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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    Take 2

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    Confidence is particularly low at the start of this period. Cloud, rain and stronger winds, heaviest in the north and west, sinking south later. Drier conditions in sheltered east and southeast areas, with colder, brighter, and more settled conditions to the north of these regions. Temperatures rather mild in the south, to cold in the north. It is expected that high pressure will then develop to the southwest of the UK, generating a changeable north-westerly wind with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent. Temperatures closer to average, but large day to night temperature contrasts under clear skies.

    Thursday 21 Jan - Thursday 4 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for winds from the west to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be around average to a little below. The south is more likely to see unsettled conditions with the potential for milder than average temperatures here, but this will also bring a risk of further snow where this meets the colder conditions to the north.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    A rather poor update if you're a snow lover in the south!  As always, likely to change of course but can only comment on the current forecast.

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Regarding these long range scripts I've had a browse through the Met Office website to see if any of the jobs or careers on there mentioned writing scripts. I found this role called an Operational Meteorological Technician (link below). This role appears fairly new, I don't think I've seen it when looking for jobs at the MO in the past, and mentions one of the responsibilities is writing media scripts. It also only lists 4 weeks of basic meteorology training, and 4-8 weeks on the job training. To become a MO forecaster I've seen total training durations of >12 months mentioned on previous adverts in the past!

    Do you think it could be the case that new "technicians" are now writing these scripts with perhaps as little as 8-12 weeks of training behind them when they start?-it may explain some of the strange things that appear to pop up in them from time to time? Could be feasible in my mind.

    I wonder if the MO realise how many people read and place value in these, from some of the recent scripts it appears that not a huge amount of time with day after day repeats of the same script, and evidently very little checking is being done. It seems a real shame. I'm sure their forecasters have some great knowledge and reasoning behind things, I note the recent excellent MO 10 day trend on YouTube, but little of that seems to be getting through in these scripts for some reason.

     

    meteorologist.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    We have recently introduced a new role at the Met Office - the Operational Meteorologist Technician (OMT).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Outlook still suggests blocking to the north later in the month, possibly directly to the north with low pressure to the SW trying to make inroads but coming unstuck - where the fronts align snow or rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Outlook still suggests blocking to the north later in the month, possibly directly to the north with low pressure to the SW trying to make inroads but coming unstuck - where the fronts align snow or rain.

    It does but it looks to be moving away from a colder outlook to me?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    It does but it looks to be moving away from a colder outlook to me?

    Perhaps might a Icelandic wedge type high scenario, with trough to our east more of a northerly/north easterly flow than deep seated easterly flow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Perhaps might a Icelandic wedge type high scenario, with trough to our east more of a northerly/north easterly flow than deep seated easterly flow. 

    Maybe, but from a IMBY perspective probably wouldn't do well in this scenario and likely be on the wrong side of marginal?

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Can change.  Suddenly flipped last week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    29 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Can change.  Suddenly flipped last week.

    Absolutely.  Uncertainty I think is the message at the moment for the weather outlook as well as everything else currently!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    I’ve  just checked met office update on there website seems they have changed again since yesterday colder outlook ..

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes  good update , i think some good charts will appear very soon , think the main areas of interest is where high pressure will be situated 7/8 days from now , bring it on ,cheers .

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes Its looking much better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Wednesday 13 Jan - Friday 22 Jan

    Most likely unsettled with rain and hill snow spreading north and east on Wednesday. Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west. Mild in the south and west, and colder further north and east. Into the following week, rather unsettled conditions with spells of rain and perhaps strong winds will cross the UK at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are more likely in the south and west. Drier and more settled conditions are more likely in the north and east. Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 8 Jan 2021

     

    Friday 22 Jan - Friday 5 Feb
    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 8 Jan 2021

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes Its looking much better.

    like this   nearly a ramp.

    Friday 22 Jan - Friday 5 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Definitely a step in the right direction, but needs to continue moving in the same direction before  more southern areas can really join the party!

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just waiting for the re-post conformation by Gavin..😉

    It's certainly a good update into the last third of the Month.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    Mild in the South and West till the 22nd at least then - well thats  a pretty dire forecast for us southerners 

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    3 minutes ago, cobbett said:

    Mild in the South and West till the 22nd at least then - well thats  a pretty dire forecast for us southerners 

    Realy?

    "Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas."

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Cold not far away already to the ne.Any downwelling effects of the ssw because of lag times were always more likely to be seen later in the month so the M.O update is reasonable as there are no certaintys in how the NH is re-jigged. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
    1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Realy?

    "Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas."

     Still more likely to be milder in South and West. A chance of colder but thats just a catch all back covering statement 

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    10 minutes ago, cobbett said:

     Still more likely to be milder in South and West. A chance of colder but thats just a catch all back covering statement 

    "Mild in the South and West till the 22nd at least then"

    Let's see then as they are

     "very uncertain and there's a chance of cold spells for all"

    But agree they state more likely..

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    24 minutes ago, cobbett said:

    Mild in the South and West till the 22nd at least then - well thats  a pretty dire forecast for us southerners 

    I’m in south east London I’m not complaining very good update

    Edited by Scandinavian High.
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    "Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas."

     

    This paragraph screams they don't know what is going to happen and are covering all bases. I wouldn't take too much notice of these updates until the impact of the SSW becomes clearer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Thursday 14 Jan - Saturday 23 Jan

    Most likely unsettled with rain and hill snow spreading north and east on Wednesday. Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west. Mild in the south and west, and colder further north and east. Into the following week, rather unsettled conditions with spells of rain and perhaps strong winds will cross the UK at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are more likely in the south and west. Drier and more settled conditions are more likely in the north and east. Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas.

    Saturday 23 Jan - Saturday 6 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

    what a completely crazy worded forecast. Doesnt scream very cold either. Yawn

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