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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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21 hours ago, Catacol said:

It's a carefully worded downgrade. "Very cold" has gone, a move to average temps for next week is clear, and the previous report mentioned snow....and now its rain, sleet and snow. In addition we now have "some periods" when the wind may come from the east.

They could hardly U - turn within a day as it would leave them looking as average as forecasters as some of us excited amateurs are looking at the moment with our cold forecasts peaking with this week's disappointing transient wet mix. So - downgrade it gently...bit by bit, maybe at 48 hour intervals. 

I am genuinely not normally of a negative disposition - and if you follow the trail of my weather posts in winter for many years I will see snow whenever there is snow. But at the moment I'm looking at 2 more weeks of unremarkable, maybe slightly below average given the jet angle and cold generally spilling out to lower latitudes courtesy of the SSW - but no significant reversal of the flow. There is a chance then of lagged impacts from next week's MJO phase 7 hitting in mid Feb around school half term week - but we have to place this within the context of a season when such moments previously have not produced anything of note. Can this SSW still deliver? Of course - potentially we could have a very cold last half of Feb if everything clicks as we have expected it to - but for the next 10 days we slip now into another holding pattern and the suspicion has to be that whatever has conspired to break cold chances this winter so far will continue to do so.

I hope that is a cue for the coldest latter half of Feb on record. i'd happily wipe the egg off my face and reveal the grin underneath. 

Bang on cue - 48 hours later another watering down in the text. Best enjoy whatever comes this week as much as possible - February now set to be unremarkable as a whole given failed signals plus MetO models. A real shame - this winter had so much promise.

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8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Basically they have no idea, how surprising. Pin the tail on the donkey.

This is a very valid point, we rightly big up the Met Office as the Pro's and always want them on board, but the reality is, they are no better at forecasting medium to long term weather prospects in non +AO/+NAO environments then anyone else.

These islands are but specks on the surface on the earth making forecasting very difficult in non zonal years.

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To be honest these LRF are pointless , a complete waste of time and energy 

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12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Bang on cue - 48 hours later another watering down in the text. Best enjoy whatever comes this week as much as possible - February now set to be unremarkable as a whole given failed signals plus MetO models. A real shame - this winter had so much promise.

Thing is catacol how much faith can we put in these updates! How many times have they made a complete pigs ear of it? People still bring up the infamous bbq summer prediction, I also recall the heatwave of June 2017 which lasted 5days, at that stage a met office spokes person pointed out it would be a summer of long dry hot spells!! Wrong!! Didn't there predictions for 09/10 state a milder than average winter, some of the background signals you have been pointing out for so long could still deliver!! The big freeze in USA 2017 December, I remember a lot of the met guys were saying, only a matter of time before it returns, but it never did with that kind of intensity!! Proof that LRF is still very much an infancy, anything can and will still happen, keep the faith catacol love Reading your informative posts 

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The met office chief forecaster, hoping nobody notices the subtle downgrades on their atrocious forecast...

giphy.gif

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They have included easterly winds or cold to very cold in the last month of updates since around December 14th I believe (bookmarked the outlook as it was very bullish on very cold easterly in new year) and yet we are no closer to the very cold easterly they predicted, I’m not calling them out to flame them because the forecasts are impossible but why believe this when they’ve been wrong with this update all winter?

Find it particularly annoying that people take these updates like they are written by God’s that control the weather 🙄

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

They have included easterly winds or cold to very cold in the last month of updates since around December 14th I believe (bookmarked the outlook as it was very bullish on very cold easterly in new year) and yet we are no closer to the very cold easterly they predicted, I’m not calling them out to flame them because the forecasts are impossible but why believe this when they’ve been wrong with this update all winter?

Find it particularly annoying that people take these updates like they are written by God’s that control the weather 🙄

well quite plainly their models were indicating strong downwelling waves which led to easterlies for us and now they don't.  so you are asking us to rely on a 'hopecast' that they could be wrong as opposed to a model that was actually showing cold. fwiw, the outlook is progged more blocked than it has for a fair while - scandi, scriceland, griceland, greeny or possibly …...sceuro

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

They have included easterly winds or cold to very cold in the last month of updates since around December 14th I believe (bookmarked the outlook as it was very bullish on very cold easterly in new year) and yet we are no closer to the very cold easterly they predicted, I’m not calling them out to flame them because the forecasts are impossible but why believe this when they’ve been wrong with this update all winter?

