Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2017 to Saturday 11 Feb 2017:

Conditions will remain generally unsettled and milder through the end of next week and into the middle of February. Spells of rain are expected to cross the country, these heavy at times, particularly in northern and western areas, where it will be windy with gales or perhaps severe gales possible. These spells of rain will be interspersed with brighter, showery and occasionally colder conditions. Any snow in this period will be largely restricted to higher ground, although during colder interludes there could be brief wintry showers to lower levels, mainly further north. Temperatures will mostly be milder than average for much of the UK, with temperatures closer to average in Scotland and Northern Ireland where the chance of colder spells is higher.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 3 Feb 2017 to Sunday 12 Feb 2017:

The weather will remain mild but often wet and windy into the middle of February. Friday in particular is likely to be very windy, with gales near coasts and on hills. Spells of rain are expected to cross the country on Friday and subsequent days, particularly in northern and western areas. More windy weather is likely over the following days with gales in prone places. These spells of wind and rain will be interspersed with brighter, showery and occasionally colder conditions. Any snow in this period will be restricted mainly to higher ground, although during colder interludes there could be brief wintry showers to lower levels in the north. Temperatures will probably be milder than average for most of the UK, though occasional night frosts will affect the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Feb 2017 to Monday 13 Feb 2017:

The unsettled conditions are expected to dominate through the weekend, with heavy and persistent rain pushing in from the southwest through Saturday. This will bring strong winds for all, possibly reaching severe gale force towards the southwest. This rain will tend to clear eastwards across the country through Sunday, with temperatures near or above average for most. The unsettled theme is likely to continue through the remainder of the period, with bands of persistent rain followed by brighter and showery conditions. Winds will be strong throughout, with gales possible at times, especially in the west. Although temperatures will be largely mild, there is likely to be some colder spells bringing the risk of wintry showers, mainly in the north

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2017 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2017:

At the start of this period the most likely scenario is for more unsettled weather, with wet and windy spells interspersed with brighter, colder and showery interludes. There is a risk of gales at times, particularly in the west, where the heaviest rainfall is also most likely. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the time of year for most, although with colder interludes more frequent across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Later in February there are signs of a more prolonged colder spell developing, but confidence remains low in the likelihood and details of this development.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2017 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2017:

Unsettled conditions are expected to dominate through the weekend, with rain and strong winds expected for all. There will be some wintry showers over northern hills but the rain and showers will tend to clear eastwards across the country through Sunday, with temperatures near or above average for most areas. The unsettled theme is then likely to continue through the remainder of the period, with bands of persistent rain followed by brighter and showery conditions. The winds will be strong throughout, with gales possible at times, especially in the west in particular. Although temperatures will be largely mild, there is likely to be some colder spells bringing the risk of wintry showers, mainly in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2017 to Wednesday 1 Mar 2017:

At the start of this period the most likely scenario is for more unsettled weather, with wet and windy spells interspersed with brighter, colder and showery interludes. There is a risk of gales at times, particularly in the west, where the heaviest rainfall is also most likely. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the time of year for most, although with colder interludes more frequent across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Later in February and into March there are signs of a quieter and rather colder spell developing, but confidence remains low in the likelihood and details of this development.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[KTtom]

any one notice how the colder slot is getting pushed further and further away......................

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

any one notice how the colder slot is getting pushed further and further away......................

The same often happens in summer when we're getting desperate for some heat

[Don]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

any one notice how the colder slot is getting pushed further and further away......................

Yep, that's winter 2016/17 for you!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Feb 2017 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2017:

It will be a frosty start for many on Monday, however unsettled conditions will then move into the west, with gales and heavy rain likely here. Eastern areas will hold onto drier and brighter weather for a time, however the unsettled conditions are likely to move eastwards through Tuesday. Through the remainder of this period the rather unsettled weather will continue over western areas, with bands of persistent rain followed by brighter and showery conditions. The winds will be strong throughout, with gales possible at times. Although temperatures will be largely mild initially, there is likely to be some colder spells, especially later, bringing the risk of wintry showers, mainly in the north, with cold and bright conditions in the east.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Feb 2017 to Thursday 16 Feb 2017:

Frontal systems will continue to push across the UK through Tuesday and Wednesday introducing gales and heavy rain at times, which will help to keep temperatures above normal. Sunshine and showers, turning wintry over high ground, will follow in behind. Through the remainder of this period the rather unsettled weather will gradually begin to ease and become confined to western parts. Frontal Atlantic systems will begin to make limited progress as high pressure over the continent begins to build. Eastern parts of the UK will probably turn drier with some spells of sunshine by day, although this will lead to a widespread frost by night and perhaps some fog patches. Temperatures will begin to take a downward trend, particularly in the east where it is likely to become rather cold.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Feb 2017 to Friday 3 Mar 2017:

