Meto Uk Further Outlook

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Warmest, surely?

Yes sorry.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Well your comment seems to suggest that because temperatures in your opinion have been cold this autumn as opposed to met offices mild forecast then winter will follow the same but that's not how it works that's all. Just saying.

I didn't suggest any figures, the official stats are there for all to see.

As I have said before, long range seasonal models are purely experimental and imo have a strong bias for above average temperatures.

[Jordan S]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I didn't suggest any figures, the official stats are there for all to see.

As I have said before, long range seasonal models are purely experimental and imo have a strong bias for above average temperatures.

No I know you didn't I was just pointing out what seemed like hope casting I don't take notice of seasonal models they do have a mild bias but it hasn't been colder than average for the autumn as a whole yet but another month to go so you never know i think temperatures have been around average for October. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by jordan smith

[DAVID SNOW]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It has been above average here. What about your stats?

As I said to you in the other thread.. the Met Office didn't forecast a 'very mild' Autumn. You take the contingency planning forecast the wrong way and come up with your own conclusion.

Contingency planners strongly favoured Autumn to be in the 'warmest'  category, that's their conclusion not mine.

[Sceptical]

58 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I didn't suggest any figures, the official stats are there for all to see.

As I have said before, long range seasonal models are purely experimental and imo have a strong bias for above average temperatures.

Since 1884 the 10 warmest UK years have occured since 2002. None of the 10 coldest UK years have occured since 1963.

Bias

Edited November 1, 2019 by Sceptical

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Contingency planners strongly favoured Autumn to be in the 'warmest'  category, that's their conclusion not mine.

I'm not going to keep on going around in circles with you. You and others misinterpret them, therefore, you should steer clear of them. It says not to use them in isolation, which is exactly what you've not been doing.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Mapantz

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

No I know you didn't I was just pointing out what seemed like hope casting I don't take notice of seasonal models they do have a mild bias but it hasn't been colder than average for the autumn as a whole yet but another month to go so you never know i think temperatures have been around average for October. 

October: 0.7C below average(CET)

[Jordan S]

I wasn't sure but I thought it may be slightly below average but not too far off the norm. Has felt quite chilly recently but some of those mild days really where very mild indeed. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by jordan smith

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not sure what the debate is here. As I read it, there was high confidence that it would come out in the warmest of their categories. That's where their chips were. As it stands, it looks like they may have backed the wrong horse and autumn will come out close to average temperature wise. 

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure what the debate is here. As I read it, there was high confidence that it would come out in the warmest of their categories. That's where their chips were. As it stands, it looks like they may have backed the wrong horse and autumn will come out close to average temperature wise. 

At no point did the contingency planners forecast say that there would be well above average temps - which is exactly what others have been saying. The Met Office also stated a 5% chance of Sep - Nov falling in to one of their five coldest categories. So, from that, how can you deduce that they were forecasting temperatures to be well above above average over that period?

It really shouldn't be for public use as it is getting misread and abused by some.

[DAVID SNOW]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not going to keep on going around in circles with you. You and others misinterpret them, therefore, you should steer clear of them. It says not to use them in isolation, which is exactly what you've not been doing.

In your opinion.

In my opinion I don't misinterpret them and if its ok I wont steer clear of them.

Hope this reply doesn't get deleted.

[ICE COLD]

53 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It has been above average here. What about your stats?

As I said to you in the other thread.. the Met Office didn't forecast a 'very mild' Autumn. You take the contingency planning forecast the wrong way and come up with your own conclusion.

I’m sorry they definitely got there predictions wrong for autumn. They stated with great confidence that it would be mild to very mild . You say it’s been above average in your location but when is it not , you live in Dorset it’s hard to get a slight frost down there . We still have November to go but looking at the next 10days it looks below average. 

[Mr Frost]

33 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not sure what the debate is here. As I read it, there was high confidence that it would come out in the warmest of their categories. That's where their chips were. As it stands, it looks like they may have backed the wrong horse and autumn will come out close to average temperature wise. 

Spot on mate.

@Mapantz you get very defensive when anyone has a go at the Met Office? 
Probability of 60% for warmest? (October temperature has come in below average for here) 

I think the one issued after this below has the probability of 45% for warmest?

