Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[Arron]

Tornado Watch issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1125 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS

PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA

PASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL

600 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF

RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT

LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK

INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

WITH AIR MASS NOW FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND NEARLY

UNCAPPED...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS

WILL INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON. E/W WARM

FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL BE AN AREA FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL

SHEAR/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY

SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[NL]

Tornado warning issued for SW Tennessee.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLOVERPORT...OR 8

MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE

FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE

HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

[Mesoscale]

NOAA Radio!

Memphis, TN: http://audiostream.w...Memphis.mp3.m3u

just a reminder!

AND!!!!! live coverage (censored apart from live storm coverage)

http://www.myfoxmemp...1/Live_Stream_1

Edited February 24, 2011 by Mesoscale

[Cookie]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

326 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

EASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

WESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 322 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM SEGUR TO MURFREESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL

SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PINEY... ROCKWELL... MURFREESBORO...

MALVERN... LAKE OUACHITA... LAKE HAMILTON...

HOT SPRINGS... DEGRAY LAKE... ARKADELPHIA...

SEGUR... ROCKPORT... RICHWOODS...

PERLA... OKOLONA... MOUNTAIN PINE...

MEYERS... LONSDALE... LOFTON...

[Mesoscale]

they have extended the tornado warning.

[Cookie]

Live coverage,

http://www.wmctv.com/global/category.asp?c=196691

[NL]

Another Tornado warning for western parts of Tennessee, Ive noticed the wording is different as they used to say doppler radar has indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado but now they say producing a tornado... Cant really understand how they can say that without spotters observation..

581

WFUS54 KMEG 242142

TORMEG

TNC017-023-039-077-113-242230-

/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0002.110224T2142Z-110224T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

342 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 343 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MIFFLIN...OR 10 MILES

NORTH OF HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

LEXINGTON...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST AND NATCHEZ TRACE STATE

PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BEECH LAKE AND PIN OAK LAKE.

[Cookie]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

354 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 352 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WINONA...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF

PERRYVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...

LAKE MAUMELLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... ROLAND...

PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER...

MAUMELLE... MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY...

LAKE WINONA... CHENAL VALLEY... WYE MTN...

WYE... REFORM... PARON...

PALARM... NATURAL STEPS... WILFORD PEAK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 149.

[Mesoscale]

Is that line of storms an MCS???

watch out harrisburg a tornado will touch down south of you according to my predictions! lol

[Mesoscale]

there is some AMAZING!!!! lightning going on tonight! memphis is getting a bombarded with lightning so many strikes!!

My prediction was right on the money there was a tornado in Crittenden county (To be confirmed)

if i had to guess where a tornado may occur i think north east Arkansas between Harrisburg and Cherry Valley in Poinsett county or a little bit south just north west of memphis in Crittenden county.

Edited February 25, 2011 by Mesoscale

[gpspete]

Theres a nice storm west of Dallas/Ft Worth, but im still holding on at Harrisburg, Arkansas.

GPSpete what Nexrad 3 server are you using with GrLevel3?? and ive noticed Grlevelxstuff and Stormlabstuff are down?

GRLevelxstuff blocks a lot off ip addresses it doesn,t work via my 3 usb dongle but is ok from home on my talk talk connection i think that Stormlabstuff is probably the same.

found that info out on GRLevelx owners forum you can contact the GRLevelxstuff website owner via that forum and get him to allow you ip address if needed i think he only needs the first part of it to allow it..

[Paul Sherman]

A Pretty dissappointing day as is usually the case with early season Set-Ups in the Arklatex and Mississippi Valley with a huge Line Segment and 1 or 2 embedded Supercells causing the main Spin Ups, when they went Tornadic it was also dark so you will be hard pressed to find ANY Pictures of Nados from Yesterday, seen a few damage pics on ST But the main Storms ahead of the Line did not really materialise.

Attention now shifts to Sunday with a Slight Risk atm in roughly the same areas according to the SPC, going to be another Cold Front marching eastwards by the looks of things, so another grungefest could be on the cards.

Although some of the Models have the slower scenario which would favour places much further West with the Dryline Set-Up across Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma, lets hope it is the 2nd Option as we could then get some Picturesque Storms instead of the Grungy 50mph Low Cloud Bases.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

So Lets try to keep this real for Sunday

Yesterday starting in Stuttgart would have seen me following the Line probably all the way down the Interstate to Memphis where we would have let the Line overtake us at a Hotel for Instance, so today would be used as a Travel Day back through Little Rock then past Fort Collins and ending the day at Oklahoma City tonight 20.00hrs, probably in Norman

Now having had a better look at some of the Models I just dont see where the SPC Are getting the Risk for Sunday over the Ozarks and Arklatex ?