Find it particularly annoying that people take these updates like they are written by God’s that control the weather 🙄

They do seem to have been calling it forever to be fair, i don't know if that's just a perception and i assumed it would come quicker because i was thinking 2 weeks downwelling, or whether its true, but you do get a feeling it has read more like a Daily Express forecast for a long time now, and you know how much stick they get.........

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

well quite plainly their models were indicating strong downwelling waves which led to easterlies for us and now they don't.  so you are asking us to rely on a 'hopecast' that they could be wrong as opposed to a model that was actually showing cold. fwiw, the outlook is progged more blocked than it has for a fair while - scandi, scriceland, griceland, greeny or possibly …...sceuro

Quite possibly so, I’m not asking anyone to hopecast anything, I think far too much credence is put in these 16/30 day outlooks I’ve said that for a while, I read them more out of curiosity than actually being that bothered by what they put out.

And yes Feb, obviously they were getting strong signals that have failed to come to fruition, let’s not forget the 6-15 day period now includes a very cold mention so maybe things are actually moving forward out of this update for the first time this winter?

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They have always been careful with there wording, And from what I read every update was low confidence/chance of very cold Easterlys. Given how fast a SSW can change the weather at the surface I don't see an issue, The timing of the downwhelling/where has been the issue and very difficult to predict.. But what with the chance of severe cold it would be silly not to mention it.. The further outlook has been very good, So unless you skip it/ignore it and only look at the 16/30 extended then I can understand why some may feel let down. They have done a great job this Winter and I'm sure it will continue for the rest of it.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Sorry their LRF has been very poor. No better than the good old folk who read the models in here. People have been saying in here all week that they cannot see were they are getting this forecast as the models are not really showing it, however they must have better info than us clearly etc etc etc etc. But alas they have now backtracked so for me their long range has been shocking. 

Edited by Neiller22

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anymore pushing back of the easterlies by the met and this thread will belong in the lounge with all the other comical threads, I agree met have been as useful as the october Fog index lol

Edited by lassie23

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Bang on cue - 48 hours later another watering down in the text. Best enjoy whatever comes this week as much as possible - February now set to be unremarkable as a whole given failed signals plus MetO models. A real shame - this winter had so much promise.

MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?

 

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Well they have not completed dropped the idea have they I’m backing them with even colder weather in to February.🤣

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Thing is catacol how much faith can we put in these updates! How many times have they made a complete pigs ear of it? People still bring up the infamous bbq summer prediction, I also recall the heatwave of June 2017 which lasted 5days, at that stage a met office spokes person pointed out it would be a summer of long dry hot spells!! Wrong!! Didn't there predictions for 09/10 state a milder than average winter, some of the background signals you have been pointing out for so long could still deliver!! The big freeze in USA 2017 December, I remember a lot of the met guys were saying, only a matter of time before it returns, but it never did with that kind of intensity!! Proof that LRF is still very much an infancy, anything can and will still happen, keep the faith catacol love Reading your informative posts 

What you say is valid enough in theory - but in practice I think it misses the point. The forecast by all of those who saw the winter as particularly cold was based on vortex disruption allied with a pattern of pacific forcing that, going into winter, looked favourable. However the downwell has not managed to produce an easterly surge on the trop, and so we have quite a meriodional pattern globally (see the significant current US trough) but without blocking transpiring for any length of time at high latitude. Given that the peak of this SSW signal will be in the next week to 10 days the fact that NWP is now resolving to a pattern that is not taking the bait in terms of blocking makes it rather counter intuitive to assume that the pattern will peak once the forcing starts to subside later in the month. I'm not saying that this cannot happen - anything in weather is possible in theory - but the odds swing against it.

Add to that the reality that we are entering the most beneficial section of the current MJO cycle, and still no major signal for a cold high lat block. Later in Feb that is also likely to move back towards less favourable phases and therefore hard to see an initiation of blocking in that context.

