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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Friday 29 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

    Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to the far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. If this were to occur many inland and southern areas would likely see drier than average conditions, with some overnight of frost and fog.

    Sunday 7 Feb - Sunday 21 Feb

    Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, colder periods.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    I had seen this update just as Ian fergie was saying that they (met) are looking at a potentially colder weekend and future so hopefully the updates will change nxt couple of days 

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, georgiedre said:

    I had seen this update just as Ian fergie was saying that they (met) are looking at a potentially colder weekend and future so hopefully the updates will change nxt couple of days 

    Sounds promising but must be particularly difficult to call longer term at the moment!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Saturday 30 Jan - Monday 8 Feb

    Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. If this were to occur many inland and southern areas would likely see drier than average conditions, with some overnight frost and fog.

    Monday 8 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

    Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy, and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, and colder periods.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire

    UK long range weather forecast

    Sunday 31 Jan - Tuesday 9 Feb

    After a very cold but bright start to Sunday, rain will move in from the west later. Going into next week, unsettled conditions look likely to dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder temperatures to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder temperatures and wintry outbreaks.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021

    Tuesday 9 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb

    Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021

     

    bit of a upgrade id say...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    35 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:

    UK long range weather forecast

    Sunday 31 Jan - Tuesday 9 Feb

    After a very cold but bright start to Sunday, rain will move in from the west later. Going into next week, unsettled conditions look likely to dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder temperatures to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder temperatures and wintry outbreaks.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021

    Tuesday 9 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb

    Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021

     

    bit of a upgrade id say...

     

    inline with projections,,,,✌✌✌

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Very exciting update winter is not over looks like the best of winter is to come even south is in the mix’s now

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes a very good update from the professionals ,will we see some good wintry charts appearing over the coming days .hope all of us get to see some snow even low levels , must be carefull what we wish for in this time of war (virus ) you can compare many things now as they were 1939 /40 plus of course the weather which i think was censored to an extent, would be very hard to cover up  these days ,ps ,great forum ,knowledgable people ,let the big hunt commence gang , sausage baps all round cheers .

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

    Yes that’s a decent update, let’s hope the charts back that up as January comes to a close.

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire
    frost-covering-a-sunny-field.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies.

     

    3 month outlook

     

    3-month Summary) • Overall reduction in the chance of cold conditions compared to normal
    • A cold 3-month period remains possible
    • Greater chance of cold spells early in the period
    • Slightly higher-than-normal chance of dry conditions 
    • Near average or wet conditions remain possible

     

    1-month summary 


    (1-month Summary) • Increased chance of a cold February compared to normal
    • Greater likelihood of impacts from cold weather such as snow and ice 
    • A near average or mild month remains possible
    • The chance of wet conditions is slightly higher than the chance of dry conditions
    • Increased likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall
    • A near average or dry month remains possible

     

    take with a bag of salt, all bases covered...

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index

     

    Edited by Bermuda High
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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    53 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:
    frost-covering-a-sunny-field.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies.

     

    3 month outlook

     

    3-month Summary) • Overall reduction in the chance of cold conditions compared to normal
    • A cold 3-month period remains possible
    • Greater chance of cold spells early in the period
    • Slightly higher-than-normal chance of dry conditions 
    • Near average or wet conditions remain possible

     

    1-month summary 


    (1-month Summary) • Increased chance of a cold February compared to normal
    • Greater likelihood of impacts from cold weather such as snow and ice 
    • A near average or mild month remains possible
    • The chance of wet conditions is slightly higher than the chance of dry conditions
    • Increased likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall
    • A near average or dry month remains possible

     

    take with a bag of salt, all bases covered...

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index

     

    That’s brilliant, every possible scenario covered. They can’t be wrong 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a turnaround as the update from 16:00 Monday to 16:00 Tuesday - a completely different forecast, and a massive upgrade. Never seen a shift like that in the space of 24 hours. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    The UKMO long-range update is holding firm for coldies today! Here are the highlights:

    “Monday 1 Feb - Wednesday 10 Feb:

    Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder temperatures and wintry outbreaks.

    Wednesday 10 Feb - Wednesday 24 Feb:

    Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells.”

    Here’s to some decent 12z upgrades later this afternoon, this could be our best shot at a prolonged cold spell this winter.👍

    Link to the full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    15 hours ago, saintkip said:

    That’s brilliant, every possible scenario covered. They can’t be wrong 

    What a sack of ban that is. I could cover that lot. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Met office holding firm with the suggestion of a possible lengthy cold period in February and not just a 2-3 day wonder, could easily see a fortnight of very cold weather if heights lock in to our north and we pull in a colder NE feed. High chances I say!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    Met office holding firm with the suggestion of a possible lengthy cold period in February and not just a 2-3 day wonder, could easily see a fortnight of very cold weather if heights lock in to our north and we pull in a colder NE feed. High chances I say!

    Yes and the latest BBC monthly outlook is non too shabby either for those who want cold!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tuesday 2 Feb - Thursday 11 Feb

    Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.

    Thursday 11 Feb - Thursday 25 Feb

    Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Quite an update!

     

    Quote

    Wintry precipitation is likely to persist over northern areas on Wednesday, showers in the far southwest, elsewhere rather cloudy with plenty of dry weather. Mild at first in the south; though high pressure building up over the north of the UK during this period is likely to bring easterly winds, cold temperatures, and coastal snow showers. A pattern of wintry showers persisting across the far north, elsewhere seeing mostly fine weather, widespread frosts, fog, and icy patches. Eastern parts seeing the most hazardous conditions, with further snow showers likely. The south and west will see the most of any organised rain and snow, but frontal systems are generally not expected to progress across the country.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

    Quote

    Friday 12 Feb - Friday 26 Feb

    High pressure to the north looks set to remain for at least the beginning of this period, before slowly declining, although confidence at this range is low. Mid February will continue to see cold, dry, and wintry weather, but towards the end of the month more unsettled weather may encroach from the Atlantic. These may bring rain and snow at times to the west and southwest. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible in many areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

     

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Quite an update!

     

     

    Very good update.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    Very good update.

    Hmm, suppose I have seen worse.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Hmm, suppose I have seen worse.....

    Exciting update if you want snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    Exciting update if you want snow.

    And I do indeed!  My comment one of a jokey nature 😉

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    This is about as far as the met office will come off the fence at 7 days out.

    Very positive signs

    For something still 7 days away, that's about as bullish a forecast for prolonged Easterly-driven cold as I've ever seen. That doesn't mean anything is nailed of course but I'm always of the view that until Exeter jump aboard, potential Easterlies are more hope than anything. To have them on-side is a real confidence booster going forward...

    Edited by ITSY
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    I particularly like the bit about the south and west seeing the most of any organised rain and snow.

    That has stalling and retreating fronts written all over it.

    I started to get the old Feb 78 tingle when I read that.

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