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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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   Ian told us yesetrday that its due to glosea 5 model output. clearly that repeating signal is becoming muted.

 

I don't want to speak to soon but it seems that this Winter is not working out for us coldies!

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Afraid not, they have reverted to average into February, I have to say this was what I was fearing with the lack of further strat warmings in FI on recent runs.

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting late in January, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly inbetween weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

It's unusual to see so many changes in their outlook over a few days. I wouldn't  despair as all the models bar Carinthian's Austrian model have been all over the place this last week or two. I expect lots more upgrades, downgrades and upgrades again over the next few weeks.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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I don't want to speak to soon but it seems that this Winter is not working out for us coldies!

Much to the delight of Summer Sun, as we can blatantly see! Oh well, the mildies got their wish, and we're all paying the price with horrendous rain and wind. Are you happy now, mildies?! You've ruined the weather with your bizarre weather preferences (yes, you're all responsible - every single one of you). Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by cheese

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Much to the delight of Summer Sun, as we can blatantly see! Oh well, the mildies got their wish, and we're all paying the price with horrendous rain and wind. Are you happy now, mildies?! You've ruined the weather with your bizarre weather preferences (yes, you're all responsible - every single one of you). Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

I've pretty much given up now on any hope for a sustained cold spell this Winter. If we do get something meaningful later in January and February then great but for now my expectations are low. Let's hope that changes quick!

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Winter without snow is the biggest waste of time. It's just an extended November, and November is probably the worst month.

Edited by cheese

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Have you not seen the models?

 

I expect a good update from the Met Office tomorrow :)

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I wouldn't worry too much heck lot of the posts said a change to colder conditions which never happened so why should a change to normal temps?

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Well, given the model progress over the last 24 hours, it appears the person who produced it, is indeed a supreme forecaster.

 

All hail the Met Office. They are the best.

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:

 

On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=regionalForecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:

 

On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=regionalForecast

Well that's not the update I was looking for, in fact I'm starting to think that this winter will go the way of the last two around these parts. 

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:

 

On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=regionalForecast

 

 

Damp squib are the best words I can describe for that forecast!  Clock is ticking away.....

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Damp squib are the best words I can describe for that forecast!  Clock is ticking away.....

I'm fast losing interest in this winter, personally I feel we could have to wait until med Feb onwards for any sustained cold, if at all.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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These updates are increasingly worrying for the areas suffering flooding surely?

 

With troughs/fronts stalling around the South West, throw in the large temperature gradient between the colder continental air and the Atlantic and there could be some seriously disruptive rainfall.

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I'm fast losing interest in this winter, personally I feel we could have to wait until med Feb onwards for any sustained cold, if at all.

 

I feel the same and like I said yesterday I don't really expect any meaningful sustained cold this Winter.  I think we just have to accept for now that Winter 2013/14 is a mild one.  I know there's time for that to change and I hope it does but for now I shan't get involved with any model roller coaster rides until they're showing great synoptics within the 48 hour range!

Edited by Don

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UK Outlook for Friday 24 Jan 2014 to Friday 7 Feb 2014:

 

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting late in January, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly in between weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Jan 2014 to Friday 24 Jan 2014:

Rain and hill snow in the far northeast will clear through Wednesday. Further rain will move northeastwards through Wednesday and into Thursday with heavy rain at times and hill snow across the north and east. It will turn windy with mild conditions in the southwest but rather cold temperatures in the far north and east. From Friday (17th) to Sunday (19th), southern and western areas are likely to be unsettled with strong winds and rain at times, and temperatures near or just below average. Although rain is expected elsewhere, there should be more prolonged drier interludes, although it is likely to be colder with a greater risk of frost and ice. The end of the period looks most likely to be unsettled with temperatures remaining near or just below average.

Updated: 1216 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Jan 2014 to Saturday 8 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into late January and early February, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of this month. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1225 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Jan 2014 to Sunday 9 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into late January and early February, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of this month. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1159 on Sat 11 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jan 2014 to Saturday 25 Jan 2014:

Unsettled through the second half of next week with showers or longer spells of rain affecting many regions. Some heavy rain at times, probably most likely over southern and western parts, and also a risk of hills snow in the north. Temperatures then near average for many, perhaps a little milder to the southwest and slightly below average to the northeast. Developments next weekend are, at this stage, uncertain, but the most likely scenario is thought for conditions to become a little more settled and perhaps also a little colder from the east or northeast. During the week after next conditions appear more likely than not to turn a little more unsettled, especially over northern and western parts. Some cold nights possible then, but daytime temperatures probably nearer average again.

Updated: 1156 on Sat 11 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 17 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Remaining largely unsettled on Friday and into the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting many regions. There will be some heavy rain at times, probably most likely over southern and western parts, and also a risk of hill snow in the north. Windy, especially towards the north and east, with gales, possibly severe gales in exposure. Temperatures near average for many, perhaps a little milder to the southwest and slightly below average in the northeast. Into the following week, the more unsettled conditions are likely to gradually become confined to the north, with more settled weather likely in the south at times. Some cold nights possible then, but daytime temperatures probably nearer average again.

Updated: 1130 on Sun 12 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 27 Jan 2014 to Monday 10 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into late January and early February, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of this month. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly between weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1131 on Sun 12 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Jan 2014 to Monday 27 Jan 2014:

Sunny spells through the weekend but probably still on the unsettled side with some showers. These are most likely near southern and western coasts, and they could be wintry over high ground. Also, some more persistent rain is possible in the north at first. Temperatures near or just below average for many, but rather cold for northern parts by night with a risk of frost and fog patches. Into the following week and it is likely to become slightly more unsettled. It may turn windier, especially in the northwest, as rain spreads in form the west, probably preceded by some hill snow. Later in the period and it is likely to remain at least a little on the unsettled side, especially in the north. Temperatures near or below normal.

Updated: 1132 on Mon 13 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Not overly cold but nothing mild there either. I've known a lot worse.

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Not overly cold but nothing mild there either. I've known a lot worse.

Indeed,  but we're slip sliding into a pretty ordinary few weeks with the emphasis still on rain albeit the colder variety.

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Looks like they currently expect temperatures to be on the colder side of average, so an improvement in that respect at least.

Edited by Don

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