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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year. 

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    13 minutes ago, danthetan said:

    Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year. 

    Typical UK winter weather. Certainly an improvement on last year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Monday 28 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

    It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales, although there are signs for lighter winds in central and eastern areas bringing potential fog. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

    Wednesday 6 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

    A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain, but for now a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    51 minutes ago, Howie said:

    So strange, there's no indication of that on the models really 🤔

    These 10 day trend forecasts never seem that accurate, and they must be using some other model to suggest high pressure sitting over the UK by end of the new year,. The models we look at aren't suggesting that. 

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    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    These 10 day trend forecasts never seem that accurate, and they must be using some other model to suggest high pressure sitting over the UK by end of the new year,. The models we look at aren't suggesting that

    Thank you! Honestly seriously confused by that lol. I won't pay attention to it then 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Yes no sign of a UK high like the video showed in current models,that we see.

    I could see perhaps our trough edging a little further east in time with a ridge moving closer in from the west but nothing i have seen suggest a high cell right over us-in 10 days anyway.

    Time will tell as they say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

    The output continues to be outstanding for cold prospects.....but this forecast from the met is almost annoying....if it turns to be correct 😖whilst at this juncture all major models are showing something completely different, It does make me wonder why we look at them at all 🙈......slight over reaction 😒

    Just for balance, the METO extended forecast was going for a settled second half of June this year, even though all of the model output available to us suggested otherwise. Overnight, the METO forecast flipped. As I said before, they always seem to be behind the curve.

    Of course, they may turn out to be correct. But If ECM sides with GFS, I wouldn’t worry.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    14 minutes ago, Howie said:

    I was just saying how much this has completely baffled me

    Don't worry by tommorow it will be gone still a full 10 days away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Completely baffled by that Metoffice video forecast I have to admit.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Met office 10 day trend a few weeks ago was wrong 48 hours ahead, it went for sunny skies and we never saw the sun at all in that timeframe lol, so failed 48 hours ahead, nevermind 10 days ahead. 

    I commented on their channel but no reply!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Durham, Co Durham
  • Location: Durham, Co Durham

    Just watched the Met Office 10 day trend.

    Apart from a couple of sleety days early next week, it doesn't look like much at all - and definitely seems at odds to the upbeat mood in here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Tyne and Wear
    45 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    I wouldn’t worry tbh.. 

    Looking at the bbc monthly forecast that was updated today it looks like they are now favouring a lengthy cold spell especially for northern areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    The MetO don’t allow all their products to be freely available. In addition expect human interpretation of the output. And finally I think there is a political slant to all MetO dealings with snow and ice. They do not like making wintry predictions a week or more out... firstly because it whips up the media, secondly because it can leave them with egg on face, and thirdly because it can impact human behaviour. Consider the implications on public buying at shops and supermarkets of Covid blockades, Brexit no-deal and then reports of potential snow. Nothing in the world of outward facing public communications happens by chance. Do we really think Schapps believed there were only 147 lorries stuck in Kent as he issued his public press broadcast the other day? Ha. Machinations within machinations.......

    I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

    In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

    This said, why make the video in the first place then.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

    In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

    This said, why make the video in the first place then.

    Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

    296EB623-F365-4EFF-B0C7-51EE13FE538D.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

    296EB623-F365-4EFF-B0C7-51EE13FE538D.jpeg

    Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

    296EB623-F365-4EFF-B0C7-51EE13FE538D.jpeg

    No model i have looked at is suggesting that for the new year!  Admit I haven’t done all the ensembles, though!

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    10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

    In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

    This said, why make the video in the first place then.

    I totally agree with this 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

    That rings a bell!  Doesn’t MOGREPS and the thing they call DECIDER have 30 different synoptic patterns for UK weather that they categorise into?  I remember viewing a PowerPoint on it. I think you’ve got that right. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

    Looks like an MJO phase climatological still lol

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