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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Nov 2014 to Saturday 6 Dec 2014:

Rain across many eastern parts on Thursday will clear most parts by the end of the day. A spell of drier and brighter weather, once any early fog has cleared, across western parts will gradually spread east, with further rain reaching western parts later. The rain and strong winds in the west are expected to make erratic progress eastwards during Friday with many eastern areas having a mostly dry start. The unsettled conditions are likely to persist through the weekend and beyond, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds most likely to affect western areas whilst eastern parts are likely to see the best of the drier interludes. Temperatures will mostly be around normal, but with some chilly starts and occasional overnight frost possible during the drier and clearer interludes.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Dec 2014 to Sunday 21 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around or a little above average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 22 Nov 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

Edited by Stuart

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UK Outlook for Friday 28 Nov 2014 to Sunday 7 Dec 2014:

Outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, and strong winds are likely across the west on Friday and into the weekend. The rain and strong winds will push slowly eastwards through the period with southeastern areas perhaps seeing little rainfall. Southerly winds will reach gale or severe gale force at times in the west/northwest, and draw in milder air than of late; especially by night. The unsettled conditions are likely to persist into the following week. The heaviest rain and strongest winds most likely to affect northwestern areas whilst eastern parts are likely to see the best of the drier interludes. Temperatures will mostly be around normal or milder during spells of cloud and rain, but drier and clearer interludes between weather systems will allow an increased risk of frost and fog.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 23 Nov 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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Lets hope we start to see this changing soon, my guess is we will by the end of the month, certainly we will by mid December like we did in 2012.

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No update today.so I will cut and paste

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:

Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

No change. Surely being paid enough money as a salary they should at least update it properly. Amateurs,

Edited by marksiwnc

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No update today.so I will cut and paste

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:

Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

No change. Surely being paid enough money as a salary they should at least update it properly. Amateurs,

If they didn't update it, then how did you manage to copy and paste it?

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If they didn't update it, then how did you manage to copy and paste it?

Check.Sundays update:

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 23 Nov 2014

And now today's :

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Isn't it the same today as Sundays???? Yes? No?

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No update today.so I will cut and paste

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:

Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

No change. Surely being paid enough money as a salary they should at least update it properly. Amateurs,

I think in the short term that's a fair assessment for the longer term there's still much to play for and unresolved.

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No update today.so I will cut and paste

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:

Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

No change. Surely being paid enough money as a salary they should at least update it properly. Amateurs,

 

If you are referring to the 16-30 day, currently on the one you posted=10/12-24/12?

If there is no marked change then other than changing the date what is the point. If you have nowt to say say nowt seems a sensible idea to me?

What do you want them to say? Do you think they do not bother to look carefully at the huge amount of data?

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Check.Sundays update:

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 23 Nov 2014

And now today's :

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Isn't it the same today as Sundays???? Yes? No?

That will be a No then.

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UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Dec 2014 to Thursday 25 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places. There is also a chance of some snow on higher ground in the north.

Updated at: 0255 on Wed 26 Nov 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 1 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 10 Dec 2014:

Outbreaks of rain in the northwest will gradually move southeastwards through Monday and Tuesday, weakening as it does so. Largely cloudy ahead of this rain, with clear and colder conditions following from the northwest. Thereafter, pressure will build from the west bringing a period of largely settled weather with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Risk of frost and fog patches forming by night where skies remain clear. However, northwestern parts will be windy at times with occasional rain or showers, these perhaps wintry over the hills. Temperatures often below average and rather cold at times, especially where fog lingers. The week after next is likely to turn more unsettled and milder in the northwest. These conditions may well spread to more southern and eastern parts of the country later.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Dec 2014 to Friday 12 Dec 2014:

After a frosty start on Wednesday, it will be a dry but rather chilly day in the south, with sunny spells. It will tend to be cloudier and windier across the north with outbreaks of rain possible in the west. Through the rest of the week, pressure will continue to build from the west, bringing largely settled weather with variable cloud and sunny spells with the risk of frost and fog patches forming by night. However, northwestern parts will tend to be windier with occasional rain and hill snow. Temperatures are likely to be below average, especially where fog lingers and perhaps in the north over the weekend. Into the week after next, there is an increasing likelihood of more unsettled conditions spreading back to all areas.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Dec 2014 to Saturday 27 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places. There is also a chance of some snow on higher ground in the north.

