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UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Mar 2019 to Sunday 17 Mar 2019:

For the start of March we are likely to continue to see Atlantic frontal systems mainly affecting northern and western parts, but these will occasionally move further east across the rest of the UK as more active features, with strong winds and rain at times. However, many southern and eastern parts of the UK should remain predominantly settled throughout. Any snow looks most likely to be confined to higher ground in the north, although there remains a small chance of snow to low-levels elsewhere, should a continental easterly airflow develop. Temperatures are likely to remain mild overall, although some night frosts are likley in quieter periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

Many places will stay dry with sunny spells on Thursday and Friday. The far west and northwest is likely to be cloudier and breezier, with some rain and drizzle. Temperatures will widely be above the seasonal average, but sometimes they will be tempered in the north and west by the wind. Towards the end of Februarary and beinging of March, there will probably be a good deal of dry and bright weather across the south and east, but morning fog is likely here. It will be more changeable in the northwest, with the risk of gales, although some drier interludes are possible here. Temperatures are most likely to be mild overall, but overnight frosts will be likely, with a small chance of a colder spell developing in the east later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Ignoring the forecast for a second, there are spelling mistakes in that. That’s not good!

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Ignoring the forecast for a second, there are spelling mistakes in that. That’s not good!

These updates have been as useful as there grammer!! They would probably point out that the predictive text on their phones has been playing up! ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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The weather forecast debacle just highlights the issues with longer range outputs .

The UKMO forecasts have been woeful and they’re probably relieved that most of the public don’t bother reading them however businesses sensitive to the weather do pay quite a lot for detailed longer range output .

So this looks like quite an embarrassing few months for the UKMO and other outlets.

 

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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

These updates have been as useful as there grammer!! They would probably point out that the predictive text on their phones has been playing up! ?

And just as I wrote this post I had to correct it for spelling mistakes!! ?

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UK Outlook for Friday 22 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

Friday is likely to be mild but breezy across the UK with many places dry and sunny. The southeast may see some early mist and fog, but also the best of the sunshine and very mild in places. The far northwest could see some rain and stronger winds; generally cloudier, more changeable here. This northwest-southeast split in conditions is likely to be maintained through the weekend and into next week. Any spells of rain from the northwest will tend to weaken as it moves southeast, bringing cloudier spells. Dry, settled conditions are likely to dominate through the end of February away from the far northwest; overnight frosts are possible. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2019 to Monday 18 Mar 2019:

By early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts crossing the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, although occasional overnight frosts remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2019 to Monday 18 Mar 2019:

By early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts crossing the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, although occasional overnight frosts remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

easterly it is then?

Edited by lassie23
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41 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

As soon as it drops all traces of an easterly,  a cold spell will be imminent.  Until then...

Got to hand it to them, they have been signalling an Easterly for nigh on 3 months now, they deserve credit for their persistence at least! ??

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UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Monday 4 Mar 2019:

The weekend will be largely fine and very mild with sunshine for many, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier at times with rain and strong winds. The southeast may see some early mist and fog, but also the best of the sunshine. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Mar 2019 to Tuesday 19 Mar 2019:

By early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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On 15/02/2019 at 17:39, Ed Stone said:

Just been explaining to my daughter,  why my winter prediction went so horribly wrong! ?

What seaweed were you using?  Time for a different variety?

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Has to be said the Met Office long range forecasts have been woeful this winter - never known a winter like it, with cold weather predicted but pushed back and back and back and then cancelled. Best just sticking to the shorter range.

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Has to be said the Met Office long range forecasts have been woeful this winter - never known a winter like it, with cold weather predicted but pushed back and back and back and then cancelled. Best just sticking to the shorter range.

They have been poor, but I suppose they can only go along with their models and background signals for guidance.  I suspect there are lots of discussions going on within the metoffice at the moment.  It was similar in 2016/17, when a front loaded cold winter was forecast, only for the cold to keep being pushed back and then didn’t happen.  However, this winter has been a different story.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2019:

Sunday and Monday will be largely fine and very mild with some sunshine, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier with rain and strong winds at times. The southeast may see some early mist and fog, but this will clear through the morning. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are still possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Mar 2019 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2019:

Into early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Mar 2019 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2019:

Into early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

??. Are they going to say there could be an easterly all the way through summer months as well. They may as well as they have been saying this since December. Utterly comical. 

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19 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

??. Are they going to say there could be an easterly all the way through summer months as well. They may as well as they have been saying this since December. Utterly comical. 

Yes maybe leave the easterly there until next winter. 

Edited by Rascals Revenge
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