Summer 2011

[HotCuppa]

I would want a late wintery spring up to April, with hot thundery conditions reserved for late May, i am hoping for an April showers set up, something that we used to have in April! temperature hitting 61f(16c)-63f(17c) with clear blue skys and a groundheating sun that feels quite hot, building to thundery downpours, sharp intense with hail up to smallmarble rattling the car roofs!

Positive NAO and AMO will scupper any plans for a late winter...sadly its now over for northern Europe. Cold pools of air way to far away to ever make an impression over this way. The pole and the most northerly permanent settlement in Canada (Alert) has witnessed record warmth this month. The cold air is straddling mid north Canada (Yellowknife through the Great Lakes to the eastern seaboard) and the midwest through the east seaboard. This cold air will sink further south to affect the southern states during the early part of Feb.

One was hoping to see a pattern change, but it's just not going to happen, The indicators are right there at the moment pointing at a positive AMO and NAO..and it can only get worse for those want winter. The only late winter people will see is if they live in southern europe. In the UK all I can see is it gradually continuing to warm up between now and spring. Jan will probably end up breaking its own CET record.

Such a shame we had a very wimpy winter after a month of snow in December (some did). This month by comparison may as well be early summer

[Terminal Moraine]

It goes almost without saying that I'm hoping for the coldest and wettest summer on the CET record but what are the chances of that happening eh?

The CFS forecast has, for the last few months, been consistently indicating a much cooler but drier than average summer so that's a start.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think I've mentioned before that a "continental" spring does not provide the sort of rapid seamless transition from winter to summer that many make out. It starts off colder and warms up more quickly but is also prone to sharper temperature fluctuations, so you might get a frozen January and February with a mean temperature around freezing, a rapid warm-up in early March with 15C and sunshine... and then 3C and snow just a week later.

I think I would be quite happy with that, but those after a combination of cold snowy winters and warm snow/frost free springs might be rather disappointed- the fact of the matter is that such a climate doesn't exist on this planet, cold snowy winters equal potential for snow up to at least April. However, there's always the possibility of living in Finland during the winter and then moving to southern Spain at the beginning of March.

[Weather-history]

Jan will probably end up breaking its own CET record.

Unlikely

Edited January 16, 2011 by Mr_Data

[sundog]

I would like cold spring with night frosts and cold snaps from time to time with a chance of snow in march and april. My fav spring snow event was mid april 1998 when a polar low i think it was gave about 2 inches of snow during the night,not a huge amount but it was strange to wake up in a morning in mid april to see the place under a blanket of snow,although most of it was gone by the end of the day. I have a feeling that we will get a cold spring,just a hunch. As for summer well im no fan of very hot weather so a coolish but dry summer is what i always hope for.

[kimmirut]

This summer i want the whole north of the uk to get all the heat we need it, the south east don't. We haven't had a hot summer for about 3 years now the odd 25c day but thats not enough.. i want two months of 25c and constant sunshine then they can have the warmth no offence like haha we do deserve it after the cold winter (not that i don't like it) and 17c all the time and rain last summer.

[Alex]

Kimmirut, I think the whole of the uk needs heat after a damp cold winter! Best scenario would be a high sitting across Denmark pulling in south or southeast winds and it staying there for 2weeks before being replaced by another high over north france pulling in southwesterlies that way all areas see some heat! I wonder what the longest period a high has sat over the uk?

[ZONE 51]

A couple of months ago i came across a view from one scientist that la-nina is likely to cause a very wet UK spring..anyone ideas?.

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[Isolated Frost]

Wouldn't mind a Benelux High in Summer, with the HP briefly hitting SE and E England, and a warm SE'ly/S'ly flow, with low pressure kept WAYYY back in the Atlantic, with the odd change to a more Anti-Cyclonic over the UK setup.

