Antarctic Ice Discussion

[Midlands Ice Age]

Um, no it isn't.

 

Tasboy

 

Ignored unless you provide evidence or a link.

 

MIA

Edited April 4, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[stewfox]

Um, no it isn't.

 

If you dont agree with the satellite data can you provide a link/evidence to the contrary.

 

As at 2nd April 6,669,078 that's another  record for the time of year.

 

regards

 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

[Nouska]

If you dont agree with the satellite data can you provide a link/evidence to the contrary.

 

As at 2nd April 6,669,078 that's another  record for the time of year.

 

regards

 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

 

I don't know if you have looked at the link in Tas' signature, maybe he was providing that as evidence?

 

The daily record for April 2nd appears to have been set in 2008 - 6.796.

 

Irrespective of daily detail, can we beat the highest ever recorded (20th September 2014) - the figures for both years are a close match at the moment.

Edited April 4, 2015 by Nouska

[keithlucky]

If you dont agree with the satellite data can you provide a link/evidence to the contrary.

 

As at 2nd April 6,669,078 that's another  record for the time of year.

 

regards

 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

Sea ice ice grew rapidly during the month, as temperatures dived, adding 2.7 million sq km. At the end of March, extent was 1.2 million sq km above average, or 22% higher. As a result, global sea ice area, according to Cryosphere Today, finished the month slightly above the long term mean.

Edited April 4, 2015 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Sea ice ice grew rapidly during the month, as temperatures dived, adding 2.7 million sq km. At the end of March, extent was 1.2 million sq km above average, or 22% higher. As a result, global sea ice area, according to Cryosphere Today, finished the month slightly above the long term mean.

 

In need with a rapid rebound in the Antarctica sea ice  and a slow melt in the next month in the Arctic we would see global sea ice remain above the long term average for the foreseeable.

 

I acknowledge it is currently the 2nd highest ever recorded down in Antarctica not the highest.

[keithlucky]

In need with a rapid rebound in the Antarctica sea ice  and a slow melt in the next month in the Arctic we would see global sea ice remain above the long term average for the foreseeable.

 

I acknowledge it is currently the 2nd highest ever recorded down in Antarctica not the highest.

Interesting to see if rapid ice growth will effect South America winter already reports of early snow fall across Argentina also arguments betweenGlaciologists are happening why Perito Moreno Glacier is growing could it be that Antarctic sea ice is having a cooling effect in South America?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perito_Moreno_Glacier

Edited April 4, 2015 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Interesting to see if rapid ice growth will effect South America winter already reports of early snow fall across Argentina also arguments betweenGlaciologists are happening why Perito Moreno Glacier is growing could it be that Antarctic sea ice is having a cooling effect in South America?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perito_Moreno_Glacier

The latest inventory of the SPI shows that 9 of the 48 outlet glaciers  maintained relatively stable frontal positions and small area change between 1986 and 2000. Four of these  9 glaciers had also been retreating between 1944 and 1986. One of the relatively stable glaciers is Moreno, which is well known for it's stable frontal position and frequent ice damming. Of the rest 37 glaciers showed major retreats and two, Pio X1 and HPS19, advanced.

 

Regarding climate there is a general warming trend observed south of 45S in Patagonia of 1.3 to 20.0C per century. Warming also prevailed east of the SPI with quite a strong trend of 1.4C observed between 1938 and 1988 at Rio Gallegos.

 

Source

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Springer, 2014.

Edited April 4, 2015 by knocker

[Woollymummy]

Is there any record of changes in glacier thickness rather than total area or front positions, and is it possible that they are becoming much thinner due to warming, causing the sea ice to grow? Is the sea ice this decade made of more glacial runoff than frozen ocean, or is it always constant, and how do you know which is which? I have no data to add, sorry, just questions.

[knocker]

Is there any record of changes in glacier thickness rather than total area or front positions, and is it possible that they are becoming much thinner due to warming, causing the sea ice to grow? Is the sea ice this decade made of more glacial runoff than frozen ocean, or is it always constant, and how do you know which is which? I have no data to add, sorry, just questions.

 

Woolly

Yes Global Land Ice Measurements includes glacier thickness. For example in the Southern Patagonian Icefield, mentioned above, the majority of glaciers are retreating and thinning. This applies,(the measuring) to all global land ice. But none of this has anything to do with sea ice.

 

Regarding Antarctic sea ice the one thing that is relevant is the melting of the Antarctic glaciers. There is a school of thought that the melting of said glaciers will decrease the salinity and thus facilitate the formation of sea ice but I don't think the majority are running with that idea.

 

A useful brief summary of Antarctic sea ice, ice shelves and ice sheet is the link I posted above.

 

http://glaciology.weebly.com/articles.html

 

I should add that glacier dynamics is a very complicated subject and way above my pay grade.

Edited April 4, 2015 by knocker

[stewfox]

 

 

Regarding climate there is a general warming trend observed south of 45S in Patagonia of 1.3 to 20.0C per century. Warming also prevailed east of the SPI with quite a strong trend of 1.4C observed between 1938 and 1988 at Rio Gallegos.

 

Source

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Springer, 2014.

