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Somerset Squall

Typhoon Malakas

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The thirteenth tropical depression of the season has formed, a few hundred miles east-northeast of Guam. Convection has persisted around the developing LLC, and intensity is 30kts. 13W is being steered around a ridge to the north. The depression is expected to move northwestwards, then northwards, then northeastwards as it travels around the western periphery of the ridge. With favourable conditions ahead, 13W is expected to become a typhoon before becoming extratropical in about 5 days time as the system traverses colder water.

The system is not of threat to land, apart from the islands of Iwo To and Chici Jima, who need to prepare for a typhoon landfall or graze.

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13W has strengthened to 35kts. The storm has a large amount of centralised convection and improved banding from earlier. Shear is set to remain low, waters warm and outflow is expected to improve greatly according to JTWC which have prompted them to forecast rapid strengthening beginning in around 36hrs. The islands above need to be wary, we could see a cat 3/4 here the vicinity.

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Thanks Cookie :yahoo:

Tropical Depression 13W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Malakas, and intensity has risen to 40kts. The storm has some pretty good central convection and well defined banding in the southwest quadrant. Shear is low, waters are warm, and outflow is good- so strengthening appears likely. Just how fast Malakas will strengthen is open to question, but I think this system could easily reach cat 3 on the SS scale. Track forecast remains basically the same, with Malakas rounding the ridge currently to the northeast of the system, eventually accelerating northeastwards and transitioning into a strong extratropical storm once it reaches it's peak tropically.

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Malakas struggled over the last 18hrs as an upper level low parked itself close to the north and cut off poleward outflow. However, this ULL has now moved off to the northeast, bringing a more favourable outflow pattern and allowing Malakas to strengthen to 50kts. There is still a really good amount of convection associated with the storm and also good banding features which is a good base for further intensification. Track forecast is largely the same as before.

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Malakas has intensified overnight and has become a cat 1 typhoon with intensity climbing to 65kts. Strong banding continues to flank the LLC, but the banding type eye is currently cloud obscured. Nevertheless, Malakas should continue to strengthen as poleward outflow continues to improve as the upper level low to the north pulls away. With shear remaining low and water temps hovering around 30C, Malakas could still become a cat 3 while passing over or near the islands of Iwo To and Chici Jima.

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Malakas has intensified further and intensity has increased to 75kts. The storm has contracted and the inner core has become more intense with the eye now emerging within the CDO. Malakas is now moving northwards as it continues to round the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Malakas should intensify some more as waters remain warm for the next 48hrs, and shear remains low. Thereafter, Malakas will swing north-northeastwards and begin extratropical transition over decreasing sea temperatures.

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Malakas has accelerated to the north, at a track speed of 23kts, which is much above average. Intensity has increased to 90kts, making Malakas a cat 2. With the current forward speed, Malakas will be over cooler water in 12hrs time which should initiate extratropical transition. Malakas is likely to become a potent extratropical low whilst moving northeastwards into the open Pacific. Fortunately, for Iwo To and Chici Jima, Malakas' fast speed means that the severest weather is passing quite quickly, and conditions should improve tonight.

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Malakas has evolved into a strong extratropical storm southeast of Japan. The system will continue to head out into the cold waters of the north Pacific so tropical redevelopment is not likely.

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