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damianslaw

October Cet

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Just over a week to go till October, so it seems an apt time to start this thread.

Appreciate if someone can post the 1961-90 and 1971-00 CET average values.

Use this thread to place your projections. I will reserve mine for a few more days.

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Here are the October Averages:

1961-1990 CET Average - 10.6°C

1971-2000 CET Average - 10.4°C

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To add to the above...

The last 10 years have been 11.17C

Coldest on record is 1740 at just 5.3C and the highest is 2001 at 13.3C

I'll go with an early 9.3C.

Edit: snap!

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Difficult, i see a lot of blocking to the east and a generally -AO/NAO, however i feer that the block may be just too far east to prevent some warm periods as low pressure pushes against the high.

11.1C, 0.7C above average.

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10.7c for me. It's a difficult choice, given that we have a La Nina going on at the moment (potential for an Atlantic october). However, given the total lack of extra-tropical systems we've had from this season so far, with a set up that should have brought a lot of them to our shores, i can see the potential for a more settled and cooler October. Hence my compromise with a figure slightly above average assuming we have a mix of the two.

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This October i see is in two halfs, the first being that of Atlantic ,mild wet and maybe very windy, the second half colder with frosts,fog. this affecting north and south uk in general.

i would say 11.0C.

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Right Hello Guys,

Ive been following the forum closely recently, due to other commitments over the past year or so my posts have been limited.

However i thought id wrack my brains and try and take a stab at what October may hold for us. Ive been looking over the models and really there is only one word that can describe them atm and that is a MESS!! I think the big thing that is causing alot of problems for them atm is the strength of the proposed Scandi High that is meant to assert itself over the Coming Week. The GFS wants it to develop into this massive monster, whereas the ECM purely wants to bring in the atlantic lows... which one will win? Well the global Ensembles yesterday were tending towards the ECM however they do seem to have backtracked towards a more GFS way of thinking over the last run.

"so who will be right?"... well thats a very tricky question. There is so many conflicting views atm. However i do feel we are heading out of a Prolonged Negative NAO spell. After reviewing the last 50 years worth of NAO (average) Charts the 2009-2010 negative spell looks to be a decent contender for the longest negative NAO spell in the last 50 years. Which leads me to think we are about to exit such spell and head to a positive NAO in time for winter... However Jumping back to October, it does look like a settled first few days may be in prospect (inline with GFS) however one cant ignore the lows sitting in the atlantic and i believe the high will backtrack and allow the low pressure systems to infiltrate from the west, as projected by the global ensembles, within the first week. The jetstream forecast is also portraying some conflicting views with it losing much of its strength before it reaches us spreading further doubt about the High pressures back track...

SST's are average around the UK however they are high around Greenland which is why i am thinking there is a likelyhood of a switch back to a positive NAO as low pressure systems start to build more actively there and also the dwindling size of the greenland high....

So im in favour 75% of an above average October accounting for all the information above... If we do head into a positive NAO phase i would prefer it now because most Positive pahses tend to last 3 monthsish which would allow a colder end to winter... So taking everything that ive said into consideration i think a Bet of 11.2 would be quiet reasonable considering the unsettled, westerly dominated month i am prediciting.

Ofcourse i wouldnt mind month nature proving me wrong and throwing in an early snowfall or two!

Regards,

SNOW-MAN2006

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I think that, with the exact orientation of the upcoming block being uncertain, I'll hold off until later...

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For my location the ave is 5.6c..im going for 5.9c..for the UK im going for all the nines..9.9c please

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Right Hello Guys,

Ive been following the forum closely recently, due to other commitments over the past year or so my posts have been limited.

However i thought id wrack my brains and try and take a stab at what October may hold for us. Ive been looking over the models and really there is only one word that can describe them atm and that is a MESS!! I think the big thing that is causing alot of problems for them atm is the strength of the proposed Scandi High that is meant to assert itself over the Coming Week. The GFS wants it to develop into this massive monster, whereas the ECM purely wants to bring in the atlantic lows... which one will win? Well the global Ensembles yesterday were tending towards the ECM however they do seem to have backtracked towards a more GFS way of thinking over the last run.

"so who will be right?"... well thats a very tricky question. There is so many conflicting views atm. However i do feel we are heading out of a Prolonged Negative NAO spell. After reviewing the last 50 years worth of NAO (average) Charts the 2009-2010 negative spell looks to be a decent contender for the longest negative NAO spell in the last 50 years. Which leads me to think we are about to exit such spell and head to a positive NAO in time for winter... However Jumping back to October, it does look like a settled first few days may be in prospect (inline with GFS) however one cant ignore the lows sitting in the atlantic and i believe the high will backtrack and allow the low pressure systems to infiltrate from the west, as projected by the global ensembles, within the first week. The jetstream forecast is also portraying some conflicting views with it losing much of its strength before it reaches us spreading further doubt about the High pressures back track...

SST's are average around the UK however they are high around Greenland which is why i am thinking there is a likelyhood of a switch back to a positive NAO as low pressure systems start to build more actively there and also the dwindling size of the greenland high....

So im in favour 75% of an above average October accounting for all the information above... If we do head into a positive NAO phase i would prefer it now because most Positive pahses tend to last 3 monthsish which would allow a colder end to winter... So taking everything that ive said into consideration i think a Bet of 11.2 would be quiet reasonable considering the unsettled, westerly dominated month i am prediciting.

Ofcourse i wouldnt mind month nature proving me wrong and throwing in an early snowfall or two!