 

20c per century cant see that mentioned 

[keithlucky]

The latest inventory of the SPI shows that 9 of the 48 outlet glaciers  maintained relatively stable frontal positions and small area change between 1986 and 2000. Four of these  9 glaciers had also been retreating between 1944 and 1986. One of the relatively stable glaciers is Moreno, which is well known for it's stable frontal position and frequent ice damming. Of the rest 37 glaciers showed major retreats and two, Pio X1 and HPS19, advanced.

 

Regarding climate there is a general warming trend observed south of 45S in Patagonia of 1.3 to 20.0C per century. Warming also prevailed east of the SPI with quite a strong trend of 1.4C observed between 1938 and 1988 at Rio Gallegos.

 

Source

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Springer, 2014.

Not according to NASA in 2005 they said a cooling trend  then they change the report lol

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003100/a003188/

Edited April 4, 2015 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Not according to NASA in 2005  then they change the report http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003100/a003188/

 

And this has got what to do with my post that you quoted?

[Tasboy]

If you dont agree with the satellite data can you provide a link/evidence to the contrary.

 

As at 2nd April 6,669,078 that's another  record for the time of year.

 

regards

 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

Again, no it isn't. The satellite data are fine - as far as I know. You're just reading the graph wrong.

[keithlucky]

Again, no it isn't. The satellite data are fine - as far as I know. You're just reading the graph wrong.

2nd April another daily record

[Devonian]

2nd April another daily record

No it isn't. Download the data and look...

 

Edit: this is the data (CSV file a little way down the page).

Edited April 5, 2015 by Devonian

[stewfox]

No it isn't. Download the data and look...

 

Again, no it isn't. The satellite data are fine - as far as I know. You're just reading the graph wrong.

 

Could folk please post a link to support your claims as previously requested otherwise ends up like a pantomime 'oh yes it ' ...oh no it isn't

 

I am quoting from the spreadsheet (excel) from this reputable source.I conceded 2008 was higher for 2/4 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

Edited April 5, 2015 by stewfox

[Devonian]

Could folk please post a link to support your claims as previously requested otherwise ends up like a pantomime 'oh yes it ' ...oh no it isn't

 

I am quoting from the spreadsheet (excel) from this reputable source.I conceded 2007 was higher for 2/4 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

2008 actually? But that is indeed my source.

So, not a record then...

Edited April 5, 2015 by Devonian

[stewfox]

2008 actually? But that is indeed my source.

So, not a record then...

 

Your correct , I have a feeling we will smash the global sea ice records this year

[keithlucky]

No it isn't. Download the data and look...

 

Edit: this is the data (CSV file a little way down the page).

Antarctica set a daily record for day 91. The old record was from 2014 and was broken by only 12,000 sq km.

This would be the 21st Daily Record for 2015.

[Devonian]

Antarctica set a daily record for day 91. The old record was from 2014 and was broken by only 12,000 sq km.

This would be the 21st Daily Record for 2015.

No Keith it did not. Again, look at the data in the link provided.

[Nouska]

The remainder of April sees most of the highest daily figures being achieved in 2014 - all of the daily records for May are set in 2014.

 

My ancient system cannot open the link up page so I'll show both months as a screen shot for quick reference.

 

April    May  

 

 

 

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Is KL aware that he is busy setting himself up for a fall or does he not expect anything other than Antarctic Sea ice growth for the rest of his natural?

 

All of the models show a rapid decline in sea ice in a similar fashion to what we saw the Arctic Sea ice do in the noughties and I see no reason to doubt this?

 

The forcings show no sign of abating their increases so both ocean and air temps will continue to rise, even a rapid collapse of the remaining major ice shelfs ( and the increase in land ice drainage the loss of these 'buttresses'  will facilitate ) will not cope with the increase in warm water ingress ( I've said before that 'air temps' will not be the thing that eats the ice sheet but warm ocean waters and increased transport of land ice to the glacial outlets) and so we will see a similar evolution to that currently occurring in Greenland ( have you seen the retreat that jakobshavn put on since jan???) apart from the huge ocean channels, currently joining west and east Antarctica by their infill ice, that will rapidly de-glaciate once the 'buttresses' that P.I.G./Thwaites and Ross provide to them and 'float off' into the Southern Oceans.

 

With Ozone on the mend and positive naturals ruling the roost I sense change on the way but do not foresee folk posting hourly updates of the event?

[4wd]

 

 

All of the models show a rapid decline in sea ice in a similar fashion to what we saw the Arctic Sea ice do in the noughties and I see no reason to doubt this?

 

How about because data is now showing record breaking extent.

 

 

 I sense change on the way

     

 

[Tasboy]

Alarmingly, in 2015 the Antarctic sea-ice extent grew only 0.026 million square kms between the 4^th and 5^th April. That is the third lowest growth in extent ever recorded between those dates (behind 2009 and 1988).

 

See http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/gsfc_sh_extent_anom.html.

[stewfox]

Alarmingly, in 2015 the Antarctic sea-ice extent grew only 0.026 million square kms between the 4^th and 5^th April. That is the third lowest growth in extent ever recorded between those dates (behind 2009 and 1988).

 

See http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/gsfc_sh_extent_anom.html.

 

I assume that is going into the next IPCC report ?