February CET

[Milhouse]

Actually there is quite a bit of support for a warm March following on from a mild February. Going back to 1945 there have been 8 Februarys with a CET of at least 6c. Only once was the following March less than 7c.

[Weather-history]

Actually there is quite a bit of support for a warm March following on from a mild February. Going back to 1945 there have been 8 Februarys with a CET of at least 6c. Only once was the following March less than 7c.

Looking at the full records

18 times, a February of 6.0+ was followed by a March of 7.0+

22 times, a February of 6.0+ was followed by a March of less than 7.0C

6 occasions that a February of 6.0+ was followed by a March less than 5.7C

[Milhouse]

So there not much of a link between the two months overall. However in recent years the mild Februarys of 1990,1997, 1998, 2000 and 2002 have all been followed by a warm March.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Just curious, do you think the February is likely to end up as a top 5 or at least top 10 mildest on record?

Luke

[Milhouse]

Hi,

Just curious, do you think the February is likely to end up as a top 5 or at least top 10 mildest on record?

Luke

Personally i think the final figure will be around 6.5c so significantly above average but no where near record breaking. That would be round about the 9th warmest in the last century. However as history has shown it can get rather warm in the last part of February so a warm southerly would nudge us up more towards 7c.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Milhouse

[North-Easterly Blast]

More to the point of this Feb reaching 2002, 1998, 1990 or even 1779 levels, if this February exceeds 6.1*C for the CET then it will be the mildest February on record that has followed a very cold December, (sub 1*C). This record was set in 1871. In actual fact extending the cold threshold for December to sub 2*C, 6.1*C is also the record for a mild February following a sub 2*C December.

It is almost certain now that this months sets a record for the largest swing upwards from December to February ever.

So, we can say with certainty now that 2010/11 is the most "pear shaped" winter ever recorded since CET records began, and after such a cold start to fade out into nothing as early as December 27th is totally ludicrous, so as well as 2010/11 being the most "pear shaped" winter ever, it also must be the EARLIEST IN THE SEASON EVER "pear shaped" winter to go wrong.

By a "pear shaped" winter I mean one that sees cold early on looking like having great potential to turn into a severe winter or even a classic, to quickly fade out into nothing or even prolonged mild spells a la 1996-97, although even that year cold lasted until Jan 10th and Dec 1996 wasn't even anything like as cold as Dec 2010. I thought that was a big enough swing and that seemed dissappointing at the time, but 2010-11 has really exceeded 1996-97 by some way as a pear shaped winter. 1981-82 was another, although still with the cold till mid Jan and Feb 1982 still didn't reach the levels of mild that we have so far this month.

As much as the pre Xmas 2010 spell was exceptional, winter 2010-11 at least for me will remember it as dissappointing given the way it has faded badly. How badly it quickly faded away really has spoilt the cold early on. I really hope that we never see a 2010-11 type winter again. I certainly couldn't stand a repeat of 2010-11.

Edited February 13, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Isolated Frost]

7C+ Februaries in the CET Zone (1772-2011)

7.9C, 1779

7.5C, 1869

7.5C, 2011

7.3C, 1990

7.3C, 1998

7.2C, 1794

7.1C, 1903

7.1C, 1945

[Milhouse]

7C+ Februaries in the CET Zone (1772-2011)

7.9C, 1779

7.5C, 1869

7.5C, 2011

7.3C, 1990

7.3C, 1998

7.2C, 1794

7.1C, 1903

7.1C, 1945

That shows how exceptional this month has been so far. A few days ago i would have said we would be challenging for the record come the end of the month. However the return of the Atlantic has been delayed by a day or two hence my 6.5c.

[lukemc]

More to the point of this Feb reaching 2002, 1998, 1990 or even 1779 levels, if this February exceeds 6.1*C for the CET then it will be the mildest February on record that has followed a very cold December, (sub 1*C). This record was set in 1871. In actual fact extending the cold threshold for December to sub 2*C, 6.1*C is also the record for a mild February following a sub 2*C December.

It is almost certain now that this months sets a record for the largest swing upwards from December to February ever.

