February CET

[Jack Wales]

So here are the final entries...

Barry 1.7°C

Summer Blizzard 2.4°C

Backtrack 2.7°C

Roger J Smith 2.7°C

The Music Land 2.9°C

themusicland 2.9°C

Polar Gael 3.0°C

geoffw 3.1°C

Steve B 3.1°C

Mr Data 3.2°C

Terminal Moriane 3.2°C

Shuggee 3.3°C

Snowstorm1 3.5°C

Stationary Front 3.5°C

Sundog 3.5°C

Sunlover 3.5°C

DeepSnow 3.6°C

Ben_Cambs 3.7°C

Lomond Snowstorm 3.8°C

Midlands Ice Age 3.8°C

Nigerian Prince 3.8°C

A Winters Tale 3.9°C

Fozfoster 3.9°C

Great Plum 3.9°C

North Norfolk Weather 3.9°C

Abbaman 4.0°C

Damians Law 4.0°C

daveshug 4.0°C

Jackone 4.0°C

RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.0°C

stewfox 4.0°C

Alza 4.1°C

Paul T 4.4°C

Summer Of 1995 4.4°C

Atlantic Flamethrower 4.5°C

Gavin P 4.5°C

Milhouse 4.6°C

The Watcher 4.6°C

DR Hosking 4.7°C

Norrance 4.7°C

Pete Tattum 4.7°C

AderynCoch 4.8°C

coram 4.8°C

Don 4.8°C

Mark Bayley 4.8°C

Sunny Weather 4.8°C

Virtual Sphere 4.8°C

Born From The Void 4.9°C

Isolated Frost 4.9°C

Tony H 4.9°C

Croatian Weather 5.0°C

Glacier Point 5.0°C

The Pit 5.0°C

Arb 5.1°C

Snowray 5.1°C

Stargazer 5.1°C

Stormmad26 5.1°C (late submission)

Tom D 5.1°C

Bristle Boy 5.2°C

Thundery Wintry Showers 5.2°C

Reef 5.3°C

DAVID SNOW 5.4°C

Kentish Man 5.5°C

cheeky_monkey 5.8°C

Optimus Prime 5.9°C

Snow?Norfolk and Chance 5.9°C

Jack Wales 6.1°C

Boiling Is Better 7.0°C

Craig Evans 8.0°C

Edited February 1, 2011 by Jack Wales

[Duncan McAlister]

Sorry about the late entry, 5.5C for me.

[drfeelgood]

3.3C for me if it's not too late!

[reef]

Hadley is on 3.3C to the 1st, which could potentially be the low point for the month.. Today's min is 2.2C, with max temperatures in the CET zone generally in the 8-10C range, so an increase to 4.0-4.4C by tomorrow's update looks likely.

[welshgritter]

3.2 (fingers crossed!)

[summer blizzard]

Hadley is on 3.3C to the 1st, which could potentially be the low point for the month.. Today's min is 2.2C, with max temperatures in the CET zone generally in the 8-10C range, so an increase to 4.0-4.4C by tomorrow's update looks likely.

Certainly looks like a mild start.

Based on currentl model outputs, i think that the CET will be around 5C by the 7th, and around 6C by the 12th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.9C to the 2nd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 6.4C. Minimum for today is 3.2C and maxima look like being around or just above 9C so we should be at about 5.3C by tomorrows update.

After that, going by the 06 GFS we'll be at

6.1C to the 4th

7.1C to the 6th

7.1C to the 8th

6.2C to the 10th

[Snowyowl9]

Just been having a look at the most snowless february and surprise suprise it`s 1998 heatwave month.

But you wouldn`t think it looking at few charts early and late,the only 2 days when sleet or snow fell here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00219980201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980228.gif

Should be looking at a previous la nina month.

This month looks deceiving mild or very mild first half cold 2nd half I`ll go for or last 10 days.

Could be just slightly above average.

[Koppite]

Sorry its late (internet problems,) 3.8C for me please.

Edited February 3, 2011 by Koppite

[reef]

Hadley is now on 5.6C to the 3rd. Yesterday was mild at 6.9C.

It could be milder still today, with maxes well into double figures in most places.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surprised to see the max was 10.6C. Was only forecast by the GFS to be around 8C!

Minimum for today is 3.8C and maxima could be over 12C (despite the 06z GFS showing it as ~10.5C), so 6.2C by tomorrowa update looks about right.

If the forecast maxima continue to be much lower than reality, these figures could be up to around a degree too low, but anyway, going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

7.8C to the 6th

7.3C to the 8th

7.0C to the 10th

[reef]

Hadley is on 6.1C to the 4th, yesterday was very mild at 7.8C.