Is it possible that a Siberian high might establish and retrogress given some indications of this for mid Feb? Yes - of course. It is possible. The Met's text makes that very clear in the wording that this is possible....but note that they make it clear that their models are suggesting this possibility is fading. 

What I'm trying to say is that we had a definite window of opportunity around mid Jan and into early Feb to see a pattern establish that could then SUSTAIN through February and maybe beyond....but if it doesnt establish before mid Feb then it gets harder to see how it initiates a deep cold pattern after that. Dont get me wrong - your statement is correct in so far as I could end up talking utter rubbish here and be proved wrong - and i'll happily wipe that egg off my face and celebrate with the best of coldies....but I dont see it.

And the gradually downgrading Met forecast - which is exactly how you play it if your models suddenly about face but you dont want to look daft - reinforces it for me. And given the SSW progression and MJO cycle as we have it, I dont see a sudden reversal back to a better pattern. Once again it is counter intuitive.

I'll be posting less from now on unless an unexpected major change occurs - but I'll certainly be producing an analysis at the end of things in around 4/5 weeks's time (assuming no sudden Beast arrival!!) which will look back but also look forward to the next winter season. I'm interested in the fact that we have had 2 extreme SSWs within 10 months of each other and wondering whether this is luck or a reflection of signals that are aligning at the moment to produce a run of years where our chances of SSWs increases. Where does low solar fit....and how does the pacific profile this season suggest things may develop next year? What is the likely QBO setup?

Lots of winter left: 4 - 6 weeks is a long time in weather terms. Hoping things may change, but my mindset as definitely altered from expectation to hope. 

Edited by Catacol

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Bang on cue - 48 hours later another watering down in the text. Best enjoy whatever comes this week as much as possible - February now set to be unremarkable as a whole given failed signals plus MetO models. A real shame - this winter had so much promise.

MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?

 

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Back in the 1980s I wrote a detailed paper on the accuracy of the BBC forecast that followed the 9pm news. I came up with my own method and corresponded with them, particularly Jim Bacon. I can't remember the way round but my figures and theirs were 85% and 87%. Thus my method seemed to work. My gut feel is that accuracy is currently suffering - climate change - man made or otherwise? Something is different. Not extremes such as in the States or Australia but something. I don't still have my methodology but it would have been fun to run the exact same test.

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I just think they’ve reached a limit with the data available to them from stations and balloons vs computing power. The computing power is available, but the quantity of readings required from the real world to reach the next level in understanding the atmosphere enough to generate knew models are impractical and expensive at the moment. 

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 I must say I am not at all surprised by the Met Office downgrade it was inevitable all the background signals failed big time question is how much do we know about the signal the answer is not much because there has not been much research into them but anyway down  Gread  from the Met today  was like a kick in the teeth let’s hope we learnt a valuable lesson this winter and not rely on those background signals much for next winter 

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10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

What you say is valid enough in theory - but in practice I think it misses the point. The forecast by all of those who saw the winter as particularly cold was based on vortex disruption allied with a pattern of pacific forcing that, going into winter, looked favourable. However the downwell has not managed to produce an easterly surge on the trop, and so we have quite a meriodional pattern globally (see the significant current US trough) but without blocking transpiring for any length of time at high latitude. Given that the peak of this SSW signal will be in the next week to 10 days the fact that NWP is now resolving to a pattern that is not taking the bait in terms of blocking makes it rather counter intuitive to assume that the pattern will peak once the forcing starts to subside later in the month. I'm not saying that this cannot happen - anything in weather is possible in theory - but the odds swing against it.

Add to that the reality that we are entering the most beneficial section of the current MJO cycle, and still no major signal for a cold high lat block. Later in Feb that is also likely to move back towards less favourable phases and therefore hard to see an initiation of blocking in that context.

Is it possible that a Siberian high might establish and retrogress given some indications of this for mid Feb? Yes - of course. It is possible. The Met's text makes that very clear in the wording that this is possible....but note that they make it clear that their models are suggesting this possibility is fading. 

