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Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds

 

Abstract

The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2 °C at 200-700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping, and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060613/abstract?utm_content=buffer6a55d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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All time record for Antarctic sea new record  today reported in Cryophere Today ,sea ice area 2,074 million sq km the previous record was 1,840 million sq km,http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky
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Keith,

It really is an amazing event, yet again this year. The chances are that we will have the annual daily maximum sea ice extent broken three years in a row. And the large-scale processes associated with the SH sea ice this year are quite different, in some regards, to the previous two years.

It's fascinating – and why I love science.

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There has been a discussion on Antarctic sea ice in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum that's well worth a read.

 

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,904.0.html

There"s no conspiracy theory ,but to much evidence is stacking up on data tampering just some of the data adjustments taking place to satisfy the politicians green tax adgenda  .http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/21/a-light-in-siberia/ when politics and scientist get together its never a good union,http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/28/skeptical-of-skeptics-is-steve-goddard-right/ http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/massive-temperature-adjustments-at-luling-texas/

Edited by keithlucky

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There"s no conspiracy theory ,but to much evidence is stacking up on data tampering just some of the data adjustments taking place to satisfy the politicians green tax adgenda  .http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/21/a-light-in-siberia/ when politics and scientist get together its never a good union,http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/28/skeptical-of-skeptics-is-steve-goddard-right/ http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/massive-temperature-adjustments-at-luling-texas/

 

I'm struggling to understand what this has to do with Antarctic ice discussion.

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Thanks for the link knocker. Nice discussions.

Here's some stats on the Antarctic sea ice anomaly so far this year:

-  Daily sea ice area reached a new record anomaly on the 26th June 2014 (1.9 million sq kms) and there are a few current readings in the top 10 ever recorded.-  Monthly area anomaly for June 2014 was second highest recorded (behind Dec 2007).-  Daily extent anomalies have a while to go to catch those recorded in Dec 2007.-  Monthly extent anomaly for April 2014 was the second highest on record (behind Jan 2008). 

The cryosphere is interesting and does its own thing!

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The cryosphere is interesting and does its own thing!

 

Very true Tasboy. I may have mentioned it before but I found the recent book, Climate change in the Polar regions By John Turner and Gareth J. Marshall very interesting and helpful.

Edited by knocker
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Antarctic smashes daily record sea ice gain by 400,000sq km Posted Image

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I'm struggling to understand what this has to do with Antarctic ice discussion.

 

I think the link to the other thread showed 'some' people are so desperate to 'prove' the increases fit with global warming they miss 'the facts'

 

This comment

 

"""reference that indicates that on average the Antarctic Sea Ice Area is going up by 0.2% per year, ""

 

Its going up by a factor 15 times more then that so where does 0.2% come from. I can only assume all Antarctica surface ice not just the sea ice ? We are also getting far more summer ice and more 2nd year ice that doesn't get a mention.

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David Rose and the Antarctic sea ice misrepresentation?

 

David Rose has an article in the Daily Mail about the increase in Antarctic sea ice. The implication is that the increase in Antarctic sea ice somehow compensates for the decrease in Arctic sea ice. Well this isn’t really correct as what David Rose is referring to is the increase is sea ice area, not volume. According to Holland et al. 2014, the Arctic sea ice is losing mass/volume 10 times faster than the Antarctic sea ice is gaining mass/volume. Also the impact on our albedo of decreased Arctic sea ice in the NH summer is very different to the impact of increased Antarctic sea ice in the SH winter.

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It must be the wrong sort of ice I expect.

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Why is global sea ice doing so well ?and how do you measure volume over a very large area,

 

Maybe if you started by looking at the types of measuring that goes on and the type of equipment that has been specifically developed for the job? Maybe look into the types of research the numerous organisations and universities, world wide, and what their remits are? Then begin working through the research papers and data that we get day in day out? ( most of it free access so once you are up to speed you can keep yourself up to date without resorting to second hand news?).

 

None of this is majik! it is all simple science but it might have taken a mind trained in the discipline to see just how to sort out the challenge such 'measurement' brings?

 

Myself I use what I know and data readily available but I also accept the findings from the major cryospheric agencies ( once I've cast a sceptical eye over it of course!). I am fortunate to have enjoyed an academic upbringing and so remain in contact with buddies from many of the disciplines looking into our changing planet ( from Atmospheric folk to oceanic folk to icy folk!), sadly none of them managed to catch the 'gravy train' and so remain average joes just doing a job of work that they trained long and hard for!

