Winter Forecast Now Online

[rbw]

This predicted lack of rain is getting serious - a winter drought looming. We have hardly had any all year

[smich]

As always, GP has based his forecast on sound meteorological logic, given the current scenario. I think some of those who regard the forecast as "punt" might do well to look through the forecasters track record...

The Nina signal is very strong, and ridging in the Pacific and Atlantic looks a good call. There have been many focuses of attention over recent winters here at NW, with Sea Surface Temps, Stratospheric warming events and Oscillations all considered as primary drivers of our winter weather. I personally look to the NAO/AO as my guide. There is an element of chicken and egg to it of course, but it's mainly because the "consequences" are more short term that I favour those teleconnections.

Top forecast, hope it comes off, because it means lots of cold sunny weather!

Steve M

[Essan]

Dunno what Paul's been saying to the press, but they seem to have seen a differnt forecast to us

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321288/Arctic-blast-set-hit-Britain-Polar-winds-blowing-south.html

Netweather said the winter drought will be caused by westerly winds - which usually bring rain - being blocked by freak air pressure changes over the Atlantic Ocean

:lol:

Netweather also said back-to-back White Christmases are on the cards

2010 and 2011?! :o Bit bold predicting over 12 months ahead isn't it

(okay technically a white christmas in a few places last year, but not exactly widespread - we didn't even get a frost! - and the actual forecast, rightly, doesn't even mention Christmas. I guess that was a journalistic question?)

Edited October 18, 2010 by Essan

[snow raven]

Initial read, I admit, I was chuffed with the average/below average temps predicted, but bloody gutted at the expected dry weather. Love the cold, but also want a bit of precipitation/snow prospects mixed in with it. However, on reflection, if the UK stays cold enough, and the weather fronts throw in a few suprises rain/snow wise, I will be one happy bunny. (and hopefully the forecast isnt there to predict every weather front!)

However, if it turns out to be disapointing storm wise in the SE as it did this year snow wise, I will be wondering where the hell any remotely exciting weather has disapeared off to!

Have to admit, I think this will be one disapointing winter for some - cold temperatures, lack of precipitation.

Edited October 18, 2010 by snow raven

[Isolated Frost]

Dunno what Paul's been saying to the press, but they seem to have seen a differnt forecast to us

http://www.dailymail...wing-south.html

Honestly, they get right on my nerves.

[Timmead]

You know, they have billions of pounds in meterological equipment and still Netweather seems to get more right than they do.

Hell, GP seems to get it right 90% of the time using only teleconnections.

It's not guesswork when you put the effort in, it's a forecast. and forecasts go wrong, just like the MetO's did, but they didn't take it on the chin, no, they decided not to do it anymore they got it wrong so many times.

Firstly, I think you'll find you are plain wrong on that front - Netweather(/GFS/CFS) does not get more right than the MO.

The thing about the MO's LRFs is that they didn't actually get it wrong - when you assign probabilities to different scenarios the concept of wrongness doesn't really exist. But that is a another matter.

The point I'm making is that, whether or not this forecast verifies, it's just not possible to predict the weather that far ahead with anything like the degree of certainty or the level of detail that has been expressed.

That is plain fact, and that is why I said it was just a bit of fun, though I appreciate that I may have been unkind in that regard.

Overall the reasoning seems perfectly sound, I just wish it wouldn't be so sure of itself.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Timmead

[Guest]

(okay technically a white christmas in a few places last year, but not exactly widespread - we didn't even get a frost! - and the actual forecast, rightly, doesn't even mention Christmas. I guess that was a journalistic question?)

A large number of places in the UK did actually have a white Xmas last year but most populated places in southern England did not get a white Xmas.

A white Xmas was widespread across half of the UK....hardly just "a few places", although that depends how you define a white Xmas!!! :lol:

[Isolated Frost]

A large number of places in the UK did actually have a white Xmas last year but most populated places in southern England did not get a white Xmas.

A white Xmas was widespread across half of the UK....hardly just "a few places", although that depends how you define a white Xmas!!! :lol:

Yep, I had a nice dusting on the ground on christmas morning. Back on topic, good and likely forecast by NW, hopefully they are right again.

