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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Either way, it's quite a ridiculous update if you ask me! No model agreement at +96 never mind later next week. Far to bullish and they could come out with egg on their faces! Perhaps it's a punt that they hope will come off given they've just lost a huge contract, then they can shout from the roof tops that they said it first. Probably worth the risk in the grand scheme of things! 

Ha Ha I doubt very much that the UK MET would take a punt on a forecast they hope will come off so they can say they said it first.  They are a professional organisation with access to much more data than we have. They are calling it cold because that is what the information they have to hand is pointing towards. If it was pointing to mild they would changed their forecast......

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Just now, Bottled Snow said:

Ha Ha I doubt very much that the UK MET would take a punt on a forecast they hope will come off so they can say they said it first.  They are a professional organisation with access to much more data than we have. They are calling it cold because that is what the information they have to hand is pointing towards. If it was pointing to mild they would changed their forecast......

Well, when your bottom line (££$$) is all that really matters, decisions have to be taken above the level of forecasters, call it a strategy if you like. So although it's probably the more favoured outcome hence why they've weighed towards it, I still think there is an element of punting going on! Way to much detail in their forecast so far ahead, when usually they caveat all the long range forecasts historically.

Call me a cynic if you like, it's just my take on it.  

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well, when your bottom line (££$$) is all that really matters, decisions have to be taken above the level of forecasters, call it a strategy if you like. So although it's probably the more favoured outcome hence why they've weighed towards it, I still think there is an element of punting going on! Way to much detail in their forecast so far ahead, when usually they caveat all the long range forecasts historically.

Call me a cynic if you like, it's just my take on it.  

Fair enough everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just would not see them making a forecast for the reasons you outlined. Yes every forecast is a punt as such but based on the best information to hand. In 2012 they were very much on the fence whether it would turn very cold or remain very mild. As it turned out the cold and snow reached the east while the west was mild. This time they are much more bullish and state that it 'May' turn milder at times in the west so a higher liklihood that cold will win out this time in my opinion....all will be revealed in due couse ....

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Just now, Bottled Snow said:

Fair enough everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just would not see them making a forecast for the reasons you outlined. Yes every forecast is a punt as such but based on the best information to hand. In 2012 they were very much on the fence whether it would turn very cold or remain very mild. As it turned out the cold and snow reached the east while the west was mild. This time they are much more bullish and state that it 'May' turn milder at times in the west so a higher liklihood that cold will win out this time in my opinion....all will be revealed in due couse ....

good debate anyway, cheers :hi:and in the correct thread lol

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

good debate anyway, cheers :hi:and in the correct thread lol

you could argue that the longer term is easier to predict as the warming will have worked its magic and weakened/smashed up the Canadian vortex.

there is also a bit of a disconnect between looking at the six day ukmo and the further outlook which mentions snow possibilities into the following week. they aren't committing re the timing of a cold push. but yes, still watch the next run between your fingers !

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Feb 2018 to Friday 2 Mar 2018:

Dry, but often bright weather is likely across the UK throughout the second half of the week, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop, with the potential for some significant snowfalls, most likely focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Mar 2018 to Saturday 17 Mar 2018:

In the beginning of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

By looking at this South East England is in for very cold snowy weather..:yahoo:

it say as well The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain 

so might not happen like that 

 

Edited by Stuart
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1 minute ago, Stuart said:

it say as well The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain 

so might not happen like that 

 

I no that very encouraging they  mention southern England South East England 

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I no that very encouraging they  mention southern England South East England 

 

yes but it could mean down east of the UK as well let see what tommorw update bring

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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes we do . There sticking to there guns . Exciting stuff ?

Having read it again and compared it to yesterday they mentioned MUCH colder, today, just colder.

Might sound like nit picking but i wonder if theres a bit of edge betting beginning to appear..

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Having read it again and compared it to yesterday they mentioned MUCH colder, today, just colder.

Might sound like nit picking but i wonder if theres a bit of edge betting beginning to appear..

Another difference is that they added the northwest in the areas with milder weather, yesterday it was just the west. This indicates Atlantic activity between Scotland and Iceland which is not very good for a full blown easterly. So i see some slow backtracks in the met office update. It could have been a lot worse though so let's see what the 12z's will bring.

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As the BBC weather update on twitter says, it's very much up in the air as to what to expect.

Considering that the diversion starts from MONDAY, only 72 hours away, I'm not surprised they haven't changed it much. If it's still there (more or less) on Monday pm then I might start getting a little bit excited! (coldie perspective)

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Met Office have just released this in the past few minutes https://t.co/AottfpTb2f

'There is increasing confidence that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK, increasing the risk of easterly wind and significant snow.

Prof Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January and in the last few days we have seen a dramatic rise in air temperature, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, at around 30km above the North Pole. This warming results from a breakdown of the usual high-altitude westerly winds and it often leads to a switch in our weather: with cold easterly conditions more likely to dominate subsequent UK weather.”

These events are well reproduced and can be predicted in our computer models and although there is still uncertainty around the outcome of this particular event, there is an increased risk of cold conditions in the latter part of February, including the possibility of heavy snowfall.'

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UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Feb 2018 to Saturday 3 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells throughout the second half of the week, with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most by the end of the week, with wind from the east or southeast. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east/southeast. Over next weekend and following week there is an increase chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. The location and timing of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Mar 2018 to Sunday 18 Mar 2018:

In the beginning of March, it is likely to stay cold for most with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of winds originating from continental Europe, which could bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall, especially in eastern and southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK, but this is currently very uncertain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Feb 2018 to Saturday 3 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells throughout the second half of the week, with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most by the end of the week, with wind from the east or southeast. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east/southeast. Over next weekend and following week there is an increase chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. The location and timing of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Still going for snow South East England then rest of UK ..:yahoo::yahoo: I really do think South East England in for Severe wintry weather

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12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Still going for snow South East England then rest of UK ..:yahoo::yahoo: I really do think South East England in for Severe wintry weather

Yes, but it's downgraded the words 'significant snowfall' , so it's probably going to be drier than first thought

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