Today's min is down as 10.0C, so we could be looking at 7.0-7.2C on tomorrow's update as maxima are generally in double figures apart from the northern part of the zone.

Its certainly going to be a very mild first half of the month.

[Milhouse]

7.1c to the 5th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[reef]

7.1c to the 5th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yes a very mild day yesterday coming in at 10.8C.

Today will be equally mild as the min temp is down as 9.7C. A value of 7.5-7.7C is likely for tomorrow's update.

[Snowstorm1]

It may sound weird but I want this CET to go as high as possible because by midmonth its going to come crashing down!

[AderynCoch]

It may sound weird but I want this CET to go as high as possible because by midmonth its going to come crashing down!

I hope you're right, but it's all rather tentative at present is it not? It's probably going to take something special in the second half of the month to get back down to average, though I'd say my 4.8C is still in play.

[summer blizzard]

I hope you're right, but it's all rather tentative at present is it not? It's probably going to take something special in the second half of the month to get back down to average, though I'd say my 4.8C is still in play.

Something pretty special is what the models are indeed showing, the second half of the month may well average close to 0C.

[reef]

Hadley is 7.7C to the 6th, yesterday was again very mild at 10.7C.

Another slight increase possible tomorrow as the min temp for today is down as 8.9C.

Already a mean of 3.3C is needed for the remaining 22 days just to reach the 1971-2000 average.

[Don]

Hadley is 7.7C to the 6th, yesterday was again very mild at 10.7C.

Another slight increase possible tomorrow as the min temp for today is down as 8.9C.

Already a mean of 3.3C is needed for the remaining 22 days just to reach the 1971-2000 average.

An above average month must be pretty likely now, especially as it's looking unlikely that the very cold air will make it to our shores from mid month. Although, still a lot of uncertainty for next week and beyond.

Edited February 7, 2011 by Don

[damianslaw]

An above average month must be pretty likely now, especially as it's looking unlikely that the very cold air will make it to our shores from mid month. Although, still a lot of uncertainty for next week and beyond.

Mmm I wouldn't be so confident that the very cold air won't make it mid-month, all the signs are for a much colder second half to the month. However, the very mild start will make it very difficult to see a below average month I imagine, but there is a possibility still depending on how cold it becomes. I remember Feb 05 which saw 2 very mild weeks cancelled out by 2 cold weeks delivering a near average CET value by the months end.

[Weather-history]

The CET for the February 2004 up to the 7th was 10.2C and that ended up as 5.4C The real cool down for that month didn't begin until the 20th, the CET was 7.3C up to the 19th.

The mildest winter month since at least February 2008 looks favourable.

Edited February 8, 2011 by Mr_Data

[BornFromTheVoid]

8.0C to the 7th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 10.2C. Todays minimum is -0.8C and maxima look like being around 8C so probably a drop back to 7.5C by tomorrows update.

Looking ahead and going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

7.6C to the 10th

7.7C to the 12th

7.1C to the 14th

6.9C to the 15th

Still feel quite confident with my 4.9C, hopefully will be better than my last 2 guesses!

[summer blizzard]

8.0C to the 7th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 10.2C. Todays minimum is -0.8C and maxima look like being around 8C so probably a drop back to 7.5C by tomorrows update.

Looking ahead and going by the 06z GFS we'll be at

7.6C to the 10th

7.7C to the 12th

7.1C to the 14th

6.9C to the 15th

Still feel quite confident with my 4.9C, hopefully will be better than my last 2 guesses!

It certainly looks like the CET should fall fairly quickly from monday, though while i accept that my 2.4C is out of reach, i think that the models do favour a below average outcome, though not by much.

3.5C is the floor for me, 5C the upper limit.

[Scorcher]

It certainly looks like the CET should fall fairly quickly from monday, though while i accept that my 2.4C is out of reach, i think that the models do favour a below average outcome, though not by much.

3.5C is the floor for me, 5C the upper limit.

Next week doesn't look massively cold though, cooler yes but I don't think it's going to be cold enough to take the month below average.

[Paul T]

I have a feeling this could be one of the mildest Febs on record. This point is largely based on the trending of the GFS ensembles over the last few days; They hint at cold at 192hrs, only to remove it, and replace with SW'rlys; Classic signal for consistantly mild weather.

This, and the fact that Dec's very very cold month has to be cancelled out - But this is more of a spiritual ying and yang stand point.

I am currently thinking the finishing mark will be above 6.3oc.

Paul