NUDGE NORTH WEST BLOCKING TO NORTH EAST OR ELSE...

[t_trump1]

Looks like a good forecast to me; a very interesting read. Like the look of below average temperatures in the south east. Hopefully we will get some snow from this cold although the lack of precipitation will probably become quite an issue after a relatively dry summer here in the south.

[johnholmes]

Sure,

I won't post and say what I think, after-all this isn't a forum is it?

Theres not only one outcome in a LRF, hence why a few people have a pop at doing them, some people don't agree of course, but your comment above is rather rude. TEITS etc will probably do a LRF soon as will many other members, like John Holmes for example, I was not disrespecting the netweather forecast at all, as I said there is credibility there, netweather holds some truely great forecasters, I don't have to agree with everything do I? Just like you didn't agree with me.

Regards

Lewis

I don't do seasonal forecasts Lewis, I normally don't go more than 3-4 weeks ahead.

[Timmead]

Looks like a good forecast to me; a very interesting read. Like the look of below average temperatures in the south east. Hopefully we will get some snow from this cold although the lack of precipitation will probably become quite an issue after a relatively dry summer here in the south.

Rainfall was actually above average in every one of the MO's regions for this summer - the south had about 105%

Source: http://www.metoffice...r/averages.html

Edited October 18, 2010 by Timmead

[andy_leics22]

Cool forecast, seems very reasonable, although as an avid astronomer and physicist I would like to know the reasoning behind the statement of "low solar activity" as this year has seen more than the past 2 years as we are now entering the period of "solar maximum" which will peak in 2012. Have you seen the latest Filament? It's larger than the distance Earth to Moon and beyond.

Other than that, it's a good forecast although it wasn't a dry summer for me, and other western parts, it was very wet day in and day out, so I expect a normal or above average for precipitation.

Just my two cents.

2012? Isn't that when the world ends?

[La Bise]

GP, if you got it right, I'll be a happy bunny, as a hiker and budding wildcamper, dry and cold is the holy winter grail for me...

Excellent point by Essan re media/MetO, just have a look at the Daily Mail take on GP's forecast actually...

[MR EXTREMES]

I was trying hard not to get involved in this discussion, but I am sure the guy who has spent no doubt many, many hours using all of his training and experience in meteorology to create this forecast would be quite dismayed to realise someone thinks that it was designed as a 'bit of fun'. GP's posts are amongst the most respected and widely read posts on this site, and he clearly knows his onions. Respect, please.

well said id not take no notice typical weather forum troll.

Dunno what Paul's been saying to the press, but they seem to have seen a differnt forecast to us

http://www.dailymail...wing-south.html

:lol:

2010 and 2011?! :o Bit bold predicting over 12 months ahead isn't it

(okay technically a white christmas in a few places last year, but not exactly widespread - we didn't even get a frost! - and the actual forecast, rightly, doesn't even mention Christmas. I guess that was a journalistic question?)

considering i won hundred quid last year on a white christmas lol no there was no white christmas:wallbash:

im getting annoyed now some silly pointless posts coming out just people throwing toys out of there pram because they wish for a repeat of last winter which is i might add 1 in 50 year event now most like 1 in 75 year event.

Rainfall was actually above average in every one of the MO's regions for this summer - the south had about 105%

Source: http://www.metoffice...r/averages.html

and was it no like heck was it its been dry for months and months.

[ZONE 51]

A very good forecast, thankyou! be great to get an easterly in the se here, really good chance of snow for our part (:

With the SE likely to get the lowest temps and frequent snow fall from the north sea its right to say it could be severe to SE standards in winter, if we get the right set up(which a good chance) then the Russian freezer hitting home.

[camiscool]

Pleased about that nimbilus where is your location in the south east?

[ZONE 51]

Pleased about that nimbilus where is your location in the south east?

North Surrey (not the downs)

[camiscool]

Ok, well I'm in west Kent so should be an interesting winter for us... :s

[ZONE 51]

Ok, well I'm in west Kent so should be an interesting winter for us... :s

Yes it does look like snow shrs/streamers for this quarter uk.

as we know slight changes might occur with the setup as we go into winter, the north sea is handy for us creating temp differences.

