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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Vania

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The first tropical cyclone of the year has formed in the South Pacific, 245 nautical miles of Noumea, New Caledonia. Deep convection has wrapped around the centre now, something invest 93P has struggled with over the last few days. Intensity has risen to 35kts, and the convectional wrap and persistance has prompted JTWC to upgrade the system to tropical cyclone 05P.

05P is in a favourable environment for intensification. Shear is low, water is warm and outflow is good, particularly in the equatorward quadrant of the LLC. 05P is moving southwestwards towards New Caledonia, where it will likely make landfall near Noumea as a strengthening storm. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 60kts, but 05P has the potential to become stronger than this. Therefore, New Caldedonia need to do all they can to prepare themselves for this storm.

After 05P clears New Caledonia, it will move southwards well east of the Australian mainland and begin to weaken over progressively lower sea surface temperatures and increasing shear.

sh0511.gif

post-1820-0-78162900-1294781537_thumb.jp

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we have something to track at least :D

20110111.1932.mtsat2.x.vis1km.05PFIVE.35kts-996mb-190S-1689E.100pc.jpg

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Named as TC Vania by RSMC Nadi.

GALE WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0100 UTC 2011 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2SOUTH 169.3 EAST AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 19.2S 169.3E AT 120000 UTC.CYCLONE SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IN THENORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THESECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.5S 168.5E AT 121200 UTC AND NEAR 20.1S 167.8E AT 130000 UTC.ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TOSEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USENORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCCAT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.

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Vania has strengthened today to 45kts. Banding is much stronger than yesterday, spiralling around the defined LLC. This structure puts Vania in a good position to intensify further as the cyclone heads towards New Caledonia. The track forecast is basically the same as yesterday, and can be seen updated in the first image I posted.

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Vania is intensifying at a faster than normal rate, with intensity now climbing to 60kts. Excellent banding surrounds the central dense overcast and an eye will probably soon appear. Excellent outflow, low shear and very warm sea temps have promoted Vania's intensification. Not only is New Caledonia at threat, it looks like Vania will go on to hit New Zealand as a potent extratropical storm.

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It may merge with a weakening trough pushing up the South Island (a fairly classic scenario here), but most models want to keep them distinct. The GFS has been sticking to its guns for days now, and likewise the ECMWF. The latter is a far worse scenario for NZ, but given how quickly it moves we may escape fairly lightly.

The charts over the last few days have been so strongly La Nina. Amazing easterly anomalies right through the tropics and subtropics in this part of the world. Inland parts of NSW, QLD and VIC are under an extremely warm moist northerly flow from the tropics.

Note that BoM have a tropical low just off the QLD coast, expected to become a TC at some point, and in the medium range it may have an effect on Vania.

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An earthquake has occurred under this system!

165_-20.gif

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Odd timing there Cookie!!

Vania's intensity did not exceed 60kts and has now fallen to 45kts. The cyclone is moving southwards and bringing strong winds and heavy rain to the eastern tip of New Caledonia. Overall however, convection has significantly decreased in association with Vania. Dry air has infiltrated from the north, and as Zelia started developing, Vania seemed to begin weakening, probably due to competition for resources (moisture mainly). Vania could intensify slightly as it clears New Caledonia but the cyclone will then meet colder waters and higher shear as it leaves the tropics.

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Vania is now an ex-TC and has reverted to its original designation of TD03F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan 15/0102 UTC 2011 UTC.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 988HPA WASANALYSED NEAR 24.4S 167.0E AT 150000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ONMTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACEOBSERVATIONS. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24HOURS. LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THESYSTEM. SST AROUND 26C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP LAYER MEANNORTHERLY FLOW. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCCGREATER THAN 0.75 DEGREE FROM DG YIELDING DT=2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FTBASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLYMOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC VANIA.

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