What I'm trying to say is that we had a definite window of opportunity around mid Jan and into early Feb to see a pattern establish that could then SUSTAIN through February and maybe beyond....but if it doesnt establish before mid Feb then it gets harder to see how it initiates a deep cold pattern after that. Dont get me wrong - your statement is correct in so far as I could end up talking utter rubbish here and be proved wrong - and i'll happily wipe that egg off my face and celebrate with the best of coldies....but I dont see it.

And the gradually downgrading Met forecast - which is exactly how you play it if your models suddenly about face but you dont want to look daft - reinforces it for me. And given the SSW progression and MJO cycle as we have it, I dont see a sudden reversal back to a better pattern. Once again it is counter intuitive.

I'll be posting less from now on unless an unexpected major change occurs - but I'll certainly be producing an analysis at the end of things in around 4/5 weeks's time (assuming no sudden Beast arrival!!) which will look back but also look forward to the next winter season. I'm interested in the fact that we have had 2 extreme SSWs within 10 months of each other and wondering whether this is luck or a reflection of signals that are aligning at the moment to produce a run of years where our chances of SSWs increases. Where does low solar fit....and how does the pacific profile this season suggest things may develop next year? What is the likely QBO setup?

Lots of winter left: 4 - 6 weeks is a long time in weather terms. Hoping things may change, but my mindset as definitely altered from expectation to hope. 

Great points as usual, and the thinking of your SSW prognosis is a valid point, low solar activity for one. It could also be a naturally occurring situation of several coming together all at once, on the other hand, the extra heat being generated around the globe, be it man made or naturally occurring climate change could also be a big factor. Like you say, 2 inside a year! Especially has they say several inside a decade is common, but if you were to achieve 3 inside a couple  of years, wow!! 

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

What you say is valid enough in theory - but in practice I think it misses the point. The forecast by all of those who saw the winter as particularly cold was based on vortex disruption allied with a pattern of pacific forcing that, going into winter, looked favourable. However the downwell has not managed to produce an easterly surge on the trop, and so we have quite a meriodional pattern globally (see the significant current US trough) but without blocking transpiring for any length of time at high latitude. Given that the peak of this SSW signal will be in the next week to 10 days the fact that NWP is now resolving to a pattern that is not taking the bait in terms of blocking makes it rather counter intuitive to assume that the pattern will peak once the forcing starts to subside later in the month. I'm not saying that this cannot happen - anything in weather is possible in theory - but the odds swing against it.

Add to that the reality that we are entering the most beneficial section of the current MJO cycle, and still no major signal for a cold high lat block. Later in Feb that is also likely to move back towards less favourable phases and therefore hard to see an initiation of blocking in that context.

Is it possible that a Siberian high might establish and retrogress given some indications of this for mid Feb? Yes - of course. It is possible. The Met's text makes that very clear in the wording that this is possible....but note that they make it clear that their models are suggesting this possibility is fading. 

What I'm trying to say is that we had a definite window of opportunity around mid Jan and into early Feb to see a pattern establish that could then SUSTAIN through February and maybe beyond....but if it doesnt establish before mid Feb then it gets harder to see how it initiates a deep cold pattern after that. Dont get me wrong - your statement is correct in so far as I could end up talking utter rubbish here and be proved wrong - and i'll happily wipe that egg off my face and celebrate with the best of coldies....but I dont see it.

And the gradually downgrading Met forecast - which is exactly how you play it if your models suddenly about face but you dont want to look daft - reinforces it for me. And given the SSW progression and MJO cycle as we have it, I dont see a sudden reversal back to a better pattern. Once again it is counter intuitive.

I'll be posting less from now on unless an unexpected major change occurs - but I'll certainly be producing an analysis at the end of things in around 4/5 weeks's time (assuming no sudden Beast arrival!!) which will look back but also look forward to the next winter season. I'm interested in the fact that we have had 2 extreme SSWs within 10 months of each other and wondering whether this is luck or a reflection of signals that are aligning at the moment to produce a run of years where our chances of SSWs increases. Where does low solar fit....and how does the pacific profile this season suggest things may develop next year? What is the likely QBO setup?

Lots of winter left: 4 - 6 weeks is a long time in weather terms. Hoping things may change, but my mindset as definitely altered from expectation to hope. 