Ive read through all the posts, its incredible what can be said at times..arrrg...but everyones entitled to comment (: but mostly good posts.

[philglossop]

Yes it does look like snow shrs/streamers for this quarter uk.

as we know slight changes might occur with the setup as we go into winter, the north sea is handy for us creating temp differences.

Ive read through all the posts, its incredible what can be said at times..arrrg...but everyones entitled to comment (: but mostly good posts.

Interesting forecast, but as someone who works in the outdoors, I'll take dry and cold over wet and mild every time.

If the pressure does settle to the North West of the UK, low pressures could under cut and head up the English Channel- this generally leads to more snow for the South West compared to fronts coming in.

Having said that, the jet stream and the position of the High becomes critical.

As for any negative comments- lets just sit back and enjoy the ride!

[Methuselah]

Im not sure why you think its 'safe' to predict an average, dry winter over any other type? Whatever you forecast when its long range you are always 'sticking your neck out' as its by no means easy. Anyone can say 'it'll be wetter than average' or 'there will be heavy snowfalls', but unless you show your reasoning then its nothing but a guess.

Also, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 2005/06 were all recent winters drier than average following summers drier than average.

You can probably add 1975/76 to that list, too?

And, as others have already pointed-out, give credit where credit's due...

[thevalley]

If the forecast verifies then potentially what a great winter for the South East and East -Very selfish of me as we need the rain but a dry average to below average winter with frosty sunny days hopefully -perfect and surely it wont be bone dry so that any snow showers will be enhanced by the North Sea and the Thames and snow will last . Of course it could be Average cloudy and dry

[Don]

Thanks for the forecast GP, excellent work as usual.

As for the forecast itself it could be far far worse. I know many are concerned about the dryness expected, but I would take that over a mild and wet winter any day. However, saying that I wouldn't want a dry winter like 1991/92, which was dreadful with zero snow for many. I do think though that had this forecast been released two years ago, many people on here would have been very happy after the stinkers of 2006/7 and 2007/8 and the general mild dross we had become accustomed to over the last 20 years. However, due to the last two winters being more than half decent for coldies, the expectations have risen making the forecast look somewhat mediocre.

As always it will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few months.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Great Forecast G.P,

Sounds very realistic to me and to be honest I don't know why there are any disappointed posts, ... a cold December and early part of January with the possibility of some snow is great. I guess that some have higher expectations after the past 2 years, which others have already alluded to.

I've always found your forecasts well reasoned and honest..... frighteningly accurate as well.

Please keep up the great work and I look forward to your updates as and when they appear.

Y.S

[Jack Wales]

Thanks again GP for the forecast, it is detailed and interesting as usual. I appreciate and respect your confidence on the ‘very dry’ aspect of your forecast, especially at this range but being an outdoors sort of person, I will be happy if winter plays out as you expect.

My fear is that the HP cell could be displaced to the south by a strong jet, leaving us with wet and potentially stormy synoptics.

"Very likely outcome" Don't make me laugh.

Its nothing more than an educated guess.sure it might be close but then again it could be miles out.

With so many winter forecasts coming out now,why these companies don't just admit its an educated guess instead of using words like "will be" or "very likely" is beyond me.

Its just making themselves open to ridicule with their credibilty falling through the floor,if their forecasts turn out to be a long way out.

I love the irony of how you misspelled credibility! If you were a more established member of the forum, you would realise the amount of effort Stewart puts into his seasonal forecasts. Sounds to me like you should crawl back into your hole mole!

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO?

The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt.

The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork.

So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

What you fail to understand is that until very recently the Met Office used to distance themselves from LRF's. I'm not sure what GP's scientific/educational portfolio consists of but what I do know is that he has dedicated a huge amount of his time into researching the synoptics and dynamics which feed into his seasonal forecasts (not guesswork) and as such is held in the highest regards by former met office officials on this forum.

You're right when you say he is taking a big punt but he is doing this publicly so if anything he deserves credit for that.

Edited October 19, 2010 by Jack Wales