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Can I just ask as politely as possible, but why do people hang on every changing daily long range forecast? I just find it odd that's all! 

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7 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Can I just ask as politely as possible, but why do people hang on every changing daily long range forecast? I just find it odd that's all! 

Because they’re nuts .......

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14 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Can I just ask as politely as possible, but why do people hang on every changing daily long range forecast? I just find it odd that's all! 

Because, they are professional forecasters and if they thought there was the merest hint of proper cold spell in the next month, they would say so, and they don't.

 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Because they’re nuts .......

No, we're sensible.

I can see as well as any the positives in the model output, yet the Met Office don't, why is that?

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because, they are professional forecasters and if they thought there was the merest hint of proper cold spell in the next month, they would say so, and they don't.

The models only show a 3-4-day spell of colder, quiet stuff anyway. At least when one resists the temptation to post Perturbation X...?

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Because they’re nuts .......

Hopefully that was said in jest, otherwise my estimation of your inputs drops to zero!

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Because, they are professional forecasters and if they thought there was the merest hint of proper cold spell in the next month, they would say so, and they don't.

 

Agreed.

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I would say it's mostly a case that they know that once we go beyond five days eventually the forecast becomes as reliable as a Jelly stuck to the ceiling.

It always interesting how they change from day to day

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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Hopefully that was said in jest, otherwise my estimation of your inputs drops to zero!

Bluearmy is one of the most sensible, level headed posters on here. I'm sure it was in jest but he does have a point, some people completely overreact to anything contained in the forecast that doesn't say we are heading into the freezer. Even the experts at the Met can only offer a guidance of probabilities at that range, whatever they say is liable to change whether it be cold or mild. 

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UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2018:

Showers may affect the north and east on Sunday, whilst in the south and west there may be some more persistent rain for a time. Strong winds will also affect the northeast and southwest on Sunday. During the rest of this period some prolonged drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds, especially early next week. Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east, but also a chance of some snow in the north and west and possibly wintry showers in the east. Some unsettled milder spells are likely, more especially from late next week onwards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

This period may start with some settled, drier and colder weather, with overnight frosts and fog. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty through the rest of the month, as Christmas approaches we may see a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with spells of wetter and milder weather affecting many parts of the UK, and with a risk of gales at times. Any snow associated with these wet spells is more likely to be confined to hills in the north. Temperatures whilst starting below normal or cold, are likely to recover to be above average at times, with fewer frosty nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

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METO bit behind the times in their latest update then😯

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UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 19 Dec 2018:

Next week starts generally settled, especially so in the west, whilst scattered showers are likely in the east where they could be wintry at times. From mid week onwards the weather pattern becomes slow moving, with easterly winds developing and bringing showers to many parts, these possibly wintry away from coastal areas. Overnight frosts and patchy freezing fog are also likely at times. Any wet and windy weather is likely to be confined to the west and northwest, although rain may affect the south at times, bringing with it a risk of hill snow. Temperatures generally rather cold or cold, perhaps milder at times in the west, as well as in any brief unsettled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Dec 2018 to Thursday 3 Jan 2019:

This period is likely to start with a mixture of weather, with spells of settled, drier and colder conditions with overnight frost and fog, but also with a chance of occasional bouts of windy and showery weather bringing a risk of snow. By Christmas and through the last week of December there is a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with western areas seeing spells of windy, wet and milder weather, with the best of any drier but colder weather the east and south. By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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The Met Office forecast shouts to me - a predominantly southerly tracking jetstream for the weeks ahead, low pressure and fronts stalling and disrupting to our SW, against consistent heights to our north east. Battleground scenario territory - which could mean some very marked temp contrasts from SW to NE, where the lines are drawn potential for significant wintry mix of precipitation - anywhere with height on the boundary could see copious amounts of snow. Subtle shifts in position of the frontal features will result in very different conditions either side. A very interesting month ahead I feel, with a constant tug of war between cold and mild, and the cold gaining the upper hand mostly away from far SW and W.

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Seems like they're changing the forecast ever so slightly which like others have said weather fronts sliding the west/South West .. seems like originally the north was also going to get systems but with this changed To West them this will be ideal for all of us

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An excellent update !!

Pushing back the mild wet and windy weather!!

Hopefully Beeb outlook i think its updated tonight will be similar and a move away from mondays horror story. 🙂

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

An excellent update !!

Pushing back the mild wet and windy weather!!

Hopefully Beeb outlook i think its updated tonight will be similar and a move away from mondays horror story. 🙂

Indeed mate, and the first signs of an update for January suggesting a less-likely occurrence of Atlantic-driven weather. 

Yesterday said, "temperatures likely to recover above average", and today's "signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather".

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