Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[slb97]

Evening all, it's my birthday on the 20th so I'll put my request in for a snow flurry on that day please!

[SunnySouthCoast]

I honstly can't see us getting anything more to be excited about this winter now, especially down here on the coast. We were spoilt by December & should just be grateful we had that... The days are getting longer & the sun is getting stronger & the Atlantic looks set to dominate for the forseeable future. We can of course get surprise snowfall in March & April (though usually short lived events) but I'm hoping for an early spring with some nice warm & sunny weather, am fed up of the cold, damp & gloomy weather now

[butler_son]

I'm gonna honestly say that I have truly had my fill of snow after December. I'm pretty sick of feeling cold (am enjoying feeling warmth in my body) and am also glad that I can drive around the place in my car to visit people and socialise. So bring on warmth and mildness! Sunshine would be nice, but just so long as the daytime temp is above 6, right now I'm happy.

And this is from the man who wants to move to Montreal or Quebec City one day, though I and they would be ready for the snow there!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello.

As to further update my posts 353 and 375 in this thread which were partly accurate, I feel it's worth having a peek at the probable outcome for the next few days.

After some potential snow/wintriness on Monday a few cold/cool days (hopefully sunny) will follow and then the key date to watch I believe is still the 18th February. This is the date when things should become a pattern changer! This Full Moon date has been consistently shown by the models as a period when High Pressure looks likely to settle things down, however to what extent in terms of mild/very mild or cold? well, we will have to wait and see.

If the period after the next working week went in line with my forecast (post 353) I'd be well pleased. However if a Bartlett type High developed with the subsequently warmer airmass I reluctantly would welcome that too. Either way, let's hope there's no more zonality but you never know, we might then get more Northwesterly incursions and potential action from that lot.

Basically, as yet the models are undecided and so should we be and I am as I suggested above.

In summary, a messy outlook after an interesting week ahead of us is how it looks for now.

Whatever the weather, have fun out there.

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Gorgeous morning. Makes a change from the miserable past few days.

There is no doubt about it that the best of winter is well behind us, we will not beat December 2010 for many, many years. I think it's time for me to prepare to get into summer hibernation mode! We will definitely get some form of cold spell between now and April you would have thought, but in terms of prolonged, deep cold it's going to be difficult this late in the season.

[gottolovethisweather]

Gorgeous morning. Makes a change from the miserable past few days.

There is no doubt about it that the best of winter is well behind us, we will not beat December 2010 for many, many years. I think it's time for me to prepare to get into summer hibernation mode! We will definitely get some form of cold spell between now and April you would have thought, but in terms of prolonged, deep cold it's going to be difficult this late in the season.

Top post! Nick L.

However, the recent climatic cycle, which some folk believe was altered in February 2007 continues to prove that SNOW and BITTER COLD is far from being impossible as many recent months have confirmed.

Spring is not here yet and a few unexpected suprises could yet spring from nowhere because anything is possible. Hell, even the Isle of Wight has had more lying snow in the last couple of years than the previous 20 years. I hated most of the winters from 1988 to 2007 and after the last few, let's hope this a new trend.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[SunnySouthCoast]

Gorgeous day here today, cloudless blue sky & warm sunshine. Temp. is around 11C (52F), make the most of it though rain tomorrow .

As for next week, having just seen the national & local TV forecasts it does look set to get cooler into next week, though to be fair cooling down to just average temperatures (as opposed to the mild above average temperatures seen of late) with highs around 7C/8C.

[Dorsetbred]

A nice shower of hail here in Poole, around 16:45, with hailstones about 3mm in size.

[Dorsetbred]

Looks like the IOW is getting peppered at the mo (19:52) well at least the southern end.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello.

........................................... and then the key date to watch I believe is still the 18th February. This Full Moon date has been consistently shown by the models as a period when High Pressure looks likely to settle things down, however to what extent in terms of mild/very mild or cold? ..........................................However if a Bartlett type High developed with the subsequently warmer airmass I reluctantly would welcome that too.

gottolovethisweather

Well hello again. Not much action in here of late. Where's all my friends, gone away with the snow for now I suppose

The 18th February has arrived and what's changed! well it's brought a cold raw day to Newbury and a possible lamp-post watcher for some of us and others out there. NOTICE THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AS IT ABUTTS THE COLDER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.

So, what of the next few days and weeks, well I believe the pattern change as highlighted in red above will still take place but before this, there will be a battleground over the coming days. Currently favouring a warmer settled start to March and that's where my money is punted for now.

Before any long term look though, expect some daily surprises, why? ............................................................ because it is a complicated setup of events at current time as shown by the attached GFS ensembles.

Take a look at the scatter as soon as even +12/18 hours so where will the outcome develop from there? Anything from a +/-20c diurnal temperature range is suggested. Uppers also show a similar spread and theses examples, just being representative of Berkshire.

Personally I feel it's a very confused outlook for many, even if not for our region but for many others. As before, a WARMER and MORE SETTLED outlook is my best speculation at this stage with hopefully more sunshine to come, please.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 18, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[slb97]

Hello (although I expect most have gone into hibernation just like I'm going to) - lovely rain here at the moment, jealous about the snow that northern areas are getting from about Leeds upwards - even if the models are showing mild from now on at least they've had some snow first! Oh well, back to bed and looking at the radar it will be dry later which is one good thing I suppose.

