Winter Prediction Poll 2010/11

[ZONE 51]

I voted severe cold winter, as a strong la nina sets up conditions lasting the whole winter, and a few other factors to of course.

I think we are going to see a cold spell in november with early snow in the north and maybe england and not just the higher ground ,this a warning for a block to the atlantic during december setting up a severe cold winter, mostly dry but snow showers giving deep falls in most places.

Edited September 14, 2010 by nimbilus

[Bottesford]

I don't really agree with the option range you've got there (dry and cold can be the same as severe cold winter for example; and where is mild & dry?) but closest match for me would be cold & dry.

Mainly dry more than anything which usually means colder in general. Nothing severe though and I think we'll have a fair few milder periods this time round.

From a more hopeful point of view (and 'hope' is no doubt what the 'severe cold winter' selectors have gone with!) I'd like a mild winter but with short and sharp cold spells. Keeps the gas bills down but still makes for interesting weather. Dry is easier but we do need some rain...

[Coast]

I'm also not sure if people are voting for what they want, rather than what they think we will actually get?

[picog]

• I went for severe, but that's just wishful thinking on my part!

[Nick L]

I'm also not sure if people are voting for what they want, rather than what they think we will actually get?

Indeed, should be re-titled "Winter hopecast poll"!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I haven't voted but folk know my initial thoughts from May...and they have only been galvanised at present...but I'll reveal all in Nov with my winter LRF as per normal.

Last winter was severe, make no bones so any winter close to it even if not as cold will still be a very cold winter...remember that folks.

Forecast Synoptic set up remains as HP to our northern quadrant [prob NW] with jetstream way south.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Pretty near to the long term average, methinks. Nothing to encourage drama-predictions anyhoo...

[johncoolj]

cold and snowy

this will be the big one

a massive frezze

[Backtrack]

I haven't voted in the poll because the teleconnections and analogues are pointing to a season of two halves, with frequent northerlies in November and December followed by frequent westerlies and north-westerlies in January and February, barring a major stratospheric warming event in February which could temporarily switch the pattern to something a lot colder/snowier.

If we end up with a major stratospheric warming event in February we could end up with something similar to 2008/09, maybe even a bit colder and snowier than that. Another "cold and snowy" possibility is a lesser version of 1950/51, which had a very cold December and then a cool zonal January & February with frequent polar maritime air- it was the snowiest winter of the 20th century in some upland areas.

However, I think a winter like 2001/02 can't be ruled out either- I remember the frequent northerlies in November & December (including the notably potent early blast of 8/9 November 2001 as well as the ones around Christmas) and then rampant mild westerlies and south-westerlies until the last week of March.

Bottom line: probably relatively cold and snowy by recent standards but not far from longer-term averages, and a lot less cold/snowy than last winter.

What were the teleconnections and analogues pointing to at this stage last winter, do you know?

[Thundery wintry showers]

From what I remember they were pointing to a cold snowy December and January with a lot of blocking to the NW, very similar to what actually happened, but the signals for February were mixed with the majority pointing to something mild and anticyclonic, and thus being wrong. Maybe Glacier Point might have some recollections? At least that's how I think they were from memory.

[Backtrack]

From what I remember they were pointing to a cold snowy December and January with a lot of blocking to the NW, very similar to what actually happened, but the signals for February were mixed with the majority pointing to something mild and anticyclonic, and thus being wrong. Maybe Glacier Point might have some recollections? At least that's how I think they were from memory.

Cheers Ian, good memory you have there. I can't even remember the date we had that foot of snow.

January some time.

[A.J]

mild and wet....temps in the mid 80's even in Shetland......a definite hint of global warming, just enough to shut the cold lovers up...lol

[ZONE 51]

I really would want it to be deep snow like feb09 the thames streamer that gave 18inces level.

The best for me would be clear cold and frosty nights and clear blue sky by day turning to heavy snow shrs at times as features run in from the north sea.

It seems that by this poll more votes either predict or want/think it be cold and dry or a severe cold winter.

Edited September 16, 2010 by nimbilus

[Thundery wintry showers]

Cheers Ian, good memory you have there. I can't even remember the date we had that foot of snow.

January some time.

You are probably thinking of the frontal snowfall on the 5th January, when most western and southern areas had a significant dumping of snow, and the pool of warmer air associated with the front was well out to the west (unlike the similar event on 19th December when even north-east England had sleet rather than snow at low levels for a time).

The other, less likely, possibility is 20-22 December when heavy, thundery snow showers affected north-west England from a cyclonic/westerly regime associated with air of arctic maritime origin.

[Optimus Prime]

mild and wet....temps in the mid 80's

Temperatures in the mid 80s were pretty cold.

[ZONE 51]

Factors present now:

-NAO in negative phase

-Low sunspot count

-Jet stream far to the south of uk

-Slow of the gulf stream

-Strong la nina

im quite certain of a severe cold winter to start earlier than last year, when the blocking sets up to bring in very cold air. the stalled pattern to continue for much of the winter. atlantic doors may open again at the end of winter (feb) bringing storms but huge frontal snow events as mild battles cold.

