Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2018:

Mild but unsettled conditions are likely to be in place by the second week of November with dry and bright spells interspersed with bands of rain or showers. Confidence into and beyond the middle of November is low, but there are some signs of high pressure developing which could help to divert weather systems away from the UK. If such a scenario develops then longer settled spells could bring largely dry conditions, but a greater chance of overnight frost and fog, and daytime temperatures below normal. Any rain or showers could fall as snow over northern hills, and any milder interludes are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I'm very much liking that, as quite a few cold winters have been preceded by a blocked Novembers...The only drawback being - of course - that quite few haven't!

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2018:

Mild but unsettled conditions are likely to be in place by the second week of November with dry and bright spells interspersed with bands of rain or showers. Confidence into and beyond the middle of November is low, but there are some signs of high pressure developing which could help to divert weather systems away from the UK. If such a scenario develops then longer settled spells could bring largely dry conditions, but a greater chance of overnight frost and fog, and daytime temperatures below normal. Any rain or showers could fall as snow over northern hills, and any milder interludes are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That there is a bit of a back track in my opinion...for a week or so they've been saying temps largely colder than average as we approach the end of October (with brief milder interludes) but the low confidence element has now come in. Models look like there firming up on another mild/warm spell after this cold snap...

[Purga]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2018:

Mild but unsettled conditions are likely to be in place by the second week of November with dry and bright spells interspersed with bands of rain or showers. Confidence into and beyond the middle of November is low, but there are some signs of high pressure developing which could help to divert weather systems away from the UK. If such a scenario develops then longer settled spells could bring largely dry conditions, but a greater chance of overnight frost and fog, and daytime temperatures below normal. Any rain or showers could fall as snow over northern hills, and any milder interludes are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

"ANY MILDER INTERLUDES ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT LIVED." 

[Ross90]

So the met are going for wet and windy first few days in Nov while the bbc have it calm and quiet up til the 5th where i am... 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

No one has a clue what will happen in November but one things for sure - no raging Atlantic with its mild mush

Edited October 23, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

That there is a bit of a back track in my opinion...for a week or so they've been saying temps largely colder than average as we approach the end of October (with brief milder interludes) but the low confidence element has now come in. Models look like there firming up on another mild/warm spell after this cold snap...

Agreed, their confidence appears to have waned.  However, as long as typical mild/zonal conditions do not become established, hope remains for winter.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Oct 2018 to Wednesday 7 Nov 2018:

Monday looks most likely to bring dry and bright weather with sunshine for many. Eastern areas could remain showery with perhaps some hail and thunder at times. Temperatures are expected to remain on the colder side of average, with stronger winds around northern and eastern coastal fringes. Snow showers are possible over high ground in the north, and overnight frosts may be widespread. Similar conditions may prevail through Tuesday. Confidence reduces further by Wednesday, but signals suggest a return to unsettled conditions for many with spells of rain and stronger winds at times; temperatures may slowly recover towards normal. Northwestern areas may see drier than average weather, however. Towards the end of the period there are weak signals for a return to more settled, slow moving weather patterns.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2018 to Thursday 22 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the period is low, but there are weak signals for high pressure to be dominant to the north and east of the UK, bringing largely settled conditions. This may result in below-average temperatures and a greater risk of overnight frost, particularly in longer settled spells. Snow is also possible over higher ground, especially in the north. Milder, wetter spells are likely to be short lived as we move towards the middle of November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Thursday 8 Nov 2018:

There is some uncertainty in the outlook, but the most likely scenario is for a transition from cold, settled conditions at the start of the week to something more changeable bringing bright interludes, showers or longer spells of rain. The greater chance of rain will be in the north and east, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in more sheltered western areas. Temperatures may remain below average while snow remains possible over northern hills. Temperatures are likely to recover by mid-week, but the detail in the forecast is very uncertain. There are weak signals for slow-moving low pressure systems to affect the UK after Thursday with showers or spells of rain and a chance of strong winds almost anywhere. Confidence after this point is low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Nov 2018 to Friday 23 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the outlook period remains low, however the preferred scenario is for changeable conditions to dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers and also some brighter spells at times. There are weak signals for high pressure to develop to the north and east towards mid November which could result in any weather systems being diverted away from the UK. This setup would favour a colder regime with a greater chance of overnight frosts and early morning fog, but also plenty of dry weather. Spells of rain could be short lived, but some snow may still be possible over higher ground at times, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Wimbledon88]

I think I will ask for a forecast from the next Halloween witch I bump into. Really can't understand why in 2018 they are still so uncertain even at 5 days out. Apart from when there is HP of course. 

