Antarctic Ice Discussion

[barrel1234]

Those temperature abnormalities are amazing running all the way up to South Africa.

 

"""In the Antarctic, the currents and winds tend to flow without interruption around the continent in a west-to-east direction, acting like a barricade to warmer air and water to the north!""""

 

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html

 

I wonder what the abnormalities were like last 20 years in September.

 

I had a quick flick back through the years and while not a comprehensive check by any means it does appear to be easier to find more periods of below average sst's around the Antarctic than above average.

 

  Although as I said its just a quick random check and not done scientifically but it seems to stand out to me as having cooler than average sst's over the years from 1997

 

  Here is a slightly cherry picked one from 2003 when almost all the globes sst is above average except from the area around the Antarctic.   There are plenty more like this to cherry pick from....... and there seems rather less to cherry pick from if looking to find warm sst anomalies.

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2003/anomnight.9.19.2003.gif

 

    I'm aware that different companies that monitor sst can and do come up with different  anomalies.... I have always used NOAA simply because its the one I started randomly looking at a number of years ago just for browsing interest so its just more familiar to me. to me.

[knocker]

A paper from 2006 but may be of interest.

 

Antarctic Temperature and Sea Ice Trends over the Last Century

 

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

[knocker]

Quoting from the paper.

 

Liu, et al (2004) report that total Antarctic sea ice (the area covered by at least 15% iceconcentration) has increased significantly since 1979, by about 13,295 sq. km. per year.Regionally, there has been a large increase in the central Pacific sector and a smaller decrease in the Weddell Sea.Although ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation appear toinfluence sea ice trends, they cannot explain them. There may be less understood large-scale processes at work†influencing sea ice.

 

 

Large-scale processes at work? Ozone hole, Polar Vortex and winds.Surely not it's simple physics.

[4wd]

So, reduced Arctic Ice must be somehow linked to warming, increased Antarctic Ice must be somehow not caused by it being colder. 

[knocker]

The short answer, no. But you are getting there.

Edited September 20, 2013 by knocker

[keithlucky]

Another all time record  today 19.51394 million sq km

[knocker]

Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature. In contrast to Arctic sea ice, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded¹, with record extent² in 2010. This ice expansion has previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that induce atmospheric cooling³. Here we show that accelerated basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed significantly to sea-ice expansion. Specifically, we present observations indicating that melt water from Antarctica’s ice shelves accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the ice shelves. Simulating these processes in a coupled climate model we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice-shelf melt indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter. This powerful negative feedback counteracts Southern Hemispheric atmospheric warming. Although changes in atmospheric dynamics most likely govern regional sea-ice trends⁴, our analyses indicate that the overall sea-ice trend is dominated by increased ice-shelf melt. We suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around Antarctica could offset projected snowfall increases in Antarctica, with implications for estimates of future sea-level rise.

 

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/full/ngeo1767.html

[minus 9]

A theory not fact. Just another excuse from the warmest lobby.

[Polar Maritime]

A theory not fact. Just another excuse from the warmest lobby.

 

 Science... Which is forever expanding our knowledge. 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

A theory not fact. Just another excuse from the warmest lobby.

A theory that tries to explain what's observed; and has nothing whatever to do with the 'warmest [sic] lobby'...IMO, attempting to explain Antarctica's increasing sea-ice, is sceptical science at its very best... 

[stewfox]

Antarctica Sea Ice Extent took an unexpected 50,000 sq km jump yesterday. It was the 3rd highest extent of all-time

 

 

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/28/antarctica-sea-ice-extent-3rd-highest-of-all-time-on-sept-27-2013/

[stewfox]

Antarctic Sea Ice Doesn’t Want To Start Melting

 

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/antarctic-sea-ice-doesnt-want-to-start-melting/

 

Background

 

Correlation is Positive when the values increase together, and; Correlation is Negative when one value decreases as the other increases

 

We have the Artic and Antarctica both in positive growth

 

If where A, B, C, x, y, and z are Antarctica  ice positive integers with x, y, z > 2, then A, B, and C have a common prime factor of Artic ice positive integers.

