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The twelfth tropical depression of the West Pac season has formed 400 miloes south of Okinawa. Intensity is 30kts. The system has maintained a modest amount of deep convection over an increasingly well defined LLC. In addition, there are signs of weak banding beginning to form. Conditions are favourable for strengthening with gradually improving outflow, low shear and warm sea temps. JTWC are forecasting 12W to gradually become a typhoon.

The steering pattern is fairly complex. A slow northwestwards motion appears likely over the next 48hrs as 12W feels a weak flow along the southwestern periphery of a low level ridge to the northeast. Eventually, a stronger ridge is expected to build to the southeast which will force 12W northeastwards at greater speed. However, JTWC mention that another ridge to the north could also form and if this one is stronger, 12W could be forced back westwards by day 4 and 5. It'll be interesting to see just where this one ends up with all the uncertainty.

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Tropical Depression 12W has become Tropical Storm Fanapi, with intensity rising to 35kts. Fanapi has good central convection with strong banding surrounding the LLC. This structure suggests that intensification is likely to occur. The environment is characterised by low shear, warm sea temperatures and excellent outflow. Therefore, I think the JTWC could be a bit conservative with their forecast peak intensity of 75kts. The only possible hold back for Fanapi is the forecast slow motion over the next day or so might cause some upwelling of colder water- but I don't think this will be significant.

Fanapi is turning slowly to the north along the western periphery of a weakening ridge to the southeast. As the ridge weakens further, Fanapi will slow to a crawl before then feeling the influence of a building ridge to the north which will send the storm westwards at a faster pace. Therefore, Taiwan and China need to closely watch Fanapi as this storm could become a strong typhoon heading in their direction.

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Fanapi has rapidly strengthened to 65kts, making it a cat 1 typhoon. Fanapi is becoming an increasing concern for Taiwan. The ridge to the north is building sooner than expected meaning that a sharper westward turn is expected. This will most likely bring Fanapi onto the east coast of Taiwan in about 60hrs as a strengthening typhoon. Official forecast is peaking Fanapi at 90kts, but as before- I wouldn't be surprised to see this typhoon end up being stronger than that. Taiwan (and then China) need to brace themselves.

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Hello,

I will be intercepting the storm as it makes landfall in Taiwan this weekend. I will keep you posted on developments.

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Hello,

I will be intercepting the storm as it makes landfall in Taiwan this weekend. I will keep you posted on developments.

good luck and stay safe :nea:

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Fanapi has become a cat 2, with intensity rising to 85kts. However, looking at latest satellite imagery it could be a cat 3 by next advisory. Fanapi is a small typhoon with a small, well defined eye. Low shear and warm sea temps should promote strengthening for the next 24hrs before shear increases. Fanapi is on course towards Taiwan still. Hopefully the typhoon doesn't gather any more strength. It's as dangerous enough as it is.

post-1820-013927100 1284743436_thumb.jpg

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Fanapi has become the season's strongest typhoon so far with intensity now at 105kts, making it a cat 3. Fanapi is heading westwards towards Taiwan and this track should persist until dissipation over China in around 72-96hrs time. Fanapi could gain a little more strength, and cat 4 isn't out of the question before landfall on Taiwan.

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Latest from NOP if of interest.

180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN DEPICT A 10 NM EYE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ON THE JAPAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN 180249Z PGUA VORTEX MESSAGE INDICATING SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 105 KNOTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON DOTSTAR DROPSONDE DATA AND 18/07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA (75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 12W) INDICATING 44 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING TO 61 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 987 MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS THE OUTFLOW ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.

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Than you. Just an update. We are currently on our way towards Hualien on the east coast of Taiwan. The current conditions are blustery with intermittent heavy showers. I will update when we arrive in Hualien, and hopefully add video updates later (technology permitting!).

Edit: After a hairy ride down the shear-drop coastal road of the east coast of Taiwan we have arrived in Hualien where we will monitor the track of FANAPI and decide where to best position ourselves. There is currently extremely high rainfall in the eastern city of YiLan, which is approximately 60 miles north of Hualien.

Between YiLan and Hualien we experienced heavy gusts estimated at around 25-35kts as the outer edges of the system reach the coast and sporadic but extremely heavy rainfall. Rocks have been falling onto the road and our vehicle was hit by a small one on the hood just in front of the window, but there is no damage or injuries. Many trees and signs are already down, however, there have been no landslides as yet and access is still possible. As I type, rainfall is becoming more consistent and is steadily intensifying. Our most likely plan of action will be to stay north of the eye-wall and intercept the eye from the north

Thanks so far to those who have offered position data through text. Almost time for breakfast.

26° 58' 50"N 121°35'53"E - Hualien, near airport.

21:37 UTC/05:37 Taiwan

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Very intense winds hit our location earlier, bringing down traffic lights, streetlights and stripping off roofs. The relevant websites will give you the real data for wind speeds as I was unable to get accurate readings from the ground. Unfortunately, I also destroyed my barometer by dropping it so I don't have any readings for the lowest pressure at our location. Also unable to update due to lack of wireless cover.

Parts of the city are without electricity. I eventually took shelter at a local police station where I initially based myself. The police were not answering 911 calls due to the ferociousness of the wind. At the moment, things are quite calm with light rain.

Initial raw video here:

01:03 UTC/09:03 Taiwan

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Thanks for that account Dangermouse.

Fanapi appears to have moved southwestwards over southern Taiwan, instead of continuing westwards. This could be due to topography. It means that the landfall in China is now much further south than originally forecast. Intensity has reduced to 75kts due to land interaction, but Fanapi is still expected to be a typhoon at second landfall near Hong Kong.

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Here is a the edited version of the chase video from typhoon FANAPI. I completely drenched my computer while on the chase and therefore could not make any more updates, so sorry about that. Everything is working well now though.

Here in Taiwan we obviously experienced intense winds and high rainfall. There was a lot of structural damage and localised flooding has been reported, however thankfully on this occasion, there were relatively few casualties.

I hope you enjoy the video - I did intend to update throughout the storm but there are always things that go wrong in every chase.

Thanks!

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Here is a the edited version of the chase video from typhoon FANAPI. I completely drenched my computer while on the chase and therefore could not make any more updates, so sorry about that. Everything is working well now though.

Here in Taiwan we obviously experienced intense winds and high rainfall. There was a lot of structural damage and localised flooding has been reported, however thankfully on this occasion, there were relatively few casualties.

I hope you enjoy the video - I did intend to update throughout the storm but there are always things that go wrong in every chase.

Thanks!

brilliant mate, top class, Hope to see many more!

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You've captured the fury of Fanapi quite well there Dangermouse, thanks for sharing the video :)

some amazing situations with the whole in the tunnel and the made woman on her scooter

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some amazing situations with the whole in the tunnel and the made woman on her scooter

I know, what a nutter!!

(btw Cookie- Karl was a major hurricane for the benifit for your signature. The lists show how much more active the Atlantic has been over the East Pacific- quite a difference! East Pacific is usually the more active basin!)

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I know, what a nutter!!

(btw Cookie- Karl was a major hurricane for the benifit for your signature. The lists show how much more active the Atlantic has been over the East Pacific- quite a difference! East Pacific is usually the more active basin!)

Thanks mate. yeah and none of the East Pacific systems haven't been that long lived.

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