[Polar Bear]

Hello my friends

Pleased you have all been still posting , if even a little less frequent. Good to hear that you still want to pop on even though the weather seems to be getting milder and more settled. Thank GTLW by the way again for your great thoughts. Like many I too really am fed up with cold and do want to see some nice sunshine (not when working though) at weekends please..

There has been granted some stupendous amount of rain in the past few days but I only take consolation in it is settling up the ground ready for spring.

So onto more settled and warmer times and I shall look forward to that (although a sudden snow event in March or April would be such a lovely treat)..... I do hope too that i see you on here every so often...you know who you are my friends,

Have fun all

Polar Bear. x

[coldfingers]

Hello all,

Lovely to see some sunshine again after such a wet and dreary day yesterday. In the last week I have seen a bumblebee, a couple of half dead looking ladybirds and two very much alive and brilliantly coloured butterflies sunning themselves in the unusual February warmth. Hope they found all somewhere warm to return to yesterday. Today is now up to 9.3C and I have now given up all hope of snow for the remainder of winter as it appears to have under gone a (gender?) change and thinks it is Spring. I am now looking forward to a little drier weather so that I can get the garden ready for some Spring planting.

I will pop in ocassionaly to see whether anyone else is around but it seems most have given up posting with the demise of any snow hope.

Edited February 20, 2011 by coldfingers

[coldfingers]

Hello all,

Lovely to see some sunshine again after such a wet and dreary day yesterday. In the last week I have seen a bumblebee, a couple of half dead looking ladybirds and two very much alive and brilliantly coloured butterflies sunning themselves in the unusual February warmth. Hope they found all somewhere warm to return to yesterday. Today is now up to 9.3C and I have now given up all hope of snow for the remainder of winter as it appears to have under gone a (gender?) change and thinks it is Spring. I am now looking forward to a little drier weather so that I can get the garden ready for some Spring planting.

I will pop in ocassionaly to see whether anyone else is around but it seems most have given up posting with the demise of any snow hope.

Don't know where else to post this and thought gottolovethisweather might be interested.

Today the temperature was a maximum of 15.1C and my husband is seeing two seperate female blackbirds sitting on nests in the local park. Is this unusually early? Also saw a few ladybirds very active, not half dead like the last ones I saw a week ago.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a quick post from me as I don't want to see CF just communicating with herself but for the anoraks out there.........

According to my garden records, I achieve an average First Blackbird Nesting Date of 6th March (based on 14 year's evidence) so I would certainly suggest that................ The various reports suggest this year's events are most certainly ahead of schedule, although not exceptionally so in terms of recent trends.

Alongside the above, if looking further afield, there is evidence of some resident birds alongside migrants such as Stone Curlew,Swallow,Sand Martin & Wheatear etc. that are already back on territory.

Now, back on topic, the weather. Well I haven't done much looking at the outputs BUT from a causal glance, it seems that HIGH PRESSURE is NEVER GOING TO BE FAR AWAY for the forseeable after the next few day's of rainfall, particularly ONOTW.

IF the above did prove correct, I'll be impressed with my past LRF type prediction as it proves I am reading the signals right, well let's hope so anyway. It would suit me fine as we head slowly into spring, eventually..........................

BUT BEWARE OF POSSIBLE SURPRISES TOO.

Springlike Phenological & Metrological Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! shouldn't enter posts alongside drinking too much brandy too often

Edited February 25, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Great to see the radar littered with heavy showers, certainly more exciting than some of the dross served up the past few weeks.

[Matt Taylor]

Thunder and lightning in Portsmouth at the moment, first thunder for many months here!

Storm approaching.

[coffee lover]

Thunder and lightning in Portsmouth at the moment, first thunder for many months here!

Storm approaching.

Lightning and thunder here on the east side of the isle of wight , just had one very heavy hail down pour

[Nick L]

Had a heavy rain/hail shower just. Can see the blue sky to the north now. I love days like this!

[coldfingers]

Had a heavy rain/hail shower just. Can see the blue sky to the north now. I love days like this!

I don't!!! Got soaked two days running. Serves me right for not checking the rainfall radar I suppose!

[flyer]

Well folks,

is there just an outside smidgen of a chance that we could grease up the runners for a sled run by the end of next week ?

It is only March the 5th after all. It used to snow readily this time of year "when I were a lad"

Well I still am just a tad older.

Butser Hill anyone.

Edited March 5, 2011 by flyer

[flyer]

I'll take that as a no then .

OK November it is.

Bugger looks like am going to have to travel to the darned stuff then.

till later.

much later !

Edited March 6, 2011 by flyer

[coldfingers]

I'll take that as a no then .

OK November it is.

Bugger looks like am going to have to travel to the darned stuff then.

till later.

much later !

Haha, gets boring talking to yourself doesn't it. I think everyone in this region seems to have deserted this thread. perhaps it should now be regional mild weather thread.

Sadly i think we have no chance of any more snow down here until December now.

Edited March 7, 2011 by coldfingers

[flyer]

Just in case anyone is still listening.

Don't forget to switch off your TV set and unplug from the wall.

Goodnight.