 

I formulated this conjecture in 2008 while investigating  generalisations of Fermat's last theorem.  It has been claimed that the same conjecture was independently formulated by others and been referred to as the Tijdeman-Zagier conjecture.This means in laymen's terms all things being equal

 

Antarctica and Artic ice sheets should be joined by end March 2014

Edited October 1, 2013 by stewfox

[stewfox]

On a clear day they see you can see the growing Antarctica ice sheet from the beaches of Argentina.

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png 

Not a maximum yet but more records being brokenhttp://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png2013 IPCC report suggest growth due seagulls causing disturbances in wind patterns ???www.ipcc.com.uk

 

Beach shot from coast of Argentina

Edited October 4, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

What an absolute mess.

 

US Antarctic research season is in jeopardy

http://www.nature.com/news/us-antarctic-research-season-is-in-jeopardy-1.13889

[Fergus Brown]

Morning all.

 

Antarctic Sea ice is a bit of a red herring. For the Antarctic, the key metric is the land ice, or the mass balance thereof.

 

However, for those of you who are obviously enjoying the discussion, here is an abstract for a paper which is scheduled for publication but not yet finalised. The authors provide an explanation for the phenomenon under discussion:

 

Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Pasteur, 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Abstract. The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

Citation: Goosse, H. and Zunz, V.: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback, The Cryosphere Discuss., 7, 4585-4632, doi:10.5194/tcd-7-4585-2013, 2013.

 

Hope this helps

[stewfox]

Morning all.

 

Antarctic Sea ice is a bit of a red herring. For the Antarctic, the key metric is the land ice, or the mass balance thereof.

 

However, for those of you who are obviously enjoying the discussion, here is an abstract for a paper which is scheduled for publication but not yet finalised. The authors provide an explanation for the phenomenon under discussion:

 

Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback

H. Goosse and V. Zunz

Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Pasteur, 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Abstract. The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

Citation: Goosse, H. and Zunz, V.: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback, The Cryosphere Discuss., 7, 4585-4632, doi:10.5194/tcd-7-4585-2013, 2013.

 

Hope this helps

 

The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice maybe a cause for increasing extent.

 

Good stuff as we see increasing Artic sea ice variability  (min to max spread getting wider), we are eventually likely to see a rebound  

[knocker]

Giant channels discovered beneath Antarctic ice shelf

 

Scientists have discovered huge ice channels beneath a floating ice shelf in Antarctica. At 250 metres high, the channels are almost as tall as the Eiffel tower and stretch hundreds of kilometres along the ice shelf. The channels are likely to influence the stability of the ice shelf and their discovery will help researchers understand how the ice will respond to changing environmental conditions.Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-10-giant-channels-beneath-antarctic-ice.html#jCp

Edited October 6, 2013 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

US Cancels entire Antarctic Field Season

McMurdo Station, the largest base established on the continent of Antarctica. Can hold up to 1258 residents, many of whom perform or support scientific research on the continent. The United States government, through the National Science Foundation, maintains 3 bases on Antarctica: McMurdo, Amundsen-Scott and Palmer, which house and support the work of hundreds of scientists who come to the continent and thousands of others around the world every year.

That is, they did so until now.

As a consequence of the U.S. Government shutdown, the National Science Foundation has not received any funds to continue the operation of these facilities this year. As a consequence, on October 8, orders were given to the contractors who operate the facilities to pack up and bring everything home.

There is enough money to maintain operations through next week, but facilities in Antarctica can’t be evacuated easily, so the shutdown has to commence right now. A “skeleton crew†typically mans the stations for maintenance and security purposes during the Antarctic winter and the stations will be left with those limited personnel after they are shut down.

The timing of this shutdown simply could not be worse for science. The field season in Antarctica only lasts a few months every year during the summer; during the long, Antarctic winter conditions are too harsh to allow much work. Scientists who want to work on the continent therefore have spent in most cases years planning and preparing their expeditions to get in during the narrow window around October when they can arrive, travel to the sites they wish to visit, and return before the beginning of winter.