Regards,

SNOW-MAN2006

you only have to look at gfs 12z in fi and see all the blocking to the east and the low pressures all gathered around greenland to see that a positive nao could be short lived. with blocking still there, theres a good chance it will be short positive nao.

there charts say otherwise

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz200Mon.gif

mid atlantic blocking for october keeping us cool and the end of autumn start of winter, couldnt ask for anything less.

gfs fi should be taken with a pinch of salt as it has been showing blocking, autumnal weather, the works really. i do think we will see more low pressure around greenland, but i doubt it will last or be a massive polar vortex. interesting if it is correct, then it would prbably mean a very autumnal october, total opposite to what lrfs have been predicitng, having said that there is signs of scandi high too.

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you only have to look at gfs 12z in fi and see all the blocking to the east and the low pressures all gathered around greenland to see that a positive nao could be short lived. with blocking still there, theres a good chance it will be short positive nao.

there charts say otherwise

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz200Mon.gif

mid atlantic blocking for october keeping us cool and the end of autumn start of winter, couldnt ask for anything less.

gfs fi should be taken with a pinch of salt as it has been showing blocking, autumnal weather, the works really. i do think we will see more low pressure around greenland, but i doubt it will last or be a massive polar vortex. interesting if it is correct, then it would prbably mean a very autumnal october, total opposite to what lrfs have been predicitng, having said that there is signs of scandi high too.

Hi Snowlover,

Haha the good old CFS Charts, what a total utter waste of time those charts seem to be, choping and changing more than GFS!

My post was a comparison betweent the GFS projection and the ECM projection... The gfs was bringing a more high pressure oriented theme, and easterlys, whereas the ECM was making the high alot less strong and taking it well into EuroRussia and low pressure making in roads. The ensembles showing a middle ground between the two options. My comparison was purely to try and identify what the first week of october may hold and i think the middle ground option is a safe bet... and i am well aware that Fi is a danger zone however the ECM and GFS are showing similar projections up until the strength of this high comes into question.

Other points i made where trends. We have been in a very prolonged negative phase... close to record breaking over the last 50 years, and i fear that we cant sustain such a stint much longer, ill be happy for mother nature to prove us wrong, but i cant make the weather do what i want, i am just stating the facts with regards to a Positive phase (lasting on average 4 months) is overdue!

And "all those low pressure around greenland" is why i am scared we will see a return to a positive stage as a positive NAO is below average pressure heights over greenland and above average pressure heights over the azores and the especially warm sst's around greenland at the moment do nothing to promote the growth of high pressure.

Hope this has helped explain my post further :lol:

Regards,

SNOW-MAN2006

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9.8c for me. Weak gulf stream and La Nina and low solar activity with blocking in the atlantic. Cooling down dramaticaly. Winter is expected to make an early appearence with current signs. So could see snow end of the month start of november. Earliest significant snowfall in my 17oed years on this planet was I think 15th November a few years back. I can remember it was so heavy we couldn't leave the house. Was a nice early treat that year especially for down here.

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Hi Snowlover,

Haha the good old CFS Charts, what a total utter waste of time those charts seem to be, choping and changing more than GFS!

My post was a comparison betweent the GFS projection and the ECM projection... The gfs was bringing a more high pressure oriented theme, and easterlys, whereas the ECM was making the high alot less strong and taking it well into EuroRussia and low pressure making in roads. The ensembles showing a middle ground between the two options. My comparison was purely to try and identify what the first week of october may hold and i think the middle ground option is a safe bet... and i am well aware that Fi is a danger zone however the ECM and GFS are showing similar projections up until the strength of this high comes into question.

Other points i made where trends. We have been in a very prolonged negative phase... close to record breaking over the last 50 years, and i fear that we cant sustain such a stint much longer, ill be happy for mother nature to prove us wrong, but i cant make the weather do what i want, i am just stating the facts with regards to a Positive phase (lasting on average 4 months) is overdue!

And "all those low pressure around greenland" is why i am scared we will see a return to a positive stage as a positive NAO is below average pressure heights over greenland and above average pressure heights over the azores and the especially warm sst's around greenland at the moment do nothing to promote the growth of high pressure.

Hope this has helped explain my post further :shok:

Regards,

SNOW-MAN2006

the cfs temps chart change mostly. the blocking charts i post are very consistent i have been viewing them for several months each day. note gavin on weather outlook who is quite well known has mentioned these charts are quite good.

the gfs changes more.

if you knew about the cfs chopping and changing please tell me how, as they have very rarely showing any positive anomaies over greenland for winter, apart form february. oct,nov,dec and jan have been extremely consistent.

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8.9C: Adam Jones 416

9.3C: Na Damanta Sam

9.8C: Nu Design

9.8C: Snowstorm 1

9.8C: Wales 123098

9.9C: Cheeky_Monkey

10.0C: Mullender 83

10.1C: Koppite

10.7C: Paranoid

10.8C: Sunlover

11.0C: Nimbilus

11.1C: Summer Blizzard

11.2C: Snow-Man 2006

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the cfs temps chart change mostly. the blocking charts i post are very consistent i have been viewing them for several months each day. note gavin on weather outlook who is quite well known has mentioned these charts are quite good.

the gfs changes more.

if you knew about the cfs chopping and changing please tell me how, as they have very rarely showing any positive anomaies over greenland for winter, apart form february. oct,nov,dec and jan have been extremely consistent.

The CFS charts are avaliable on net weather extra and they are always changing on a day to day basis.

SM06

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The CFS charts are avaliable on net weather extra and they are always changing on a day to day basis.

SM06

I don't think anyone should waste their time looking at raw CFS charts, but the monthly mean above/below average forecast maps do have some degree of validity, though I still wouldn't have much confidence in them either.

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I don't think anyone should waste their time looking at raw CFS charts, but the monthly mean above/below average forecast maps do have some degree of validity, though I still wouldn't have much confidence in them either.

The CFS long range is about as much use as the METO's Long Range Forecasts! :shok:

SM06

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