Hi Catacol

Are your current thoughts for February similar to mine i.e. a similar pattern to what we have now with non exceptional cold spells giving the possibility of short lived snow events for some?

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26 minutes ago, Don said:

Hi Catacol

Are your current thoughts for February similar to mine i.e. a similar pattern to what we have now with non exceptional cold spells giving the possibility of short lived snow events for some?

I think so - yes. It would be absolutely daft to say we cannot see some snow again this winter, and for those in Scotland and on high ground I’m absolutely certain there will be more snow. But when it comes to winter Im greedy. I’m not especially interested in transient stuff, and if there isn’t a block around to disrupt energy properly and get a solid reverse flow then transient is all you get. And all I can see now therefore is average stuff. Yes we might get some easterly days if we get some Scandy blocking in place, but sustained cold and snow looks long odds. Ironically we have a chance of a few hours of moderate snow here in Somerset on Thurs/Fri which I posted a few days ago looked possible. I’m away at a conference so will miss it. You just couldnt script it any better!!!!!!

Im perfectly aware that this puts me in the ranks of UK insane weather nuts.....because how often do we get sustained deep cold? In my memory I’ve probably only seen half a dozen such spells that really sank into my memory. Feb 81 when a child in Glasgow I will never forget. 85, 87, 91, 96, 10.....and some not bad stuff in 09, 12 and 13. 96 to 09 was 12 years of utter cold weather despair. So I’m plenty used to disappointment like most UK snow hunters in the lowland south and I know most years will fail. I’ve listed 8 years in 38 there. Always pretty long odds. I was a bit young to remember 79 unfortunately.

However I’ll keep hunting. I want to be wrong about the rest of this month and next winter I’ll be back looking for deep cold especially as we are hitting the crunch low solar years now for a few. I think we’ve been unlucky so far this winter but we have to live with that and accept UK winter is usually a bust.

So an average month for me now. Not mild - the SSW has delivered on low temps right across the hemisphere so in that regard the forecast has been accurate. However the deep cold has been, and will probably continue to be, elusive. 

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10-day trend

Staying cold
Snow and Ice risk
Less cold next week

Early next week

Spells of wet weather
Could bring snow
Timing critical

Later next week

SW winds most likely
Less cold
Fewer warnings

 

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

I think so - yes. It would be absolutely daft to say we cannot see some snow again this winter, and for those in Scotland and on high ground I’m absolutely certain there will be more snow. But when it comes to winter Im greedy. I’m not especially interested in transient stuff, and if there isn’t a block around to disrupt energy properly and get a solid reverse flow then transient is all you get. And all I can see now therefore is average stuff. Yes we might get some easterly days if we get some Scandy blocking in place, but sustained cold and snow looks long odds. Ironically we have a chance of a few hours of moderate snow here in Somerset on Thurs/Fri which I posted a few days ago looked possible. I’m away at a conference so will miss it. You just couldnt script it any better!!!!!!

Im perfectly aware that this puts me in the ranks of UK insane weather nuts.....because how often do we get sustained deep cold? In my memory I’ve probably only seen half a dozen such spells that really sank into my memory. Feb 81 when a child in Glasgow I will never forget. 85, 87, 91, 96, 10.....and some not bad stuff in 09, 12 and 13. 96 to 09 was 12 years of utter cold weather despair. So I’m plenty used to disappointment like most UK snow hunters in the lowland south and I know most years will fail. I’ve listed 8 years in 38 there. Always pretty long odds. I was a bit young to remember 79 unfortunately.

However I’ll keep hunting. I want to be wrong about the rest of this month and next winter I’ll be back looking for deep cold especially as we are hitting the crunch low solar years now for a few. I think we’ve been unlucky so far this winter but we have to live with that and accept UK winter is usually a bust.

So an average month for me now. Not mild - the SSW has delivered on low temps right across the hemisphere so in that regard the forecast has been accurate. However the deep cold has been, and will probably continue to be, elusive. 

Thanks Catacol

If we can't have sustained northern blocking, I will be happy with what we have now, although I'm also greedy when it comes to winter!  This winter might not be a 2009/10 but it certainly ain't a 1988/89 either!  Anyway, full analysis at the end of February.

 

Edited by Don

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