The government shutdown is happening right when the field season should be starting. The equipment and supplies for the people traveling to Antarctica this year have already been purchased. Contracts to get there have already been paid. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent preparing for scientific research on Antarctica that has now been canceled. Unless something changes in the next few hours, much of that money will not be coming back or salvageable next year, it will be completely wasted.

Worse, this shutdown will literally devastate the life’s work of some scientists.

There are many types of science done on Antarctica every year. Atmospheric scientists monitor the air currents and the state of the ozone, geoscientists monitor the ice caps and sample the unique rocks on the continent, oceanic scientists investigate the waters around the continent, and biologists monitor the life that exists there. Teams from the Smithsonian also travel to select locations on Antarctica collecting meteorites from the ice caps, producing samples that have revolutionized our understanding of the solar system.

Many of these projects, such as monitoring the populations of organisms that inhabit the continent or tracking the movement of the ice sheets, have continuous data going back decades. Millions of dollars have been spent over the years creating those data sets. Those projects will lose a full year of data, and in some cases, if there is a 2014 field season, the research may essentially be starting from scratch.

NASA runs a program known as Icebridge every year which has produced fascinating data on the health of the ice sheets and the type of land that lies underneath; that project is likely dying for the year as well.

This shuttering doesn’t just impact American scientists either. Scientists from around the world use U.S. resources such as these stations and the U.S.’s transport capabilities to reach the continent. The shutdown of these bases will cost money and jobs worldwide. Thousands of scientists will not be able to do their jobs. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of students today are scrambling trying to figure out how to get the data they need to graduate while hoping their entire research careers won’t be ruined.

If funding is restored soon operations at the bases will be restarted and it is possible some projects could be saved, but it will take time to get the bases re-staffed and to bring supplies to the facilities necessary for the start of field work. At this point, every hour is important in terms of saving this year's science season.

Press reports:
http://www.livescience.com/40274-shutdown-cancels-antarctic-research.html
http://blogs.nature.com/news/2013/10/united-states-suspends-antarctic-research-season.html

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sets 3rd alltime record when USA on government shutdown http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/antarctica-set-a-third-all-time-record-while-government-was-shutdown/

[mikeworst]

NSIDC chart updated,  just "wow" http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC chart updated,  just "wow" http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

 

I think the CT graph illustrates the "wow" factor even more!

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[stewfox]

I think the CT graph illustrates the "wow" factor even more!

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Wow in need of course its not in the papers 

 

-------------------

Antarctic sea ice is mostly located outside the Antarctic Circle (Figure 1) and should be the first to melt due to global warming theory. Yet Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and expanding towards the equator contradicting all the models.

=============

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/why-antarctic-sea-ice-is-the-better-climate-change-indicator/

 

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png

 

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png

 

 

Global sea ice above the long term average at the above.

 

21st Daily record in a row 75th daily record this year , wow wow wow

 

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/10/19/21st-daily-record-in-a-row-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-and-75th-in-total/

Edited October 19, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wow in need of course its not in the papers 

 

-------------------

Antarctic sea ice is mostly located outside the Antarctic Circle (Figure 1) and should be the first to melt due to global warming theory. Yet Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and expanding towards the equator contradicting all the models.

=============

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/why-antarctic-sea-ice-is-the-better-climate-change-indicator/

 

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png

 

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png

 

 

Global sea ice above the long term average at the above.

 

While I agree that this should be getting more attention, that WUWT link really is a steaming pile. I hope you can see through that nonsense!

[joggs]

Agreed,it should have a mention in the news for the public to view,but do the pro warming scientists and governments with their green taxes want the joe public to view them?.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Agreed,it should have a mention in the news for the public to view,but do the pro warming scientists and governments with their green taxes want the joe public to view them?.

 

if it wasn't for the "pro warming scientists", none of us would even know about it. The media will do whatever the media will do, which is usually getting things wrong!