Tropical Cyclone 01S

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91S has acquired sufficient organisation to be designated the first tropical cyclone of the 2010/11 season with an initial intensity of 35kts. 01S has good central convection and strong banding to the west and south of the LLC. The cyclone is moving through warm waters and low shear, so strengthening appears likely. Although waters will remain warm on the west-southwesterly track over the next 5 days, shear is expected to increase in 3, resulting in weakening beyond this time. 01S is not a threat to land, and a subtropical steering ridge to the south-southeast should maintain the west-southwesterly track.

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[Somerset Squall]

Shear rose much earlier than expected, and reached unfavourable levels yesterday. This shear has not eased, and prevented 01S from exceeding 35kt intensity. The reason why I am speaking in past tense is that 01S has been unable to generate enough persistant convection over the last 12hrs to remain a tropical cyclone. With moderate shear and slowly decreasing sea temps, regeneration is not expected.