria and NSW as far as Queensland. There should be some storm activity with that I would imagine! 

 

Curiously there is also apprently a sudden stratospheric warming underway over the Antarctic.  I haven’t experienced one as yet down here so not really sure what it might bring for Aus/NZ. Potentially more cold interludes and more significantly cold to go with that?

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Possibly significant snow for the Australian Alps at the end of the week, a rare early start to the ski season? Possibly significant rain in tasmania's east which has been very dry this year. All dependant where the deepening low tracks. Very windy. Quite cold for a time, but nothing special. 

 

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6 hours ago, Styx said:

 

Possibly significant snow for the Australian Alps at the end of the week, a rare early start to the ski season? Possibly significant rain in tasmania's east which has been very dry this year. All dependant where the deepening low tracks. Very windy. Quite cold for a time, but nothing special. 

 

I’ll bow to your experience but it looks a pretty decent event to me, particularly for NSW and Tasmania.  Then we’ll see whether it does the usual and ambles across the ditch to cause trouble here!

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Oh no, don't bow down to my experience that's only useful when talking about statistics, trends and historical events. Am in no way a weather expert when it comes to complex, unfolding events like this! Well done on your very early predictions! The BoM at this stage might be leaning conservative when it comes to temperatures and snow levels. We shall see what unfolds. Yes hold on in NZ as this thing explodes over the Tasman on the weekend.

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Posted (edited)

Huge Hobart flood overnight with cars washed down the main streets, as the rivulet which runs through the city collecting water from streams which run down the mountain overflows. In a truly epic record event, 129mm fell over the space of a few hours in a ferocious non-stop line of storms. The total wiped away the May daily record which stood at 47mm, from 1973!  Rain record broken almost three-fold, in 120+ years of records. This morning the city has in effect been shut down as people survey flood damage to their businesses and clean up the mess and debri. A multi-million dollar damage bill and probably the worst city flood since April 1960. I am having some problems attaching some photos/video to my post, but I will try again later on.

      

 


 

 

Edited by Styx
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I had a look at the BOM page and saw that figure of 129mm yesterday, that is an immense amount of rain and I really feel for the people of Hobart.  This system is now heading away from Australia thankfully, onwards to NZ but any comments on what happens there are not for this thread.

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Posted (edited)

I don't think folk can understand,  until they witness it, what it is like seeing a weather type turn rogue and produce an event you did not believe possible?

Records are supposed to be broken by a little bit not by a doubling ( or more) of the previous record!

Our summer storm flood was the first time I witnessed strom core rainfall rates carry on for over 3 hours...... such intensity used to be a 5 or 10 min period during the height of the storm and not just on and on and on!

I really do feel for all the folk who will be facing flood damage for the first time, it is the worst!

The other side of it is that you can no longer trust your own weather knowledge and every system that looks like it could be an issue has you worried. 

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Everyone is managing very well and getting on with things. There were no casualties.  We haven't had an extreme high rainfall record since 1996 here - ( for an entire month or  wettest day ). The trend is in fact for drier weather all year round. The city has an annual average of 600mm and the big falls almost always come from east coast lows, but they have not delivered enormous rain totals here in modern times. This is surprising because of the dramatically warming sea off the coast, in large part due to the extension of the sub-tropical East Australian Current. It is really elevating temperatures for us that is for sure. Apparently, this area of sea is one the greatest warming areas in the world. Whether it is directly related to global warming or not is open to conjecture and further study around all these teleconnections. Despite the absence of extreme rainfall records when you might expect them to be happening more regularly I have had a look at the Hobart climatology statistics and it shows that there is a very heavy bias toward high rainfall totals and rates in the last 60 years compared to the first 60 years. 

I am in awe at the big record with this flash flood just enormous. On the mountain range behind the city 236mm fell over the space of a few hours which ended up funnelling into the city rivulets in one big push, eventually, they couldn't handle the quantities of water. 

326769694_MayDailyRainfallRecord.thumb.png.5d2b7c805adde231c03c852b813459d7.png

The meteorological term for what happened was training thunderstorms. Tasmania's entire east coast was wet in a good way with prevailing easterly winds wrapping around the exploding low off the coast, with multiple depression centres. The extreme rainfall was quite localised but obviously unprecedented.   

 

  

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Posted (edited)

Some of the videos of the flash flood on twitter and facebook are really amazing, a great demonstration of nature vs the city. I am not able to link anything on here from those sources for some reason, but that's the place to go for anyone who likes to see the forces of nature at work!  This will do

^ That is not a river/rivulet channel, it is one of the city's main streets

 

Edited by Styx

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The month of May saw the dry season firmly entrench itself in the tropical north. Mid month a massive dry surge brought temperatures down to below average, Darwin Airport recording 7 consecutive days with minimums below 20 (17.9 to 19.8). That's the equal fourth longest run for the month of May. The highest minimum for the month was 25.7. The lowest maximum 30.2, highest maximum 34.9. There was no rainfall recorded in Darwin, however some rain fell along the east coasts of the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Another dry surge mid week is expected to drop temperatures below average again. This "roller coaster ride" usually continues over the coming 2 months.

 

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