So, we can say with certainty now that 2010/11 is the most "pear shaped" winter ever recorded since CET records began, and after such a cold start to fade out into nothing as early as December 27th is totally ludicrous, so as well as 2010/11 being the most "pear shaped" winter ever, it also must be the EARLIEST IN THE SEASON EVER "pear shaped" winter to go wrong.

By a "pear shaped" winter I mean one that sees cold early on looking like having great potential to turn into a severe winter or even a classic, to quickly fade out into nothing or even prolonged mild spells a la 1996-97, although even that year cold lasted until Jan 10th and Dec 1996 wasn't even anything like as cold as Dec 2010. I thought that was a big enough swing and that seemed dissappointing at the time, but 2010-11 has really exceeded 1996-97 by some way as a pear shaped winter. 1981-82 was another, although still with the cold till mid Jan and Feb 1982 still didn't reach the levels of mild that we have so far this month.

As much as the pre Xmas 2010 spell was exceptional, winter 2010-11 at least for me will remember it as dissappointing given the way it has faded badly. How badly it quickly faded away really has spoilt the cold early on. I really hope that we never see a 2010-11 type winter again. I certainly couldn't stand a repeat of 2010-11.

Interesting to here your thoughts - I myself was very puzzled at how we can have a mild to very mild second half of winter after a very cold (subzero CET) December yes December was exceptional but after such a December I would not expect January and February to be as snowless as they have been - and I find it difficult to understand how the synoptics conductive to cold and snow just vanished into thin air. Yes you can mention La Nina but other parts of the Northern Hemisphere have had cold and snow spells so they do not seem to be as affected by this La Nina effect as much as us.

Yes I am an optimist, but even I am starting to reach breaking point as far as looking for cold and snow is concerned LOL!

Luke

[DAVID SNOW]

Great post NEB.

Though your last paragraph would be open to peoples perception

[Optimus Prime]

Highly likely (90%+) the CET will finish well below 7.0c now. Large falls probable.

[Weather-history]

1981-82 has been mentioned

The CET up to the 12th of February 1982 was 6.8C

The cET for the 12th of February 2004 was about 8.1C

[reef]

Hadley is on 7.4C to the 13th. Yesterday was 6.0C.

Just 1.4C is required now for the remaining 15 days to equal the 1971-2000 average and if something along the lines of the GFS 6z came to fruition then a finishing number of above 7C wouldnt be unrealistic.

[Scorcher]

Highly likely (90%+) the CET will finish well below 7.0c now. Large falls probable.

Think 90% is overdoing it, and 'well below' is certainly doubtful.

[reef]

The temperatures shown on the GFS 18z, even without taking account of the model often underestimating maxima would give a provisional value of 7.1C for the month.

That would make it the joint 6th mildest February in the CET series.

It would be very strange to have the 2nd coldest December and joint 6th mildest February on record in the same winter.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The temperatures shown on the GFS 18z, even without taking account of the model often underestimating maxima would give a provisional value of 7.1C for the month.

That would make it the joint 6th mildest February in the CET series.

It would be very strange to have the 2nd coldest December and joint 6th mildest February on record in the same winter.

As I have mentioned before the record mild February that has followed a cold December (sub 2*C) is Feb 1871 which had a CET of 6.1*C, after a CET of 0.6 in the preceding December. Also the mildest a winter containing a sub zero month has ever finished at is 2.9*C, in 1955-56 and 1985-86.

So, anything over 5.8 for this month and that record goes, anything over 6.1 for February and it is the mildest February on record to follow a very cold December, so then Winter 2010-11 will surely go down in the annals of history as the most pear shaped winter ever recorded, and also to go belly up in late December whereas in 1870-71 the cold still lasted for most of January. Certainly if intense cold develops in late Nov / early Dec again there will be frequent references to 2010-11 as the winter that started off so severe but quickly deteriorated into such rubbish. Two thirds of winter 2010-11 has certainly been rubbish and up to nothing, much like most Jans / Febs were in the 1990s and 2000s.

[Weather-history]

Certainly if intense cold develops in late Nov / early Dec again there will be frequent references to 2010-11 as the winter that started off so severe but quickly deteriorated into such rubbish. Two thirds of winter 2010-11 has certainly been rubbish and up to nothing, much like most Jans / Febs were in the 1990s and 2000s.