Updated at: 1414 on Fri 28 Nov 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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Not so much a forecast as a statistical average, really.

 

 

Very much agree. It seems they haven't a clue and therefore it is best to go for the 'average'..  By saying there is a chance... well anyone could say there is a chance of something happening..

 

Non-committal and meaningless..

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Very much agree. It seems they haven't a clue and therefore it is best to go for the 'average'..  By saying there is a chance... well anyone could say there is a chance of something happening..

 

Non-committal and meaningless..

Maybe they do have a clue...and it's to BE average?  

 

You can't expect Met Office to come out with "committed" forecasts like Madden (who should be committed) and forecast one extreme or another when the signals just aren't there...yet anyway?  

 

They can surely only go on what the models are showing which, at this time, must only be average conditions until something changes that viewpoint.

 

As they say "no strong signal in weather patterns" but hopefully that will change soon enough for them to be more 'certain' if you can ever be certain about a weather forecast over a 15-30 day period!!

 

Joe

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Very much agree. It seems they haven't a clue and therefore it is best to go for the 'average'..  By saying there is a chance... well anyone could say there is a chance of something happening..

 

Non-committal and meaningless..

 

Just what do you want them to print IF they are of the opinion that there is no deep cold on the way in the next 30 days. I do despair of some of you showing some understanding of meteorology and climatology at times. No it is not a love in by an Met forecaster. If they make a bog of it I post as such. Does anyone think the outlook is vastly different from what the 16-30 day outlook suggests? None of the charts I use suggest there is anything probably in the 16 day time scale. A possibility say 20-25% of beyond that before Christmas but even that is perhaps on the high side?

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Just what do you want them to print IF they are of the opinion that there is no deep cold on the way in the next 30 days. I do despair of some of you showing some understanding of meteorology and climatology at times. No it is not a love in by an Met forecaster. If they make a bog of it I post as such. Does anyone think the outlook is vastly different from what the 16-30 day outlook suggests? None of the charts I use suggest there is anything probably in the 16 day time scale. A possibility say 20-25% of beyond that before Christmas but even that is perhaps on the high side?

 

 

I would like them to say...."There are no strong signals so therefore we don't know"...............................................................

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I would like them to say...."There are no strong signals so therefore we don't know"...............................................................

Well if that's you what you infer from that forecast while I infer that average weather is very likely, why not leave it like that, i.e. for people to infer for themselves what they want from the forecast?  You're happy; I'm happy...ish...!  It's weather.....almost unpredictable!!  ;)

 

joe

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If meto don't  broadcast there long range forecast's anymore,then why are they publicising this 16-30 dayer forecast,simples.

 

i for one don't look beyond 5 days @ the most.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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If meto don't  broadcast there long range forecast's anymore,then why are they publicising this 16-30 dayer forecast,simples.

 

i for one don't look beyond 5 days @ the most.

 

Because they are describing what signals are currently showing in their models for the 16-30 day time-frame.

 

If people use them the same way as a shorter range forecast, then that's their choice, but not how they should be interpreted.

 

Something that may be useful for some posters to read:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/about-forecasts

Edited by Chris K

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UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Dec 2014 to Saturday 13 Dec 2014:

Largely dry on Thursday with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. However, thicker cloud across northwestern areas is likely to bring occasional rain here and also stronger winds, especially western Scotland. By Friday, pressure should remain generally high across southern parts bringing largely settled conditions for many with fog and frost by night. However, cloud and occasional rain across northwestern parts may extend southeastwards across the country into the weekend perhaps introducing a brief colder incursion with more widespread frost by night possible and perhaps some wintry showers in the north, before pressure rebuilds from the west. Into the following week, the most likely scenario by then is for the most unsettled conditions to be in the northwest with southeastern areas seeing the best of the drier conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Dec 2014 to Sunday 28 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year, but some colder incursions are likely between weather systems. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places and also some snow on higher ground in the north during any temporary colder incursions from the northwest.

Updated at: 1509 on Sat 29 Nov 2014

 

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

Edited by Stuart

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