The GFS & NAM Are showing quite a good Set-Up over Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma virtually on the I-35 Corridoor. So at the moment would hang tight in OK City with a view to looking at Models tonight and Saturday Morning to see if the Shift Eastwards starts to occur.

At the Moment GFS Has a pretty decent Dryline Gradient running just West of Wichita and OK City (North to South) Temps in the 77f Range, decent Cape and a Minimal Cap, Very Good Jet Stream at 160kt and Southerly Surface Winds, would ideally want these to back a little bit more. Low Pressure looks to be moving across the Kansas/Oklahoma Border so maybe a Low / Dryline Intersection to get things going.

WRF/NAM also shows pretty much all of the above.

So will we see the SPC Change their charts over the next few days/runs - Or keep it to an Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Dixie Alley Set-up again.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html - SPC Chart for Sunday

Paul S

[Gorky]

The Sunday event day 3 warning area is centred over MO/AR for a couple of reasons. The warm sector with this storm is pretty big and whilst instability in the warm sector is currently predicted to be low (750-1000 cape max) Excellent shear and weak capping make supercells forming in the warm sector quite likely. Given the less than impressive instability, I'm not 100% sold on this yet of course, but close to day1 this will hopefully be resolved better by the models. At 3 days out, the Western extent of the storms are still disputed by the models so rather than put a risk area too far west and then perhaps have to retract it, they are just limiting it to the areas which all models agree will see some severe in this time frame. Regardless of the position of the low, we can all agree a mighty squall line will be passing through AR/MO at some point that night.

I personally expect I35 to be the westward extent looking at a combination of models but I do note that the GFS west of that and that model tends to have an eastern bias! If Cape values of in warm sector increase to the 1500 range, I expect the first high risk of the year and a possible repeat of soemthing like March 12th 2006. However, that is a big stretch from the instability values currently predicted, but yesterday out performed expectations as far as instability went (at least south and east of memphis) so you never know!

[dave48]

Gone up to a moderate risk now for tomorrow.

[Paul Sherman]

INITIAL/DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN

ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK/NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN KS DURING THE

DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED

BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS

THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED INITIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL

DEVELOP BY SUNSET...WITH INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR NORTH TX

AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS.

In the spirit of the Virtual Chase Idea - As you can see from my post a few above this Would be in Oklahoma City and be staying there tonight in readiness to heading up towards to Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas Border along I-35 Hoping that something fires along the Dryline before 00z and in daylight hours

Paul S

[dogs32]

There was A Tornado on California

05 MATHER AFB SACRAMENTO CA 3855 12128 EF0 TORNADO, 0.25 MILE DAMAGE PATH, ESTIMATED 75 MPH WIND SPEED. DAMAGE INCLUDES UPROOTED TREES, BROKEN CAR WINDOWS, AND BROKEN SIGNAGE. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR INJURIE (STO)

[craig1uk]

Looking good today, if the cap is broken

[Arron]

Ahhh skew T's! Currently head down getting around these bad boys and think I've cracked it

EDIT: Just noticed on these soundings that the line is already drawn on them to find the LCL, LFC, EL, Cape and CIN? The faint black one?

Edited February 27, 2011 by Smokes

[craig1uk]

Ahhh skew T's! Currently head down getting around these bad boys and think I've cracked it

EDIT: Just noticed on these soundings that the line is already drawn on them to find the LCL, LFC, EL, Cape and CIN? The faint black one?

Yea thats my understanding, makes it alot easier eh ! Still learning how to decipher them myself, currently working through a tutorial at Meted http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_convective.php if thats of any help to anyone ?

[Arron]

Yeah it certainly does! I'm still going to get my head around it though so I know how to make the line myself etc as most sites with the soundings don't have that on.

Thanks for the link, always good to have another resource

[Dorsetbred]

Ahhh skew T's! Currently head down getting around these bad boys and think I've cracked it

EDIT: Just noticed on these soundings that the line is already drawn on them to find the LCL, LFC, EL, Cape and CIN? The faint black one?

Ahh those damn Skew T's, been trying to muster them for a while.

Back the tut Internet

[Arron]

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/02/23/skew-tlog-p-plots/

This has helped me a lot, and along with Craig's link, I'm sure you can crack it

[dogs32]

Craig you on T1..

and are you

going Cardiff?

thx info link also

no latest Twister reports so far today

2,600+ lightning CG's SO FAR

Edited February 27, 2011 by dogs32

[craig1uk]

Craig you on T1..

and are you

going Cardiff?

thx info link also

no latest Twister reports so far today

2,600+ lightning CG's SO FAR

Hello mate, yea T1 ( 60 days to go )

Can't make Cardiff tho sadly, had a photography course booked since Sept for this Sat, sods law eh!