[Weather-history]

Looking back at past La Nina's and cold spells in the spring if anything

1903-04: cold March

1906-07: -

1908-09: cold March

1916-17: was a severe winter which extended well into April

1920-21: -

1924-25: cold March after mild winter

1928-29: cold April after severe winter

1931-32: cold February-April period

1938-39: -

1942-43: unusual snow event in May in north

1949-50: notable late season snow event in south

1954-55: cold extended into March, late season snow event in May

1955-56: cold April

1964-65: very wintry first half to March

1970-71: Cold March

1973-74: -

1974-75: wintry spells in the spring

1975-76: cold March

1988-89: cold April

1995-96: cold spells in the spring

1998-99: notable wintry spell in April

1999-00: first half of April was cold

2000-01: wintry spells in March and April

2005-06: wintry March until last week

2007-08: wintry spells in late March and early April

2010-11: ?

Edited January 17, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Alex]

Looking back at January / Feb 2006, this year seems rather similar to this one, I just wonder if we will be getting a similar spring summer to 06? What were the analogues for this year?

[SizzlingHeat]

i look at these archives every day and dribble wishing it was summer now. anything to beat this crappy mild wet and windy weather. Dark at 4.30pm...yuk

6 months to go

[Isolated Frost]

i look at these archives every day and dribble wishing it was summer now. anything to beat this crappy mild wet and windy weather. Dark at 4.30pm...yuk

6 months to go

*Drools*

Edited January 17, 2011 by reef
Removed huge quoting of images

[abbaman]

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=3

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=4

This is from metchecks CFS system just the links.

[Ben_Cambs]

This summer i want the whole north of the uk to get all the heat we need it, the south east don't. We haven't had a hot summer for about 3 years now the odd 25c day but thats not enough.. i want two months of 25c and constant sunshine then they can have the warmth no offence like haha we do deserve it after the cold winter (not that i don't like it) and 17c all the time and rain last summer.

I'm sure that a period of sustained 25C and sunshine for 2 months has not occured in the South, even in 1976 I'm pretty sure it didn't let alone the North! That's just not going to happen I'm afraid.

[Gavin P]

Looking back at past La Nina's and cold spells in the spring if anything

1903-04: cold March

1906-07: -

1908-09: cold March

1916-17: was a severe winter which extended well into April

1920-21: -

1924-25: cold March after mild winter

1928-29: cold April after severe winter

1931-32: cold February-April period

1938-39: -

1942-43: unusual snow event in May in north

1949-50: notable late season snow event in south

1954-55: cold extended into March, late season snow event in May

1955-56: cold April

1964-65: very wintry first half to March

1970-71: Cold March

1973-74: -

1974-75: wintry spells in the spring

1975-76: cold March

1988-89: cold April

1995-96: cold spells in the spring

1998-99: notable wintry spell in April

1999-00: first half of April was cold

2000-01: wintry spells in March and April

2005-06: wintry March until last week

2007-08: wintry spells in late March and early April

2010-11: ?

Yes Kev, I think cold spells in La Nina March's and April's is actually quite a reliable pattern.

[Milhouse]

I'm sure that a period of sustained 25C and sunshine for 2 months has not occured in the South, even in 1976 I'm pretty sure it didn't let alone the North! That's just not going to happen I'm afraid.

August 1995 was one of the warmest months ever in the north. Glasgow Airport recorded a mean max of 22.9c which i imagine is not far from the average mean for London and the SE for July/August. So even in the hottest months it wont ever get that hot in the north. Still there were 9 days over 26c for Glasgow in August 1995 which would be fairly notable for any part of the UK.

Edited January 17, 2011 by Milhouse

[Ben_Cambs]

August 1995 was one of the warmest months ever in the north. Glasgow Airport recorded a mean max of 22.9c which i imagine is not far from the average mean for London and the SE for July/August. So even in the hottest months it wont ever get that hot in the north. Still there were 9 days over 26c for Glasgow in August 1995 which would be fairly notable for any part of the UK.

Last June into early July was fairly impressive here, 14 days in a row with the temperature hitting 25C, was a beautiful period of weather. One thing that was generally missing from last summer was a Spanish plume. According to the Met, no period summer of 2010 could of been counted as a heatwave (30C on 2 consecutive days, not falling below 15C at night for East Anglia). So one thing that was distinctly lacked last summer was thunderstorms, I recorded 5 days with thunder in the summer, though the average is about 14-15 for here.. Whether this summer can achieve something that meets the Met's "heatwave" standard, I don't know, but I would like to see one proper Spanish Plume, with a decent thunderstorm!

