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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    51 minutes ago, Don said:

    We will just have to wait and see.  However, the recent trend is not good.

    Yes, the gfs has also trended the wrong way. Maybe a delay in the proper cold by a week or so.

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

    So will they stick with there cold very cold later part of next week or will go bust..

    To be honest, the pattern is looking so fluid that what they say is not that relevant. Best to stick with following the models on coming days to see where they take us.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Yes, the gfs has also trended the wrong way. Maybe a delay in the proper cold by a week or so.

    hope so, but increases uncertainty, was a bit early I think for a beast, no downgrade on models at all, if we can guarantee beast in 2 weeks, or later even better

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Yes, the gfs has also trended the wrong way. Maybe a delay in the proper cold by a week or so.

    Trouble is my patience is wearing thin now for this winter!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    14 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    So will they stick with there cold very cold later part of next week or will go bust..

    I suspect todays outlook will be similar, but if the downgrades continue, expect a change in tomorrow’s update.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well we will find out very shortly if Exeter are going to go with their own model, i suspect not TBH..

    Although i do feel they will continue to highlight a cyclonic cold pattern generally with snow across the North, esp with elevation..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, Don said:

    I suspect todays outlook will be similar, but if the downgrades continue, expect a change in tomorrow’s update.

    That's my guess too, they don't tend to do knee-jerk changes, especially after a major pivot to cold yesterday.  Which means it won't tell us anything!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

    Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely. Later on Friday, rain preceded by snow may arrive in the far west and northwest, accompanied by strengthening winds. During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. However, some wet and windy weather is likely in the northwest, which may briefly spread further southeast giving some snow on encountering the colder air.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2019 to Sunday 17 Feb 2019:

    The northwest of the British Isles may see changeable conditions at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, it should become drier, brighter but colder here as the period unfolds. Meanwhile further southeast some bright, quiet periods are expected but with some wintry showers too, the detail of which is very uncertain. It is likely to be cold or very cold, and as a result widespread, locally severe frosts are on the cards. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder, wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring an associated risk of significant snow and ice at times.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Collapse to UK high?

    Does look like they over-egged it yesterday then.  Mind you, so did we! ?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Still sounds very good to me. Still going with cold/very cold north to north east winds and several chances for snow.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Collapse to UK high?

    Does look like they over-egged it yesterday then.  Mind you, so did we! ?

    Moreso than previous .... euro trough ??????.not close enough by the look of it on that

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Noteworthy that they say this coming Thu-Fri 'will see' (a very cold N to NE airstream) as opposed to 'looks likely to see' or 'might see' - either that's an oversight by whoever did the updating, or their in-house modelling has remained a lot steadier than ECM and GFS this morning.

    Longer-term, 'very cold' is usually reserved for when severe conditions are being indicated with unusually high probability. I'm stocking up on tinned goods already, just to be safe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Moreso than previous .... euro trough ??????.not close enough by the look of it on that

    Not sure getting confused ?‍♂️. The ecm does not have N to NE winds end of the week . And staying cold to very cold is not on the ecm . Do you reckon the ecm has gone to far Nick and it will pull slightly back west . Obviously not all the way back to the outputs we’ve been seeing ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

    It's clear the UKMO are just going with a blend of their own model for now. If the 12z continue to be poor and become more consistent in backing away from the colder air, then I suspect it will change again tomorrow. As the mention of E winds and coastal snow showers has been removed, I suspect they are also backing away from the Easterly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    How does a cold or very cold north/northeasterly airstream give rain or snow at this time of the year?  I would have thought it would be snow all the way?  Unless they are referring to coastal districts ref rain?

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