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damianslaw

Record Cold Christmas On The Cards?

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All the attention seems to be on the impending breakdown early next week - which is certainly not nailed yet.. and there will be many more twists and turns in the coming days..

What people should be turning there attention to now is the prospect of some very cold conditions on christmas eve and day as we see heights develop slap bang over the country across a very dense cold pool. Intense radiative cooling will take place with no winds, freezing fog is likely to develop in some spots and I am anticipating -20 degrees below temps in some places, with maxima for many in the north below -5 degrees on the big day itself.

I'd be interested to know what the coldest christmas days have been. Last year, many northern parts had a ice day, but the thaw slowly set in from the south west for many..

I think 1995 was the last truely cold christmas day with sub zero maxima for many.

Mr Data do you have the stats, and what are people's thoughts about the potential very cold minima overnight on the 24/25th and possibly 25th/26th.

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This looks very interesting Damian.

I though it was supposed to be getting milder by the end of this week but looking at the GFS looks to be staying the same, maybe some areas make it to 0C later in the week but then Xmas Eve & Xmas Day look to be taking a tumble with temps again.

Last years Xmas day was a very cold and didnt make it above about 0C all day, are you thinking it will beat that this time round?

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All the attention seems to be on the impending breakdown early next week - which is certainly not nailed yet.. and there will be many more twists and turns in the coming days..

What people should be turning there attention to now is the prospect of some very cold conditions on christmas eve and day as we see heights develop slap bang over the country across a very dense cold pool. Intense radiative cooling will take place with no winds, freezing fog is likely to develop in some spots and I am anticipating -20 degrees below temps in some places, with maxima for many in the north below -5 degrees on the big day itself.

I'd be interested to know what the coldest christmas days have been. Last year, many northern parts had a ice day, but the thaw slowly set in from the south west for many..

I think 1995 was the last truely cold christmas day with sub zero maxima for many.

Mr Data do you have the stats, and what are people's thoughts about the potential very cold minima overnight on the 24/25th and possibly 25th/26th.

"Record cold" What are the the various meteorological conditions/factors at play for the U.K. to approach the record low temp of -27.2oC?

Snow cover,deep prolonged cold airmass over the U.K.,very short days,a prolonged lowering of daytime maxima followed by nighttime minima and finally H.P. over the U.K. for maximum irradiation.

In the first cold spell at the start of the month Altnaharra recorded -22.1oC. Still -5.2oC short of surpassing the twice recorded U.K. record............

......

We are now,according to the latest models,approaching the end of this memorable cold spell and could have a couple of days left to challenge the record minima,for 2010!

In my analysis,both of my home town records from Fort William and the hourly records of Altnaharra at the Met Office latest hourly observations website i have observed an obvious trend in that whenever fog/mist/cloud cover arrives the temp at best stalls if not rise a touch.For example, today we have a 2 p.m. temp at Altnaharra of -17.5oC in zero wind speed but 5hrs later it has only dropped to -19.8oC ,again in zero wind speed with a cloudy symbol on the website.So, if things turned clear overhead from 7p.m. tonight in Alnaharra it would not be too unrealistic to expect a .7oC av hourly lowering drop in temp by 8.a.m. to record a new record of -28.9oC.

Things are never that simple,in the last 30 years we have been close to the Scottish( -27.2)and English(-26.7) records for absolute minima in the U.K. so what are the widely held views on how and less importantly where we could break the record low minima in the U.K. in the medium term?

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Mr Data do you have the stats, and what are people's thoughts about the potential very cold minima overnight on the 24/25th and possibly 25th/26th.

Did a thread on this last year.

Sub zero CET mean Christmas Days

1772: -4.0C

1779: -5.1C

1785: -0.3C

1794: -1.3C

1796: -10.8C

1798: -3.7C

1799: -0.5C

1808: -1.6C

1815: -0.8C

1817: -0.4C

1819: -0.8C

1820: -0.3C

1829: -0.9C

1830: -6.6C

1831: -0.7C

1835: -3.2C

1836: -0.9C

1840: -4.4C

1846: -1.9C

1853: -1.7C

1860: -0.8C

1870: -4.4C

1874: -0.5C

1878: -5.8C

1890: -1.4C

1891: -2.2C

1892: -2.4C

1904: -1.0C

1923: -1.1C

1925: -0.5C

1944: -1.8C

1961: -2.6C

1962: -3.6C

1964: -0.1C

1970: -0.1C

1981: -0.6C

1992: -0.5C

1995: -0.2C

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Did a thread on this last year.

Sub zero CET mean Christmas Days

1772: -4.0C

1779: -5.1C

1785: -0.3C

1794: -1.3C

1796: -10.8C

1798: -3.7C

1799: -0.5C

1808: -1.6C

1815: -0.8C

1817: -0.4C

1819: -0.8C

1820: -0.3C

1829: -0.9C

1830: -6.6C

1831: -0.7C

1835: -3.2C

1836: -0.9C

1840: -4.4C

1846: -1.9C

1853: -1.7C

1860: -0.8C

1870: -4.4C

1874: -0.5C

1878: -5.8C

1890: -1.4C

1891: -2.2C

1892: -2.4C

1904: -1.0C

1923: -1.1C

1925: -0.5C

1944: -1.8C

1961: -2.6C

1962: -3.6C

1964: -0.1C

1970: -0.1C

1981: -0.6C

1992: -0.5C

1995: -0.2C

Thanks for these stats. As I thought 1995 was the last sub zero day, 1992 stands out- christmas day coincided with a cold foggy spell - surface cold.