Edited January 17, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Isolated Frost]

Last June into early July was fairly impressive here, 14 days in a row with the temperature hitting 25C, was a beautiful period of weather. One thing that was generally missing from last summer was a Spanish plume. According to the Met, no period summer of 2010 could of been counted as a heatwave (30C on 2 consecutive days, not falling below 15C at night for East Anglia). So one thing that was distinctly lacked last summer was thunderstorms, I recorded 5 days with thunder in the summer, though the average is about 14-15 for here.. Whether this summer can achieve something that meets the Met's "heatwave" standard, I don't know, but I would like to see one proper Spanish Plume, with a decent thunderstorm!

The official WMO definition is:

5 days consecutive with the average temperature 5C above normal, a cold wave is the same, apart from below normal.

So, in July, a Heat Wave here would be 5 days with an average temperature above 21C (26C..16C would do it), and December 2010 must be one whole cold wave!

[Ben_Cambs]

The official WMO definition is:

5 days consecutive with the average temperature 5C above normal, a cold wave is the same, apart from below normal.

So, in July, a Heat Wave here would be 5 days with an average temperature above 21C (26C..16C would do it), and December 2010 must be one whole cold wave!

This is where I read the values on the Met website:

Threshold temperaturesRegionDay max (°C)Night min (°C)North East England 2815North West England 3015Yorkshire & Humber2915East Midlands 3015West Midlands 3015East of England 3015South East England 3116London3218South West England 3015Wales3015

This is where I originally read it from last year- Haven't had one of these warnings in a while though! :smiliz19: Though this may be for health rather than an actual heatwave warning, I'm not totally sure!

Source: http://www.metoffice.../uk/heathealth/

Edited January 17, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Isolated Frost]

Yeah, the MO and WMO have different values, I'm sticking with WMO this summer.

[Geordiesnow]

*Drools*

I'd certainly won't be drooling over that July 1976 chart, i obviously was not born then but to me, that screams out North Sea low cloud and quite chilly(compare to other areas). Of course, there is some exceptions to the rule in that we can get easterly winds but to my surprise, it actually stays sunny and fairly cool.

I do like summer but thunderstorms don't occur too often around here which is ashame but the 23rd September 2010 torrential downpours was pretty good. I guess that would be the norm for other areas mind!

[Isolated Frost]

My Heat/Cold Wave definition:

A select 5 day period with an average temperature 5C above/below the 61-90 average in that month. (not in a row, an average of 5 days in a row)

My Heat/Cold Snap definition:

A select 3 day period with an average temperature 5C above/below the 61-90 average in that month. (same as above)

If a wave/snap overlaps into the next month, average the two months' average temperatures of the 61-90 period, and use the same definitions.

Edited January 17, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Milhouse]

I'd certainly won't be drooling over that July 1976 chart, i obviously was not born then but to me, that screams out North Sea low cloud and quite chilly(compare to other areas). Of course, there is some exceptions to the rule in that we can get easterly winds but to my surprise, it actually stays sunny and fairly cool.

there arent any records of cloud cover/sunshine amounts but records show temperatures of 19-22c right on the coast during the 1976 heatwave. Thats pretty respectable if you ask me, especially as that particular chart from 1st July would suggest much cooler.

[Alex]

Ben cambs, east anglia and the southeast did have a level 2 heat health warning last summer around early-mid July. Think around the 8-12th.

Milhouse, not sure I would say 9 days of 26c would be too impressive in one month. I'm sure june and aug 09 got thereabouts and june/July 10 also in essex, an avg temp of 23c means 26c is only 3 above.

My definition of a heatwave is the met measure of 31c / 16c for the southeast. Anything between 25-30c is very warm for me but i probably wouldn't regard it as a heatwave.

With your measure isolated frost, a heatwave would be 28c max at day.