Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Meto Uk Further Outlook


Recommended Posts

Considering it's for the 30th onwards I'm not too worried yet, but it's starting to worry me. Seems like everytime we appear to be on the cusp of something it suddenly changes. Consider how unreliable they have been so far I am uncertain of what they are actually predicting

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 8.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

Posted Images

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can just tell by the modelling with that PV - it wont be shifted and will just mean mid latt highs - garbage slush fest 2 inches events don't float my boat.

You been on the drink or heavier stuff already mate? You completely ignoring the ECM output at the moment and taking the GFS as gospel? Ridiculous, i’d think better of you you are a very experienced member on here and often see you in the Model thread. 

Besides, you realise this update is for the period starting in FIFTEEN DAYS time? Calm it.

 

really shocking prospects these

74DF31A6-E762-4050-AB93-18EA3F7B0AF7.png

0CDA79D8-7494-4B96-B9EA-81E5DB187A8F.png

F718D90E-CA09-435D-9D13-F4A113281719.png

Edited by Weathizard
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Weathizard said:

You been on the drink or heavier stuff already mate? You completely ignoring the ECM output at the moment and taking the GFS as gospel? Ridiculous, i’d think better of you you are a very experienced member on here and often see you in the Model thread. 

Besides, you realise this update is for the period starting in FIFTEEN DAYS time? Calm it.

Yes we were hoping for a block but actually now im thinking the strat downwelling never looked likely to deliver it ever, i now lament myself for bowing to vastly more knowledgeable people on the strat than myself, perhaps i need to actually start trusting my own instinct more.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes we were hoping for a block but actually now im thinking the strat downwelling never looked likely to deliver it ever, i now lament myself for bowing to vastly more knowledgeable people on the strat than myself, perhaps i need to actually start trusting my own instinct more.

So you’re completely discounting the EPS and ECM? Don’t get so hung up on these updates, it’s literally a forecast just like the rest of us can produce, the GLOSEA is just another weather model equally flawed as the rest. I’m amazed someone who watches models like you do is saying game over for a period that starts in 15 days time, but as you were.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

So you’re completely discounting the EPS and ECM? Don’t get so hung up on these updates, it’s literally a forecast just like the rest of us can produce, the GLOSEA is just another weather model equally flawed as the rest. I’m amazed someone who watches models like you do is saying game over for a period that starts in 15 days time, but as you were.

But he could be correct yes????personally I think we we will arrive at a cold period but im not certain

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Weathizard said:

So you’re completely discounting the EPS and ECM? Don’t get so hung up on these updates, it’s literally a forecast just like the rest of us can produce, the GLOSEA is just another weather model equally flawed as the rest. I’m amazed someone who watches models like you do is saying game over for a period that starts in 15 days time, but as you were.

ECM 0z questionable in the lower strat - see bluearmy's post in strat thread, its over for this next few weeks - its not over for the rest of winter but if we dont get a scandi high in early - mid feb then we are looking at last knock ins - i don't mind a belting in March but most people on here don't like those.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

So you’re completely discounting the EPS and ECM? Don’t get so hung up on these updates, it’s literally a forecast just like the rest of us can produce, the GLOSEA is just another weather model equally flawed as the rest. I’m amazed someone who watches models like you do is saying game over for a period that starts in 15 days time, but as you were.

Not really 'just like the rest of us can produce' no...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the uncertainty, the MO are just covering all bases. They have always maintained that milder air may make inroads to parts of the south - usually indicative of waves of low pressure moving along the channel. This is a good thing if you want frontal snow... 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 0z questionable in the lower strat - see bluearmy's post in strat thread, its over for this next few weeks - its not over for the rest of winter but if we dont get a scandi high in early - mid feb then we are looking at last knock ins - i don't mind a belting in March but most people on here don't like those.

Tbh a lot of folk have been expecting epic cold,northern blocking and a lot of snow.we in Sheffield have had zero and its mid january.that is poor during any winter.All the background signals in the world guarantee nothing in reality.lets hope we get a good spell of wintry weather over the coming weeks .

Edited by swfc
Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading into it feels like a 'watering down' of any cold to be honest...for a continuation the MetO 30 dayer was wording cold conditions with frost, fog and snow (certainly in the north) and as we've got nearer to that period (last 10 days of January) it looks like it is veering away from it to a degree. Doesn't surprise me as the MetO 30 dayer has been poor this late Autumn/Winter with regards to forecasting cold or other weather, so who knows we might see an upgrade again in the coming day or week or so but I have little faith in these 30 dayers. So don't get hung up on them!

Edited by Froze were the Days
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME OVER!

 

 

This is why you should take anything anyone forecasts or tells you with a pinch of salt and go with the here and now! 

I'm inclined too to jump on the game over side of the fence, with all the cold air shooting into Easten Europe's extremeties due to the firing jet out of Canada, but I look at the date - 15th January, tells me there's still time for some changes. As I've said before, the Meto do have access to some good models but they ultimately aren't that much more clued up than we are with nailing the longer term foreseeable on the head. Some on here religiously study and worshop their forecasts however... it is funny.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

If we get nothing then this will be the most hyped up/ disappointing event of all time for the wx community

Oh I don't know about that, there are a number to choose from.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And even if i do get a dumping in the North, i am talking the Uk as a whole, these threads are UK threads and not IMBY threads, i am talking the UK as a whole and not just isolated dumpings.

But its very rare you will see UK wide dumpings? There are virtually always winners and losers..

I do hear you ?

like i said, EC46 EC EC eps look good..

Lets see where we are tomorrow..

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mountain shadow said:

If I lived in the South or South West of England I would certainly be thinking that it's game over for Winter in terms of decent snow spell. 

To be honest if i lived in the south or southwest  i would think its game over every winter.  very difficult to sustain snow down there. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

But its very rare you will see UK wide dumpings? There are virtually always winners and losers..

I do hear you ?

like i said, EC46 EC EC eps look good..

Lets see where we are tomorrow..

I wonder if the EC46 will maintain its position on Thursday now, i suspect not with the blocking signal and longjevity, not unless GLOSEA has a sudden backtrack again.

Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This covers the next 15 days, so unlikely that there will be a widespread cold/snowy period during this time frame. The Winter of manyana, manyana continues.

i fear that even the mighty Glosea/EC46 have failed to model the slow SSW downwelling. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Knew it once that damn glosea had backtracked - we need another SSW in mid feb now with a quick downwelling so we can have another crack late Feb / Early March.

Which Glosea update is this as the January update had lots of northern blocking?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

This covers the next 15 days, so unlikely that there will be a widespread cold/snowy period during this time frame. The Winter of manyana, manyana continues.

i fear that even the mighty Glosea/EC46 have failed to model the slow SSW downwelling. 

Really ?? You deduced that from this outlook ??

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Really starting to wonder if I will see any snow IMBY this winter now........

I wouldn't be holding out much hope now.

My feeling is that we don't get a proper Greenie or Scandi block and allied with the euro trough the air just won't be cold enough for snow in Southern England, however, parts of the North and North East might do extremely well.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...