[Dorsetbred]

38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Thursday 8 Nov 2018:

There is some uncertainty in the outlook, but the most likely scenario is for a transition from cold, settled conditions at the start of the week to something more changeable bringing bright interludes, showers or longer spells of rain. The greater chance of rain will be in the north and east, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in more sheltered western areas. Temperatures may remain below average while snow remains possible over northern hills. Temperatures are likely to recover by mid-week, but the detail in the forecast is very uncertain. There are weak signals for slow-moving low pressure systems to affect the UK after Thursday with showers or spells of rain and a chance of strong winds almost anywhere. Confidence after this point is low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wow could this really be more factual than the slooshy 6 sentences of "We really are not sure!" Do they really use super computers to produce this sort of notice? Quote "Confidence after this point is low.", if you ask me Confidence at this point is very low...

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Wow could this really be more factual than the slooshy 6 sentences of "We really are not sure!" Do they really use super computers to produce this sort of notice? Quote "Confidence after this point is low.", if you ask me Confidence at this point is very low...

Expressing low confidence seems the right thing to do, to me; it sure beats the bluster, over-confidence and hubris that one associates with many of those self-styled LRFers who have far less knowledge/data available than the Met does, IMO...?

I'd far rather see someone admit to not knowing everything than a bunch of silly predictions for widespread snow and blizzards - on, say, January 27. Super computers or not.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 Oct 2018 to Friday 9 Nov 2018:

On Wednesday patchy rain in the south should gradually clear, then most places dry with bright or sunny spells, but with scattered blustery showers in the west. By Thursday strong winds and local gales are likely in the north, with some heavy rain at times, whilst further south it should remain more settled. Looking further ahead it's most likely that changeable weather prevails, with further spells of rain likely in the north, perhaps spreading southeast at times. There will be some drier and brighter interludes too, initially in the south, but later in the northwest, and there is a risk of strong winds almost anywhere. Temperatures will start cold or rather cold, but soon recover to normal and locally mild at times, but with frost possible in any clearer interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the outlook period remains low, however it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop across the north and east towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely. However, more changeable conditions could still become established at times. Temperatures generally below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north, with any mild spells likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Purga]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the outlook period remains low, however it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop across the north and east towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely. However, more changeable conditions could still become established at times. Temperatures generally below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north, with any mild spells likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

"There are some signs that high pressure may develop across the north and east towards mid November"

"Temperatures generally below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow"

Important bits cherry picked,,,,

 

[bluearmy]

Exeter seem to have mogreps not in agreement with ec46 unless the ens mean on the ec 46 hides some interesting clusters ......

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter seem to have mogreps not in agreement with ec46 unless the ens mean on the ec 46 hides some interesting clusters ......

Though they do cover their bases somewhat with the line about confidence being low- probably a reflection of a bit of conflicting model guidance - i'd side with mogreps personally, and reading the text i'd wager the forecaster is doing for the time being.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Nov 2018 to Saturday 10 Nov 2018:

On Thursday rain in central and eastern parts should clear during the morning leaving a showery day, with strengthening winds in the west later. Friday is likely to be windy, with outbreaks of rain only clearing slowly to more showery conditions in the west late in the day. Looking further ahead it seems most likely that generally changeable weather prevails, with further spells of rain likely across the northwest, with heavy rain spreading further southeast at times. There should be some drier and brighter interludes too, initially in the south, then later in the northwest, but with a chance of gales at times, particularly in the west. Temperatures will start cold, but soon recover to normal and locally mild at times, but with frost possible in any clearer interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Nov 2018 to Sunday 25 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the outlook period remains low, however it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop across the north and east towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures generally below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north, with any mild spells likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Nov 2018 to Sunday 11 Nov 2018:

Friday is likely to start dry in most central and eastern districts with some hazy sunshine. However outbreaks of rain in the west will move across all areas with windy conditions developing, giving gales in places. Brighter, showery conditions will probably follow on Saturday. Looking further ahead, generally changeable weather is likely to continue, giving further spells of rain particularly across the northwest, with heavy rain spreading to other parts at times. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. There will be some drier and brighter interludes too, especially in the south, then perhaps more widely later. Gales will occur at times, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be locally mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in drier interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Nov 2018 to Monday 26 Nov 2018:

Confidence through this period remains low. However it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below normal generally, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Monday 12 Nov 2018:

Next weekend is likely to bring a spell of wet and windy weather, with potentially stormy conditions. However it will be a little milder than what we currently have. Looking further ahead into the following week, it will be unsettled with some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK will be a little drier. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. It will be windy at times with gales, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be quite mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in the drier interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

The weather will be generally unsettled through this period. There will be some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK are expected to be a little drier. It is likely to be fairly cold in the northwest, with perhaps some sleet or snow at times on northern hills, but it will probably be slightly milder in the southeast. However, overnight frosts are likely across the UK when the clear and dry interludes occur at night, perhaps with some frost and fog at times too. It will be windy at times with gales or perhaps severe gales, most likely around western coasts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast