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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This sounds like an update which coincides with stormy weather with cold air in situ but mild sectors getting caught up in passing lows. How large these mild sectors will be is uncertain so how disruptive any snow proves to be uncertain until this is resolved.

That is how I interpret the update anyway.

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2 hours ago, weirpig said:

To be honest if i lived in the south or southwest  i would think its game over every winter.  very difficult to sustain snow down there. 

Lived in the west county all my life and have experienced numerous awesome snow events with snow on the ground for days, got old photos somewhere from Dec 81, a foot of snow at sea level just a few miles from the bristol channel coast, that's the main one to stick in my mind but can also remember the school being closed on many occasions through the 80s (just one reason why I loved snow as a kid lol) due to heavy snowfall so your opinion of this part of the county doesn't match what I've experienced living here for over 40 years. Do we get less than areas further north, yes of course but I got no complaints living here as a fan of cold & snow, either it snows  in winter or it don't. I think it was from 2009 to the 2012/2013 where we had at least one decent snow event every winter and I thought we were on a roll, that was until  the awful winter of 2013/2014 arrived! 

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1 minute ago, Big Dave said:

LOL!

I rather suspect someone might have broken the unwritten rules and told friends and family snow was coming!  

It's getting colder and snow is on the way

 

2 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

LOL!

I rather suspect someone might have broken the unwritten rules and told friends and family snow was coming!  

 

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Sorry but as I read it i would call it a downgrade..

Over the past 4 weeks it has been earmarked for a increasing risk of much colder weather with chances of snow increasing. Now let’s face facts 90% of us don’t live up a hill in northern england or further north with serious elevation (good luck to those that do). We are all seeking countrywide low level snow. Now I believe that is down to little or no blocking being picked up in the mid to long term output. People associate a ssw with blocking however thus far we have seen little or no evidence of this happening and influencing our weather. Those who have said ‘Wedges make Sledges’ may be right but imo no it’s laughable because these ‘Wedges’ do not give the majority of the uk a shot at prolonged cold which is what imo 100% of all winter weather enthusiasts seek.

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2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Lived in the west county all my life and have experienced numerous awesome snow events with snow on the ground for days, got old photos somewhere from Dec 81, a foot of snow at sea level just a few miles from the bristol channel coast, that's the main one to stick in my mind but can also remember the school being closed on many occasions through the 80s (just one reason why I loved snow as a kid lol) due to heavy snowfall so your opinion of this part of the county doesn't match what I've experienced living here for over 40 years. Do we get less than areas further north, yes of course but I got no complaints living here as a fan of cold & snow, either it snows  in winter or it don't. I think it was from 2009 to the 2012/2013 where we had at least one decent snow event every winter and I thought we were on a roll, that was until  the awful winter of 2013/2014 arrived! 

I live in Brighton, it was epic 2009, 2010, 2012 and we even hit jackpot in March 2013 I think it was. Jackpot is playing in the snow on Brighton beach in March. We’ve had some great snow! 

Met O isn’t going to mention any favourable easterly that will pop up in the LRF because they don’t know about it yet.

Also they can’t mention anything that will trigger our old folk and outdoor workers at this range.

This Brightonian is not throwing anything out of the Pram just yet ️ 

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its flipped, not necessarily to a mild outlook - but to a more average one.

I can confirm that is completely FALSE! GloSea has not flipped!! 

That is the wrong information 

image.thumb.png.20fac059ec86705506485e80ab393e05.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Woah!  What the heck went on in here today?

Just my humble opinion but the chances of a cold and possibly quite snowy spell have increased today based solely on the extended Met Office outlook.

Talk of rain turning to snow.  Increased risk of snow to low levels and for the first time talk of disruptive snow.

Yes there is the possibility of milder weather getting into the South at times but this only increases the chances of a big snow event surely?!

Lovely wintry update from the Met.  Lets hope for more upgrades.  Bring it on!

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I expect they will continue to fence sit somewhat but the ‘v cold’ wording could return today for early feb  ........

It has only done so on the BBC to a 25% extent, as the MO don't like % forecasting - if it does, they will just call it low probability and you rarely see a MO extended 'low' horse come in.

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UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:

Cold and sometimes very cold weather will still be in place for the extended outlook. It will be changeable though, especially at first, with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts will be common and widespread. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there will be a higher risk than usual of snow at lower levels, even in the south. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. With easterly winds predominating, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest. Short milder and wetter interludes are possible too, most likely in the south, but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

Cold weather will predominate throughout and Monday will start with a widespread frost. Most places will probably be dry and bright during the day but rain showers are likely in the southeast at first. It will be windy in northwest Scotland, with blustery showers and further snow on hills. The showers may well spread further south and east on Tuesday. These are likely to bring hill snow to many areas, and perhaps some snow at low levels for a time. The timing of this is quite uncertain though. Unsettled and generally cold weather will continue, bringing rain, sleet and sometimes snow. Snow is possible anywhere but more likely over northern and eastern areas and over high ground. Overnight frosts remain likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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