As I said before..if I was a business receiving these I would chuck them in the bin.

On 30/08/2019 at 11:38, Summer Sun said:

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf

Edited November 1, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mapantz]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

They stated with great confidence that it would be mild to very mild 

You show me exactly where they said it will be mild to very mild, please? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

I am agreeing with you on this mate. 

@Mapantz you get very defensive when anyone has a go at the Met Office? 
Probability of 60% for warmest? (October temperature has come in below average for here) 

I think the one issued after this below has the probability of 45% for warmest?

As I said before..if I was a business receiving these I would chuck them in the bin.

Yes, They got a forecast wrong, who doesn't in any walk of life - so what, i could understand if people were ripping into them and slagging them off, i certainly am not, i see nothing wrong with the vast majority of posts in here this evening whatsoever.

[Mapantz]

Just now, Mr Frost said:

you get very defensive when anyone has a go at the Met Office?

I'm not defensive of the Met Office, i'm defensive of the contingency planning forecast being taking well and truly out of context.

Here's a snippet from the Met Office:

Quote

However, as with any horse race, it’s always possible that the favourite won’t win – so these probability scenarios have to be used in the right context. This is why they’re useful for contingency planners who plan ahead based on risk, but not that useful for the general public.

It's clear as day.

It fascinates me to see these experts bashing the Met Office over something that they categorically didn't say.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You show me exactly where they said it will be mild to very mild, please? 

Sorry warmest looking at the post above . It’s black and white . Have you got shares in the met office lol . 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not defensive of the Met Office, i'm defensive of the contingency planning forecast being taking well and truly out of context.

Here's a snippet from the Met Office:

It's clear as day.

It fascinates me to see these experts bashing the Met Office over something that they categorically didn't say.

If they are not useful for the general public then what are they useful for, it is the general public that subsidise them anyway.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Sorry warmest looking at the post above . It’s black and white . Have you got shares in the met office lol . 

So now you're retracting your statement of 'mild to very mild'? 

re Dorset; we do get our fair share of frosts down here. We'd already had more frosts by this time last year. So I don't know what you're getting at?

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If they are not useful for the general public then what are they useful for, it is the general public that subsidise them anyway.

Why don't you email the Met Office and find out? As I suggested in the other thread.

Anyway, we should leave it there. This is supposed to be the met o outlook for the public, not contingency planners. 

[Frosty.]

I find it interesting how the models we look at change so much from run to run and  day to day yet the met office updates in the 6 to 15 day range hardly change at all, and that also goes for the extended longer range..and I wish they would stop saying cooler for the far north next week, with minus 7 uppers it would be cold dammit!!

[DAVID SNOW]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Why don't you email the Met Office and find out? As I suggested in the other thread.

Anyway, we should leave it there. This is supposed to be the met o outlook for the public, not contingency planners. 

Indeed it is! But it was you who first brought up the contingency planners forecast lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

I find it interesting how the models we look at change so much from run to run and  day to day yet the met office updates in the 6 to 15 day range hardly change at all, and that also goes for the extended longer range..and I wish they would stop saying cooler for the far north next week, with minus 7 uppers it would be cold dammit!!

Not defending them but to be fair to them, they have to be sure that they are changing their forecast for definite or it would look even worse if they just kept changing iback and forth from cold and blocked to mild and wet from day to day based on GFS FI or something like that.

[Jordan S]

22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Spot on mate.

@Mapantz you get very defensive when anyone has a go at the Met Office? 
Probability of 60% for warmest? (October temperature has come in below average for here) 

I think the one issued after this below has the probability of 45% for warmest?

As I said before..if I was a business receiving these I would chuck them in the bin.

I think they should stop the contingency forecast altogether at this rate anywayyyy looks chilly for next week.

[ICE COLD]

21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

So now you're retracting your statement of 'mild to very mild'? 

re Dorset; we do get our fair share of frosts down here. We'd already had more frosts by this time last year. So I don't know what you're getting at?

I said mild to very mild because it’s stated by them it was 60% probability that it would fall into the warmest categories. So therefore it would be mild or even very mild if they was correct .