Good chance we will see our coldest CET christmas day since 1962. 1796 stands out - amazing temp!

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This is definately going to be the coldest snowiest christmas period I`ve ever know,except for no snow actually falling.

In order of date Cold christmas here with snow.

1981

1992

1993

1995

1996

1999

2000

2001

2004

2005 was on the cold side snow just missed by 2 days.

2009

2010

Christmas is getting snowier and colder the 80`s festive period mild and wet.

Merry christmas.

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I was just wondering has anyone put a bet on for a white christmas in the UK?

Does it need to snow on the 25th or does the snow lying count as a white christmas? Have a few quid on but am not sure :unsure:

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Has to fall, lying snow doesn't count. :)

Ah cheers. No chance then :(

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Merry christmas everyone. :smilz38:

Record cold christmas,I like to know what 1981 christmas day temps was as today has made it above 0c

for the first time for 8 days at 0.2c

Min of -7.8c though so the coldest christmas eve night ever,but nowhere near as cold as forecast,today especially I`m not believing these forecast shown a few days ahead now...they change these max temps so quickly but -1c was shown Wales shown -8c max Or -4c max was shown general forecast.

Needs something very special for a Jan max temps this isn`t.

2004 max was 0.7c so just 0.5c lower.

Thaw starting in the shade on gates,sliding snow off roof,west wind.

SE wind would be colder.

Upper air slowly rising.

0.5c now.

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Did a thread on this last year.

Sub zero CET mean Christmas Days

1772: -4.0C

1779: -5.1C

1785: -0.3C

1794: -1.3C

1796: -10.8C

1798: -3.7C

1799: -0.5C

1808: -1.6C

1815: -0.8C

1817: -0.4C

1819: -0.8C

1820: -0.3C

1829: -0.9C

1830: -6.6C

1831: -0.7C

1835: -3.2C

1836: -0.9C

1840: -4.4C

1846: -1.9C

1853: -1.7C

1860: -0.8C

1870: -4.4C

1874: -0.5C

1878: -5.8C

1890: -1.4C

1891: -2.2C

1892: -2.4C

1904: -1.0C

1923: -1.1C

1925: -0.5C

1944: -1.8C

1961: -2.6C

1962: -3.6C

1964: -0.1C

1970: -0.1C

1981: -0.6C

1992: -0.5C

1995: -0.2C

It could turn out to be the coldest Christmas Day CET daily mean since 1878

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Failed by a mile here mainly due to an higher than expected 2.4c during the day.

Although heading south my car started freezing up despite the car warmed up and been driven for more than half n hour. Noticed the car temp which is highly inaccurate reckoned the temp had dropped to -7C

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It was a cold day in Windermere but the -18 degrees BBC had showing for christmas eve never materialised. Indeed I think we only managed about -8.

We maxed out at -1 degrees on the day itself so not as cold as last year. Big difference with last christmas day was the surprise snowfall between 11.30-13:00 which left a couple of fresh cms of powder snow - superb and better than the christmas day 2004 snowfall due to the colder temps. Had we not seen the snowfall I would be rating last year as a much better day due to the brilliant blue skies and sunshine, but because of the snow this year beat it and more importantly the snow didn't thaw on Boxing Day unlike last year.

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Certainly my coldest Xmas, max was -5.1C, min -11.6C, always wondered if it would be one of the coldest for UK, my boxing day min -11.4C at around 7am before high cloud rolled in

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Turned out to be the coldest Christmas Day CET mean since 1830

Sub zero CET mean Christmas Days

1772: -4.0C

1779: -5.1C

1785: -0.3C

1794: -1.3C

1796: -10.8C

1798: -3.7C

1799: -0.5C

1808: -1.6C

1815: -0.8C

1817: -0.4C

1819: -0.8C

1820: -0.3C

1829: -0.9C

1830: -6.6C

1831: -0.7C

1835: -3.2C

1836: -0.9C

1840: -4.4C

1846: -1.9C

1853: -1.7C

1860: -0.8C

1870: -4.4C

1874: -0.5C

1878: -5.8C

1890: -1.4C

1891: -2.2C

1892: -2.4C

1904: -1.0C

1923: -1.1C

1925: -0.5C

1944: -1.8C

1961: -2.6C

1962: -3.6C

1964: -0.1C

1970: -0.1C

1981: -0.6C

1992: -0.5C

1995: -0.2C

2010: -5.9C

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Turned out to be the coldest Christmas Day CET mean since 1830

Remarkable, and the third coldest on record it would seem.

Do you have any information on how the three day period of Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (the Christmas 'trifecta' if you will) stacks up to historic records in term of CET?

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