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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a bit better though with the high moving further North, if that continued at the end of February then it could get far enough North to allow some bitterly cold weather.

Agree, it's better than what we've had so far this winter.  Well, up until the last few days which have been rather nice!

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Monday 27 Jan - Wednesday 5 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Wednesday 5 Feb - Wednesday 19 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday 27 Jan - Wednesday 5 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Wednesday 5 Feb - Wednesday 19 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

This to me suggests the azores high will ridge into near continent and southern parts of the UK by mid Feb aided by the jet taking a more definate SW-NE trajectory further to the NW, the high then building and possibly pulling in some chilly continental air.. this sort of pattern far more likely to happen come mid Feb, than earlier in the winter.

Longer term, if core of PV swings to N SIberia, then a scandi trough could slice through the high sending out to the mid atlantic, and we finally see a pattern change!

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17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This to me suggests the azores high will ridge into near continent and southern parts of the UK by mid Feb aided by the jet taking a more definate SW-NE trajectory further to the NW, the high then building and possibly pulling in some chilly continental air.. this sort of pattern far more likely to happen come mid Feb, than earlier in the winter.

Longer term, if core of PV swings to N SIberia, then a scandi trough could slice through the high sending out to the mid atlantic, and we finally see a pattern change!

They've dropped the above average wording in the latter part of the update, I'm sure average will feel bloomin cold compared to what we've had

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Tuesday 28 Jan - Thursday 6 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Thursday 6 Feb - Thursday 20 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tuesday 28 Jan - Thursday 6 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Thursday 6 Feb - Thursday 20 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

in other words Tuesday 28 Jan-Thursday 6th Feb Dross

Thursday 6 Feb -Thursday 20 Feb More Dross

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Wednesday 29 Jan - Friday 7 Feb

At the start of the period, there will be rain spreading across the north, with some hill snow at times. Potential for some gales in the northwest. Breezy with showers in the south, with the brightest weather mostly in the east. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Friday 7 Feb - Friday 21 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Met Office forecast wordings are now so over cautious and precautionary its as if they are worried about a law suit!..

 

A case in point current wording for Monday and Tuesday, wintry showers could fall on higher ground, it should read 'will', there is no doubt they will fall given the uppers.. I guess it depends on what the Met Office class as higher ground - would be interested to note, if they are saying 200 metres, then 'could' probably right word to use, but 500m or more which I would class as higher ground then a definate 'will' should be used. 

I'm being very pedantic I know.

Anyone else know what the cut off between lower levels and higher ground is???

 

Also defintion of 'hill snow' - again what level are they talking - difficult to have a catch all I guess.. but hill snow can mean 200 metres here, whereas it can mean 400 metres in Wales.. and barely 100 metres in Scotland..

Edited by damianslaw

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I have a memory that it is over 250 mtrs though not 100% sure. I do know that when issuing the monthly regional  temp averages they discount the reporting stations over 250 mtrs so that the averages are not skewed by mountain stations in say the Scottish Highlands, Pennines etc.

Meanwhile if the further outlook is correct we can write off low level snow for just about all this Winter😟 unless something unexpected comes along.

 

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Thursday 30 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Rather unsettled to start the period, with rain possibly affecting northern and western areas, as well as some coastal gales in the northwest. The south and east could stay mostly dry and bright. Generally mild. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Saturday 8 Feb - Saturday 22 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 30 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Rather unsettled to start the period, with rain possibly affecting northern and western areas, as well as some coastal gales in the northwest. The south and east could stay mostly dry and bright. Generally mild. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Saturday 8 Feb - Saturday 22 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sounds similar to February 2008.

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Friday 31 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Sunday 9 Feb - Sunday 23 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Saturday 1 Feb - Monday 10 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Monday 10 Feb - Monday 24 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Sunday 2 Feb - Tuesday 11 Feb

After a wet and windy day Sunday, the beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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A slightly more interesting update. 👍

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Monday 3 Feb - Wednesday 12 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Tuesday 4 Feb - Thursday 13 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Thursday 13 Feb - Thursday 27 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Mmm not sure what factors are influencing this forecast, given the signals for a rampant PV to the north west and strong atlantic jet.. can't see how high pressure will hold on and shake it off?

Indeed the forecasts have held firm on the high pressure scenario for a number of days, the only thing that could happen is the jet aligns far to the north and enable azores high to ridge over the UK with the jet aligned SW-NE far to our NE, plausible but this doesn't tend to hold sway when it is very strong, so perhaps the models are overplaying the strength of the PV and jet and back away from this in future runs.. 

This winter has been the winter of over-reaction to both amplification and a turbo-charged jet.

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13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm not sure what factors are influencing this forecast, given the signals for a rampant PV to the north west and strong atlantic jet.. can't see how high pressure will hold on and shake it off?

Indeed the forecasts have held firm on the high pressure scenario for a number of days, the only thing that could happen is the jet aligns far to the north and enable azores high to ridge over the UK with the jet aligned SW-NE far to our NE, plausible but this doesn't tend to hold sway when it is very strong, so perhaps the models are overplaying the strength of the PV and jet and back away from this in future runs.. 

This winter has been the winter of over-reaction to both amplification and a turbo-charged jet.

Maybe the models are underplaying this ridge to build in early next week,it seems the meto kept on banging on about the high migrating NW to influence most of the UK

could this high push further north to get a continental flow into the SE,mmm!

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Wednesday 5 Feb - Friday 14 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Friday 14 Feb - Friday 28 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Does the 'further outlook' extend to Summer? That's all I really care about now after this god awful season. 

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4 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

Does the 'further outlook' extend to Summer? That's all I really care about now after this god awful season. 

It certainly looks to be up there with the very worst, if not THE worst! 😲

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Thursday 6 Feb - Saturday 15 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first on Thursday with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Saturday 15 Feb - Saturday 29 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Friday 7 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Friday will probably remain settled, dry and mainly overcast throughout much of the UK, with a few early fog patches in the south. Later in the day, conditions may turn more unsettled, with rain approaching and stronger winds from the northwest. However, confidence is low on the timing of this breakdown. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Sunday 16 Feb - Sunday 1 Mar

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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