Convective Weather General Discussion

[Gordon]

All these warnings expire at 18.00 so by 15.00 or 16.00 if you haven't had any bad weather you can essentially knock it on the head

wonder if the met office is in league with a Umbrella Manufacturer

[Harry]

Gotta Love the Met Office Weather Warning Map

Everywhere under a Warning.................Except Kent

Yeah Paul....laugh it up...come on now, clear your throat!!

That takes the biscuit...however, the MetO frequently do that with these setups and as the morning goes on, they put the crayola to Kent (and then normally Surrey and Sussex - just this time they've already done that!)

I also find it very hard to believe that storms can be expected to develop in Essex (to the north), London (to the West) and Sussex/Surrey, to the SW...with none of them moving NE into Kent...but Im in central London anyway, under the orange, so not too fussed

Dark ominous skies approaching London atm from the frontal detritus - some heavier bursts amongst it, and driving in to London earlier the cloud line looked well structured with some decent heights also...may get the odd spark! Quite stuffy as well!

Edited September 23, 2010 by Harry

[Neilsouth]

I can see some large anvils WAY off to the south east

[The watcher]

An amazing high based storm cell now running down the Irish Sea to my ENE, looks amazing with a little overshooting top breaking through the cap.

[Lewis]

A waiting game.....

Lets hope it can go bang before autumn does take hold.

[Gordon]

Just saw the latest BBC forecast on News 24 and their forecast map shows not much in the way of rainfall this afternoon

and Tomas Schafernaker is hedging his bets quite substantially now saying that they have no idea where these showers will pop up and some may havw a pleasant day but be prepared just in case

like the poster above says just wait and see

you may get a shower you may not

Edited September 23, 2010 by Gordon

[Lewis]

I would not rule out a thundery downpour for anyone today, although I think the South West through the bristol channel, parts of the midlands and also NE england (North of Bridlington to Whitby area) have a higher risk. Theres something im keeping an eye on later for my neck of the woods when another front pushes down from the North around 11pm-2am tonight/tomorrow morning. Could be some pretty hefty rain for a time.

SB Cape and M-Level are best for the areas talked about above. Another factor is the wind direction. As we start to pick up a more North to North East wind a little later areas exposed too it may see showers die off before they get chance to push over.

Midlands, SW England/Bristol channel area, and parts of NE england for me.

Any takers ?

[Stuart]

we had a few showers all reday

[Guest FireStorm]

Gotta Love the Met Office Weather Warning Map

Everywhere under a Warning.................Except Kent

That's the one thing Kent has been really good for this year, dodging all the warnings.

[MP-R]

Heavy, sometime very heavy rain here in Egham. With no wind and quite a misty morning it's almost like being in the rainforest.

[Gordon]

Heavy, sometime very heavy rain here in Egham. With no wind and quite a misty morning it's almost like being in the rainforest.

that's the problem with these showers moving so slowly It could set the pattern for the day

if you miss them your day may be mainly dry if your under them as you are at the moment you may have them for an hour or two or three

Edited September 23, 2010 by Gordon

[staplehurst]

What you have to consider is the Met Office don't know exactly where the showers will develop, otherwise they would have only issued warnings for those affected counties.

They can't win - put a blanket warning out, and people moan they miss the showers, or put the warnings out an hour or two after the storms have developed and people moan they weren't out early enough??

[Stuart]

come on met office just doing there job

still not much going on at the moment but still long way to go

Edited September 23, 2010 by Stuart

[Wet'n'Dry]

What you have to consider is the Met Office don't know exactly where the showers will develop, otherwise they would have only issued warnings for those affected counties.

They can't win - put a blanket warning out, and people moan they miss the showers, or put the warnings out an hour or two after the storms have developed and people moan they weren't out early enough??

Damned if they do and damned if they don't

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Starting to look a little more interesting on the radar, big shower just gone up just north of Newcastle. It's gone from nothing to rain rates of 100mm/hour in about 10 mins.

Hope they become more widespread and thundery.

[Supacell]

Agree with the comments about the met office. When they put out a warning it is for the risk of severe weather, it does not mean it will happen over everyones house within the warning area. If there is a risk of heavy rain bringing a risk of flooding then it is there duty to warn people.

Anyway, looking good for many today and I will be out and about in my local area. GFS seems to feel that the rain moving down the eastern side of the UK this evening and overnight will have a thundery element with the 50%+ storm risk covering eastern areas into the early hours... any thoughts?

[Harry]

Agree with the comments about the met office. When they put out a warning it is for the risk of severe weather, it does not mean it will happen over everyones house within the warning area. If there is a risk of heavy rain bringing a risk of flooding then it is there duty to warn people.

Anyway, looking good for many today and I will be out and about in my local area. GFS seems to feel that the rain moving down the eastern side of the UK this evening and overnight will have a thundery element with the 50%+ storm risk covering eastern areas into the early hours... any thoughts?

Agree with all of the above...people need to look up the term 'risk' in a dictionary...ingredients for thundery weather are present in most areas of the UK, and therefore there is a risk of those ingredients coming to fruition...the nature of showers alone dictate that only some will get wet! I can be dry one end of a road, while a matter of metres away it stays completely dry. Furthermore, the nature of lightning, a person could be hit today and it may not even be where it's raining!

[Guest FireStorm]

London's looking nice on radar.. some heavy rain pushing through!

[Andy Bown]

I'm surprised nobody else has mentioned the amount of cloud cover after the Cold Front. The rain stopped nearly 6

hours ago yet it is still mostly cloudy with a few hazy sunny spells.

IMO this is already limiting the convection and will have a major impact on hopes for thundery showers across all

areas where the Cold Front will clear in the next few hours. I don't even think there will be anything more than

scattered moderate showers across the Somerset/Bath/Wiltshire/Dorset/Gloucestershire areas. The most interesting

clouds are a few TCu that have developed but they're not very impressive. *

Does anyone know if there was thundery activity from the Cold Front? Some of the rain was very torrential and gave

35mm in 6 hours here.

* = I am willing to be proved wrong if it means getting thundery weather!

[TonyH]

Well, virtually nowhere in the UK has experienced the requisit 20mm plus in just 3 hours so far today. Warnings still valid though I guess as there is the slightest risk in each of the counties covered?

Edited September 23, 2010 by Tonyh

[Nick F]

Some strikes showing up recently on Atd across Manchester area and North Yorks, main upper trough now moving through across N England, Wales and western parts of England.

[Gordon]

BBC expects the Heaviest and the more slow moving showers across more northern parts eg : NW England N Wales and N Midlands while there will be heavy showers elsewhere as well

Some people will be lucky or unlucky depending on your point of view and stay dry

as some others have said it's still fairly cloudy with only limited breaks but I don't know how that'll impact on any shower development

Edited September 23, 2010 by Gordon

[Arnie Pie]

Think it'll be a few more hours before convection properly gets going, as instability increases with increased diurnal heating under upper cold pool. Already there have been a few sferics detected on the cell just east of Warrington and also on the cell towards N Yorks. Conditions for lightning and hail most favourable over Wales, W Mids, N England and southernmost parts of Scotland given coldest upper air over these regions.

Cheers W09

Ready and waiting

Windy

[Stuart]

not much happing here right now

[Lynxus]

A few blue patches round here, Seems like a normal day for round here at the moment.