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More scaremongering from AGW

  • Claim was made by Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, when speaking to Harold Ambler at Talking About the Weather
  • Shift is caused by water melting from beneath the Antarctic ice shelves
  • Scientists claim it is then re-frozen back on surface, increasing sea ice
  • However Nasa warns that growing Antarctic sea ice is less significant a measure than declining Arctic sea ice when assessing climate change
  • Antarctica’s sea ice set a record this week, reaching 815,448 square miles (1,312,000 square km) of ice above its normal range

 

 

Seems KL doesn't want to look to the data to find out what is happening in the waters around Antarctica? Am I the only one who finds this odd? Surely when we see something " bucking the trend " our human instinct is to explore 'why' so we can learn more about that particular system? Am I wrong in thinking this? should I be calling folk names and jumping up and down saying 'Ner, ner! look at me , look at me!'? 

 

I would still like to see just how much of the ice around the continent is actual 'sea ice' ( born out of the waters there) and how much is the remnants of land grown ice? The changes in mass loss would suggest that a lot more ice is making it into the waters off Antarctica ( along with the melt waters) as we saw with the ship that became entombed in such glacial remnants earlier in the year.

 

I know we should not rise to the taunting but surely if folk are doing this antarctic sea ice dance then hadn't we better be clear on what is actual increase and what is the hallmark of disintegration?

 

Personally with the data we have been recieving the past decade about the incursion of warm bottom waters ( now impacting as far as Ross!!!) into the coastal areas and the mapping of the changes to the grounding line of the drain glaciers we have seen I have no problem with Mr Serreze's comments? We have seen a similar mechanism in action around Greenland. The worry must be the volume of the fresh water needed to freshen the surface to the point of allowing freeze at higher temps. We know the ice melt freshens the surface but the tonnage of melt needed to further flood the surface with fresh is mind boggling!

 

Sadly with global temps still rising and the ozone issues now recovering it cannot be long until we see a very visual collapse in sea ice levels around the continent. It is almost as if nature is laying a trap for the vocal minority who have pinned so much on the spectacle of this slow increase since the 80's?

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Seems KL doesn't want to look to the data to find out what is happening in the waters around Antarctica? Am I the only one who finds this odd? Surely when we see something " bucking the trend " our human instinct is to explore 'why' so we can learn more about that particular system? Am I wrong in thinking this? should I be calling folk names and jumping up and down saying 'Ner, ner! look at me , look at me!'? 

 

I would still like to see just how much of the ice around the continent is actual 'sea ice' ( born out of the waters there) and how much is the remnants of land grown ice? The changes in mass loss would suggest that a lot more ice is making it into the waters off Antarctica ( along with the melt waters) as we saw with the ship that became entombed in such glacial remnants earlier in the year.

 

I know we should not rise to the taunting but surely if folk are doing this antarctic sea ice dance then hadn't we better be clear on what is actual increase and what is the hallmark of disintegration?

 

Personally with the data we have been recieving the past decade about the incursion of warm bottom waters ( now impacting as far as Ross!!!) into the coastal areas and the mapping of the changes to the grounding line of the drain glaciers we have seen I have no problem with Mr Serreze's comments? We have seen a similar mechanism in action around Greenland. The worry must be the volume of the fresh water needed to freshen the surface to the point of allowing freeze at higher temps. We know the ice melt freshens the surface but the tonnage of melt needed to further flood the surface with fresh is mind boggling!

 

Sadly with global temps still rising and the ozone issues now recovering it cannot be long until we see a very visual collapse in sea ice levels around the continent. It is almost as if nature is laying a trap for the vocal minority who have pinned so much on the spectacle of this slow increase since the 80's?

You keep on saying global temperatures are rising but the general census is that world temperatures are at a standstill ,with USA temperatures have been falling over the last 10 yrs according to NOAA http://t.co/Y1M4sNic65 .

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Here you go folks;

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=global+temperature&rlz=1C1RNVG_enGB572GB572&espv=2&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=hIG6U5fKN46u7AazvoHYCQ&ved=0CB8QsAQ&biw=1280&bih=643

 

Save you the trouble of typing! Look at all the major organisations plots for global temp and then post me any 3 of the global organisations that monitor temps showing a 'pause' or flatline since 1990.

 

2014 is again set to post a top ten 'record warm year' if not a top 5 'record warm year' . If temps have been flat since 98' how can this be??? How can the past ten years be the warmest decade on our records if we have had " No Warming" ( surely it would be tied with the 90's???)?

 

EDIT: Hot off the ( australian) presses;

 

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/bad-news-for-sealevel-rises-as-quickening-antarctic-winds-point-to-faster-ice-melt-20140707-zsz3o.html

 

it appears that the increased winds had not been factored into the models and when it is then the promised melt happens sooner and faster? As I said , Nature is looking like She's showing the deniers up as the misguided folk that they are (IMHO). She has them drawing attention to southern Sea ice when it looks to be on the cusp of a rapid collapse due to the winds ozone/CO2 have whipped up around the continent. I did not realise that as well as increasing in strength they are also tightening around the continent? This will place more than the Peninsula outside the 'exclusion zone' that they create for global temps ( keeping all inside in 'splendid isolation' from global air temps)?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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You keep on saying global temperatures are rising but the general census is that world temperatures are at a standstill ,with USA temperatures have been falling over the last 10 yrs according to NOAA http://t.co/Y1M4sNic65 .