From the middle of February until the beginning of March, a blocked weather pattern seems most likely to dominate. High pressure over the continent will gradually begin to build and influence our weather. This means that colder and drier conditions through this period look most likely, particularly in the south and east. There may be the occasional spell of milder and wetter weather edging into the west at times although this looks less likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Feb 2017 to Friday 3 Mar 2017:

From the middle of February until the beginning of March, a blocked weather pattern seems most likely to dominate. High pressure over the continent will gradually begin to build and influence our weather. This means that colder and drier conditions through this period look most likely, particularly in the south and east. There may be the occasional spell of milder and wetter weather edging into the west at times although this looks less likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Hardly a beast from the East forecast that, even the shorter outlook is underwhelming. I can only assume any models showing a heavy snow spell are to be ignored unless the Meto have got it wrong.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hardly a beast from the East forecast that, even the shorter outlook is underwhelming. I can only assume any models showing a heavy snow spell are to be ignored unless the Meto have got it wrong.

We'll just have to wait and see, although I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Scandinavian High.]

17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hardly a beast from the East forecast that, even the shorter outlook is underwhelming. I can only assume any models showing a heavy snow spell are to be ignored unless the Meto have got it wrong.

But are the models showing heavy snow or am I wrong .

[joggs]

Not a great update all the same if it's snow you're after and these forecasts haven't been bad at all most of the winter.

 

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

But are the models showing heavy snow or am I wrong .

Some are on the ensembles and the ECM 0z would have been snowy and the 6z had heavy snow too.

[johnholmes]

53 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hardly a beast from the East forecast that, even the shorter outlook is underwhelming. I can only assume any models showing a heavy snow spell are to be ignored unless the Meto have got it wrong.

How on earth do you expect them to predict snowfalls beyond 2 weeks out? Okay the mention of dry weather and nothing about snow might be a touch underdone. But one only has to read the model thread to realise that the 4 letter word with w in it creates total OTT reaction. So best left as 'blocked' and 'colder' than normal for the period in the forecast. The word can be used in short range forecasts. We all know, or should, that predicting where, when, how much rain in summer is not all that often accurate even at T+24 let alone the additional meteorological factors needed to get snow correct at that time scale or even less.

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

How on earth do you expect them to predict snowfalls beyond 2 weeks out? 

I don't as such, but I would prefer if they at least referred to the possibility even if its low risk. I have mentioned before that I would prefer these updates to be more scientific by talking about the probability of a certain weather type over the period in question. So, given the current model output they might say that the prospects of below average temps with snow is currently only 5% probability but below average temps with little snow is 60% etc...

This is just an example, but hopefully you get my drift.

Edited February 2, 2017 by mountain shadow

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't as such, but I would prefer if they at least referred to the possibility even if its low risk. I have mentioned before that I would prefer these updates to be more scientific by talking about the probability of a certain weather type over the period in question. So, given the current model output they might say that the prospects of below average temps with snow is currently only 5% probability but below average temps with little snow is 60% etc...

This is just an example, but hopefully you get my drift.

Can't disagree with what you suggest. How about you send an e mail and ask if something like that is possible? Nothing will change for sure by just making comments into Net Wx.

[jvenge]

Not sure what the confusion is. The MetO don't pin everything on a few operational runs. Quite sure they are aware of what goes on and are watching it with interest, but probably won't post something until it is a little more concrete. Think about the last 4 ECM Op runs we had and then ask yourself which would you have advised on, cos they were all different.

Edited February 2, 2017 by jvenge

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Feb 2017 to Friday 17 Feb 2017:

Wednesday will be mostly dry and often cloudy, though with perhaps some drizzle in the far east and north west. It will gradually turn colder through Wednesday and Thursday, as cloud and patchy precipitation moves westwards, allowing colder air to feed in from the near continent. Into the weekend, it may remain unsettled in the far west with spells of rain at times and perhaps snow on the high ground. Elsewhere, it is likely to stay mostly dry with some sunshine too. It will remain chilly by day and cold by night, especially in the east with frosts becoming widespread. Into the new working week and the middle of February, things look set to stay on the cold side but there will be a good deal of dry weather around.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Feb 2017 to Saturday 4 Mar 2017:

Through the rest of February, confidence in the forecast becomes fairly low, although the most likely scenario is for things to remain fairly settled. This would mean that our weather is likely to stay on the cold side, with a lot of dry days with some sunny around. Nights bring a continued risk of frost and fog. Towards the north and west and northwest is where we're most likely to see any milder and wetter spells of weather, although confidence around this is again low.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mb018538]

No mention of snow at present - which is understandable given the uncertainty. Interesting they feel that the potential re-strengthening of the PV won't lead to a return of widespread unsettled conditions at present.

[Don]

Not as good as yesterdays update but like I said yesterday, we will have to wait and see.