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Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

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We are now pretty much half way through the winter, is there any more severe weather on the way.

Certainly turning cooler next week with some much needed drier weather and perhaps some sunshine.

After some signs of colder weather from ECM at around T+144 from a Northerly blast, GFS not allowing enough ridging between the Mid Atlantic High to Greenland, so no cold spell until GFS goes into low resolution.

ECM 12Hz coming out now, so it will be worth seeing if this continues with the northerly theme of yesterday 12Hz and today 00Hz at around T+144.

Update - there is a northerly of sorts of tonight's ECM, but IMO it does appear to be slowly downgrading.

But at least this does sunny weather for us, especially in south Wales.

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Although mild lately, January temperatures are close to average here, with a mean maximum of 7.3c and minimum of 2.5c at this the half way point. Nothing that extreme temperature wise so far, with a high of 11c and low of just -3c so far.

Rainfall wise, a very wet first half, 147mm here so far which would be the average for a whole January.

In sharp contrast to November and December, snow has only fallen on one day in the first half the month.

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No Snow here this month, with the exception of last winter, January has been relatively snow free over the past decade. Will there be snow here this January, too early to tell given current synoptics, however not inconceivable that there will be no (further) snow this month for msny.

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I know they're totally unreliable but BBC 5 day forecast has 0C and light snow for Friday. Is there anything in this?

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I know they're totally unreliable but BBC 5 day forecast has 0C and light snow for Friday. Is there anything in this?

Think its a mistake. It says sunny in Cardiff and Merthyr for the same time. You never know though

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Think its a mistake. It says sunny in Cardiff and Merthyr for the same time. You never know though

I think you're right. Temperature looks quite chilly on Friday but not sure where they got the precip from

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Twas a beautiful morning here - almost spring-like

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Well folks - it's blue monday today - when apparently most people are depressed - and right now the weather models aren't delivering what we'd all like to see - snow in abundance - seems a high is now moving ontop of Wales for the forseeable - seeing off any severe cold or any appreciable precip - so - weather is going be a bit boring for a little while - only good thing about it is we may see the sun - that may well make us feel a little better!:smiliz19:

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It will be good to see the sun again, preferably with night time frosts, but perhaps I am being a bit picky.

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Quite bizzare - but the met office are showing a bit of snow on Friday.:clap::cold::help: !!!!! You have to look at the wales forecast (not the whole country) on Friday morning and there it is - the snowflake for us all to share - I suspect it will fall in Andy's back yard!. Not sure where it's coming from?! Any ideas?

Sorry Cwmbran eira - I posted before I saw your post ( and the previous ones!!)

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What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

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Congratulations!

Da Iawn Adam.

:-D

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What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

Llongyfarchiadau Adam!!

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What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

well done mate - got a skill for life there - as long as the flippin gov don't price petrol way out of the ball park - you might not need to drive - you might have to learn to get out and push

as for friday's snow flake on the BBC - mmmmmmmmmmm - I'll fight you all for it - well the GFS 18z is going in the right direction to pull colder air into the UK and possibly some light snizzle/drizzle/sleety/mix - if the trend continues and the colder air moves even further over in our direction - well who knows - but I wouldn't hold your breath just yet

edit:- just opened front door - crikey - flippin cold - return of the cold - the cold strikes back - a good thing for now!

18z does have some improvements - but not for us just yet

rart_11012412_1718.gif?938a501e475ec57eb1068049d728d83a

edit:- and yes I know - this chart is a week away - clutching at straws once again :crazy:

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Despite the improvement on the GFS 18Hz, this would only bring, dry bright cold and sunny weather.

Actually I'd settle for that.

What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

Congratulations and Drive Carefully now, Llongyfarchiadau ac Gyrri Di'n ofalus nawr.

well done mate - got a skill for life there - as long as the flippin gov don't price petrol way out of the ball park - you might not need to drive - you might have to learn to get out and push

as for friday's snow flake on the BBC - mmmmmmmmmmm - I'll fight you all for it - well the GFS 18z is going in the right direction to pull colder air into the UK and possibly some light snizzle/drizzle/sleety/mix - if the trend continues and the colder air moves even further over in our direction - well who knows - but I wouldn't hold your breath just yet

edit:- just opened front door - crikey - flippin cold - return of the cold - the cold strikes back - a good thing for now!

18z does have some improvements - but not for us just yet

edit:- and yes I know - this chart is a week away - clutching at straws once again :crazy:

I know you are getting desperate when we see these charts showing snow in SE England. :whistling:

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What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

Big :clap: well done Adam, congratulations, nothing better than passing your driving test. Welcome to the poor world, as once you drive and have a car, you will never be rich again lol. Well worth it though.

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Congratulations Adam no mean feat passing your test these days, quite cold this morning indoor weather station says 2 deg and I'm feeling cold without going out in it yet

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What a dull day water logged fields in Carmarthen, where I finally passed my driving test! Haleliwia :D

Would much rather frost, snow and ice. Looks like January will return fairly average in terms of CET however.

Congratulations Adam :)

Cold frosty morning here, which is nice to see! Currently 2.6C

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Quite bizzare - but the met office are showing a bit of snow on Friday.:clap::cold::help: !!!!! You have to look at the wales forecast (not the whole country) on Friday morning and there it is - the snowflake for us all to share - I suspect it will fall in Andy's back yard!. Not sure where it's coming from?! Any ideas?

Sorry Cwmbran eira - I posted before I saw your post ( and the previous ones!!)

Ha! No worries.

The snow has turned into a big orange sun now. Damn it!. Better than wind & rain though

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Really lovely day here in sunny magor. Lots of ice on the car this morning but was nice not to have the rain. Quite chilly walking the dog but it got warmer as the day went on. I can get use to this (I hope), not even so worried about more snow now after all the rain, this is such an improvement :rolleyes:

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What a lovely almost Spring-like day after a frosty start. Felt mild in the sun although it only reached 7c. Hope it stays like this all week!

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What a lovely almost Spring-like day after a frosty start. Felt mild in the sun although it only reached 7c. Hope it stays like this all week!

Yea, didn't get above 6C here but it felt nice and spring like in the sun without any wind or rain!! I agree it would be nice if it stayed like this all week, with frosty mornings and fine, sunny cool days!

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Sounds like you'll both get your wish - high pressure in charge for the forseeable - some on the model thread are seeing winter ghosts - with tales of easterlies/north easterlies/blizzards/retrogressing highs/ - all a bit far fetched right now I have to admit :wallbash:

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What a lovely almost Spring-like day after a frosty start. Felt mild in the sun although it only reached 7c. Hope it stays like this all week!

You know what I fully agree with that. It did feel very nice in the sun today (+1). Much prefer this weather to last week.

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Sounds like you'll both get your wish - high pressure in charge for the forseeable - some on the model thread are seeing winter ghosts - with tales of easterlies/north easterlies/blizzards/retrogressing highs/ - all a bit far fetched right now I have to admit :wallbash:

I don't know, I trust BFTP and Chionomaniac alot and they do seem to think something is on the cards for us come the start of February. Until then I hope we have some cold frosty days. Keithlucky also thinks that we will have a cold spell coming :)

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