 

James Taylor is simply a proponent of the oil industry. He has no relevant qualifications, no relevant expertise and no relevant experience. He works for the Heartland Institute, which had close ties to big tobacco back in the day and liked to cast doubt on the links between smoking and cancer, but these days works for the more profitable oil industry, spreading propaganda and trying to cast, doubt of the human role in climate change, while attacking scientists and spreading conspiracy theories..

 

Just keep that in mind when reading James Taylor's articles.

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James Taylor is simply a proponent of the oil industry. He has no relevant qualifications, no relevant expertise and no relevant experience. He works for the Heartland Institute, which had close ties to big tobacco back in the day and liked to cast doubt on the links between smoking and cancer, but these days works for the more profitable oil industry, spreading propaganda and trying to cast, doubt of the human role in climate change, while attacking scientists and spreading conspiracy theories..

 

Just keep that in mind when reading James Taylor's articles.

 

And not only that the article links to Climate Depot run by Marc Morano who is a very nasty piece of work  Climate Depot is sponsored by CFACT, a conservative think tank that has received funding from Exxon Mobil and Chevron. CFACT dismisses the scientific consensus on climate change and maintains that "real world evidence" shows that "global warming claims are failing." To spread its message, CFACT organised the Copenhagen Climate Challenge -- a conference of climate contrarians -- to coincide with the UN climate conference in 2009.

 

Specifically the link was to an article by the potty peer on that site and the famous graph.

 

A little more on Morano. (I'm not kidding when I say he's a nasty piece of work)

 

http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/12/27/climate-change-misinformer-of-the-year-marc-mor/191878

Edited by knocker

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Well that is chilling Knocks! read through his quotes and then tell me which of our drive by deniers has used every single one of them at some time in their 'drive bys'? ( who'd have thunk it eh?)

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Changing Antarctic winds create new sea level threat

 

 
 

New research shows projected changes in the winds circling the Antarctic may accelerate global sea level rise significantly more than previously estimated.

Changes to Antarctic winds have already been linked to southern Australia’s drying climate but now it appears they may also have a profound impact on warming ocean temperatures under the ice shelves along the coastline of West and East Antarctic.

 

https://www.climatescience.org.au/content/751-changing-antarctic-winds-create-new-sea-level-threat

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Last post but I have to moan about this posting restriction in the hope that others might help to show the team that it is now time to ease the 'punishment'. up thread I used an Edit to link into the study that Knocks has just posted above as it is the only way at my disposal to bring such news to the group ( once my allotment has run out) . some days I start the day with only one post left until the evening if I have engaged in other threads the previous evening ( Arthur being one, Tour de france another... all areas where I have never received warnings or had posts removed) 

 

Why can I not 'free post' across the forum and just remain restricted here? Arctic melt Season and Antarctic re-freeze are both busy topics this time of year before we even get into the glut of papers that surface at the end of the academic year!!!!

 

If you feel this treatment has now long outlived its original purpose and you would feel as I do had you suffered similar then please ask your mod to look into the issue for me. I now have to wait until 21:23 to reply to anything as I'm out of 'edits' to slip replies in!!!!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Study reveals strong links between Antarctic climate, food web

 

A long-term study of the links between climate and marine life along the rapidly warming West Antarctic Peninsula reveals how changes in physical factors such as wind speed and sea-ice cover send ripples up the food chain, with impacts on everything from single-celled algae to penguins.

 

http://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/saba_wap.php

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Why can it be called natural variability down south but not up north ?

 

 

Comments such as "David Rose is either an ignorant fool" and some of the link he posted to support him actually contradicted him. e.g so the article is very poor..........

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50820/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

 

 

However interesting comment re ice volumes 

--------------

 

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1).â€I find this strange, to replace observations by model estimates, and to say that models successfully reproduses observations when there are no observations.And it is a simple explanation, isn`t it; that Antarctic has been cooled the last years?

------------------------
Edited by stewfox

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Would be nice to say tha stew but the observations show high temp anoms across the continent and increasing mass losses decade on decade. Those being the facts isn't it 'wise ' to look for the reason we see this odd behaviour in the ice ( and learn from what we find?)

 

As I've posted twice now the giga tonnage of daily losses from Greenland the past weeks have dwarfed that 'anomalous growth' in ice mass lost compared to total ice anom gained and that ice is lost to the cryosphere. Antarctic sea ice is an annual growth. 

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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