I point out that January 2011 was actually colder than 17 Januarys since 1987 for the CET. It was actually colder than 6 Januarys of the 1960s for the CET.

Would you be saying that if January 2011 had the same temperature but was a bit more snowier? It comes down more to snow with January, you can't really complain too much on the temperature front with January.

[Optimus Prime]

I'm beginning to think 'Pear-Shaped' is the worse metaphor invented, ever.

[reef]

Hadley is 7.3C to the 14th, yesterday was 5.4C.

Another fall likely today as temperatures are in single figures and the minima is down as 1.0C.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I point out that January 2011 was actually colder than 17 Januarys since 1987 for the CET. It was actually colder than 6 Januarys of the 1960s for the CET.

Would you be saying that if January 2011 had the same temperature but was a bit more snowier? It comes down more to snow with January, you can't really complain too much on the temperature front with January.

If January 2011 had followed most Decembers the UK has had since the 1960s at least, or even most Decembers since the 1800s, then myself and many others would have found its temperature front satisfactory, it is just that coming on top of such an exceptional pre Xmas spell it felt on the mild side, as you have got used to such serious cold.

This February has been utterly dire to say the least - no snow at all and little if any frost either, and maxima often in double figures on many days up to this week at least.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley is 7.3C to the 14th, yesterday was 5.4C.

Another fall likely today as temperatures are in single figures and the minima is down as 1.0C.

I have to say that it now looks as though February could be the first snowless winter month since 2002, appaling.

In regards to the CET, i cannot see a finish above 7C, however i think that we will still be above 6C on the 25th.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Decembers 2006 and 2007 passed by without a flake of sleet or snow falling in most parts of the country, so we don't have to go back quite that far for a snowless winter month. But snowless Februarys are exceedingly rare (more so than Januarys, which produced two widespread instances in 1989 and 1992), and it's quite feasible that some lowland parts of northern England could report their first completely snowless February for many decades.

The progress of the CET will depend on how this battleground scenario pans out, but a cold easterly is verging on "out of the question". A "no-man's land" scenario will probably yield an outcome somewhere in the low to mid 6s, but if we get a broad SW'ly and high pressure to the S and SE like the GFS keeps showing past T+168, then a CET above 7C is plausible.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

If January 2011 had followed most Decembers the UK has had since the 1960s at least, or even most Decembers since the 1800s, then myself and many others would have found its temperature front satisfactory, it is just that coming on top of such an exceptional pre Xmas spell it felt on the mild side, as you have got used to such serious cold.

This February has been utterly dire to say the least - no snow at all and little if any frost either, and maxima often in double figures on many days up to this week at least.

Hi NEB,

Dire? maybe, but it's the way our 'wonderful' weather works, winds us up for a biggie and drops us flat on our faces. It seems to me that the GFS has undercooked the temps a little on the meodels, or you may be right and it just FEELS milder.

Mid 7's or higher by the end of the month would be my guess it the GFS is right

Edited February 15, 2011 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[North-Easterly Blast]

Decembers 2006 and 2007 passed by without a flake of sleet or snow falling in most parts of the country, so we don't have to go back quite that far for a snowless winter month. But snowless Februarys are exceedingly rare (more so than Januarys, which produced two widespread instances in 1989 and 1992), and it's quite feasible that some lowland parts of northern England could report their first completely snowless February for many decades.

The progress of the CET will depend on how this battleground scenario pans out, but a cold easterly is verging on "out of the question". A "no-man's land" scenario will probably yield an outcome somewhere in the low to mid 6s, but if we get a broad SW'ly and high pressure to the S and SE like the GFS keeps showing past T+168, then a CET above 7C is plausible.

I also think that February 2008 passed by without a flake of snow in most parts of the country. January 2008 saw hardly any snow either. January and February 2006 hardly saw any snow in most parts of the country, and so did January 2005. December 2002 also passed by without a flake of snow in most parts of the country. Regarding snowless Februarys, I also think that as well as 2008, Febs 1997 and 1998 could not be far off.

[Optimus Prime]

Bit of a kick in the nuts really. Could well top 8.0c if those southerly winds finish of this month. Certainly has been dreadful. Equal in terms of mild as December was for cold I'd say.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Optimus Prime