I think during november winter hits hard with december and january bitterly cold ,severe frosts and snowy, frozen lakes, from north to the south coast.

[liltbrockie]

Factors present now:

-NAO in negative phase

-Low sunspot count

-Jet stream far to the south of uk

-Slow of the gulf stream

-Strong la nina

im quite certain of a severe cold winter to start earlier than last year, when the blocking sets up to bring in very cold air. the stalled pattern to continue for much of the winter. atlantic doors may open again at the end of winter (feb) bringing storms but huge frontal snow events as mild battles cold.

I think during november winter hits hard with december and january bitterly cold ,severe frosts and snowy, frozen lakes, from north to the south coast.

Things are looking good I must admit.

[WhiteXmas]

Severe cold for me definitely

Edited September 21, 2010 by WhiteXmas

[weathe20]

Factors present now:

-NAO in negative phase

-Low sunspot count

-Jet stream far to the south of uk

-Slow of the gulf stream

-Strong la nina

im quite certain of a severe cold winter to start earlier than last year, when the blocking sets up to bring in very cold air. the stalled pattern to continue for much of the winter. atlantic doors may open again at the end of winter (feb) bringing storms but huge frontal snow events as mild battles cold.

I think during november winter hits hard with december and january bitterly cold ,severe frosts and snowy, frozen lakes, from north to the south coast.

Yes all good factors, but not sure about the gulf stream.

[snowlover2009]

Yes all good factors, but not sure about the gulf stream.

thats a fair point,but looking at the atlantic on the noaa, it looks extremely weaker compared to last year or is weaker than last year. time will tell.

[Cymro]

As a superstitious soul, all this talk of severe cold and the winter of doom etc is making me think of fools gold. I have a feeling that due to all this talk our winter will be disappointingly mild or average, this is not what I want, but there's so much excitement and apprehension built up that people will inevitably get disappointed due to high expectations (prepares for commentary onslaught)

[weathe20]

As a superstitious soul, all this talk of severe cold and the winter of doom etc is making me think of fools gold. I have a feeling that due to all this talk our winter will be disappointingly mild or average, this is not what I want, but there's so much excitement and apprehension built up that people will inevitably get disappointed due to high expectations (prepares for commentary onslaught)

Can anybody tell me how this years build up to winter compares to last year? Were there strong signs (in the models etc etc) that indicated a cold 2009/10 winter? Are the models are long range forecasts showing anything simular? Or as the obove post says, this winter could be a big let down.

Thanks.

Edited September 21, 2010 by weathe20

[Cymro]

Can anybody tell me how this years build up to winter compares to last year? Were there strong signs (in the models etc etc) that indicated a cold 2009/10 winter? Are the models are long range forecasts showing anything simular? Or as the obove post says, this winter could be a big let down.

Thanks.

Well in all fairness there was talk of cold weather like there always is, what was notable however was the southerly tracking of the jet stream and how the syntopics we're unusual to anything ever seen before, alot of cold pooling and a relatively quiet autumn and atlantic after a very wet august. The met office however predicted an average/mild winter, after last winter they aren't issuing long range weather forecast to the extend any more (to much bad press) There was a c hange in their forecast come december forecasting alot more cold inverstions etc which did happen.

One thing is certain this year is very different to last year and again out of the norm from what we are used to? What does this mean? We don't know because we aren't acustomed or used to such patterns so early on. It could be exceptionally mild, it could be average who knows, Amser y ddegnys (time will only tell)

[Geordiesnow]

The weather will do whatever it wants to do really, people can post the gulf stream shutting down, La Nina/El Nino type of stuff but too me, all that becomes irrelevant because its what the models actually show is all that counts. Thats not too say, La Nina/El Nino does not affect our weather because i believe it does, however you can't just think it will follow the rulebook all the time. I'm sure they are many exceptions.

One thing about last winter that dissapointed me was how we struggled to get cold uppers despite the good set up and how i look at the charts at the beginning of January and the ones from Feb 1991 and i think the latter easterly is alot more exciting too look at, makes you want too wish that sort of set up would happen again.

Even Feb 2005 Easterly in terms of set up was mouth watering but the uppers over the continent were not that cold at the time thus again, we struggled too get any significant cold pools.

So for me, i feel this winter could start off mild, then turning colder as we head in the latter stages of January-February - just a pure guess though.

[Dorsetbred]

I opted for A Normal UK winter. Given that last winter down here whilst cold, was devoid of snowfall in this area.

A normal winter whilst interspersed with cold spells is typically a damp wet one, and as we are so far away from our annual rainfall totals, even a wet one will bring some relief in some form.

I still feel last year was the exception rather than a short trend, so I'm sticking with A Normal winter, even though there's a lot of blocking going on in the Atlantic, which still has time to change.

Waiting for the Jet Stream to get it's act in gear, and normality returns, which still appears to be some way away yet.

I'm no expert, just a watcher from the sidelines.

(Flame retardant suit donned)

Edited September 21, 2010 by Dorsetbred