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Bottesford

Winter 2010/2011

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As we're into autumn now it's time to open a thread dedicated to a fair few of yous favourite season - winter.

What do you expect from the coming winter? What are you hoping for?

Lets have a friendly thread to discuss the upcoming season!

Kicking off... I hope for a mostly mild winter (to avoid me burning half the North Sea gas reserve!) but with a few short (week or so) sharp (like the glorious sunny sub zero week last Jan) periods mixed in. Would like to avoid endless days around 2c with low cloud and a heat sapping easterly but with nothing wintry in it if poss!

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Perfect timing i think for the winter thread to return.

this is interesting to say the least

i could be reading it wrong: gulf stream

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Now compare this to august 20th last year and you will see the huge contrast.

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png Found this via solarcycle24

for those of who didn't see the post in the autumn thread.

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Glad to see this back up and running again.

In terms of the coming winter, I have seen no clear consensus as of yet to help make a decision either way, in terms of what the common theme throughout the winter will be.

GP hinting at a cold Nov and December period with a sinking mid Atlantic high later into Jan and Feb

BFTP hinting that if the pattern gets locked and the jet stream remains far enough south then the high may not sink as suggested

Berometer seemingly advocating record mild courtesy of the 'census forecast'

All pie in the sky at the moment but the drama will undoubtedly unfold over the coming weeks.

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My wife told me that she is expecting a cold winter because she has seen lots of berries on the trees.

For myself, I have absoluely no idea except, to say that these days some strange things appear to be happening weatherwise.

For preference I would like a dry winter with lots of sunshine and blue skies, then it will feel warmer when outside even if the temps are below freezing.

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It is too early for me to try and predict what type of winter we shall see this year, however, over the coming months there are a number of factors that I will be keeping an eye on.

These are:

ENSO state and base atmospheric state sequelae

Stratospheric state

North Atlantic SST's

NH snow and ice cover levels.

To this we already know that we have solar min conditions and a westerly QBO.

Furthermore, as the winter season progresses, the phase of the GWO (which looks to be locked in La Nina) and the MJO will need to be monitored. Also there is the wild card of a SSW.

A lot to consider.

c

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Glad this thread is open again.

In terms of winter, i have analysed the temperature outcomes during the westerly QBO phases, and while the QBO alone would indicate another cool December, it also indicates that January and Febuary are on a knife edge depending on when we see the first QBO peak.

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Some great posts tonight, so for me the excitement builds and as C suggests a lot to consider. :D

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One thing I love about this time of year is how all the British folktales live on or are they tales? The more berries about, thick coats on horses, trees turning early. Squirrels collecting nuts frequently etc etc. As naturally I would also love another cold winter but what is cold and what is average? If we had an average winter wouldn't we not find it cold compared to most winters in the last ten years?

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Perfect timing i think for the winter thread to return.

this is interesting to say the least

i could be reading it wrong: gulf stream

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Now compare this to august 20th last year and you will see the huge contrast.

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png Found this via solarcycle24

for those of who didn't see the post in the autumn thread.

many thanks for showing this snowlover, take heed, its going to be another cold un except this time it will star sooner.

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There's some very interesting discussion regarding the coming Autumn and early winter period. This can be viewed in technical model thread LINK

The general theme seems to be a cool/cold Autumn and December :D with more uncertainty thereafter. I will be certainly following this thread over the coming months!

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Glad this thread is open again.

In terms of winter, i have analysed the temperature outcomes during the westerly QBO phases, and while the QBO alone would indicate another cool December, it also indicates that January and Febuary are on a knife edge depending on when we see the first QBO peak.

Whilst I tend to believe proper winter starts in earnest just around christmas, I would be very pleased to see another cool or cold december in the vein of 2008, and 2009. Indeed in many recent years December has more often than not been colder than average or near average i.e. 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009 and in other cases has at least delivered some cold weather i.e. 2000 (late dec), 2004 and 2006. Alot of signals are suggesting at least a slightly below average dec if not substantially below average dec. I'll be giving my initial general thoughts on winter at the end of october, however, until then I will enjoy reading early thoughts on this thread, good to see it up and running, I think i remember the summer thread opening in March so only right to see this thread opened now.

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One for the experts, anyone know what previous years match this years current teleconections? ie strong nina, low solar, westerly QBO,etc?

Ive seen a lot lately comparing this year to ones from the early 70s, not the best for cold and snow?

Also there was a lot of discussion last winter regarding how an East or West based nino led to different outcomes. Is this the same with ninas?

Ill say sorry now for all the dumb questions ill be posting between now and next March.lol

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One for the experts, anyone know what previous years match this years current teleconections? ie strong nina, low solar, westerly QBO,etc?

Ive seen a lot lately comparing this year to ones from the early 70s, not the best for cold and snow?

Also there was a lot of discussion last winter regarding how an East or West based nino led to different outcomes. Is this the same with ninas?

Ill say sorry now for all the dumb questions ill be posting between now and next March.lol

Best anologues for the current La Mina and Arctic Occilation are 1954, 1964 and 1981. Best anologues for the current QBO are 1992, 1987 and 1982.

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Which has the biggest influence upon our weather, La Nina and Arctic Oscillation or QBO?

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that you say Nina and AO, 1981/82 is still my favourite winter of all time.

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Which has the biggest influence upon our weather, La Nina and Arctic Oscillation or QBO?

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that you say Nina and AO, 1981/82 is still my favourite winter of all time.

Naaah,

'62/63 is mine.

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i think people should be wary on what they predict in a way. i think we could be in new territory and type of climate with all bizarre patterns of late,just because similar teleconnections have happened doesn't mean we will follow similar trends. i mean we could be in a new territory of weather with all these different variations of things QBO etc. all these bizarre things happening will play a lot of havoc of what should happen in certain set ups. like people have compared this years patterns with other years, but there has been so many factors that are going to influence our weather in the coming months that are different to years that people compare this one to. also when i say new territory of weather i mean as in different kind of weather , with well known set ups not matching to what we have seen from the past, heres an example, lets say we had the exact same factors and influences as a winter like 1946/47, people would presume that would mean a very severe winter, when infact so much has changed since then it could be a totally different scenario because of all the recent shifts in patterns and the jet. so while people compare this and that to other seasons, just be aware that we could be in a new era or territory of weather, completely different to other decades.

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Best anologues for the current La Mina and Arctic Occilation are 1954, 1964 and 1981. Best anologues for the current QBO are 1992, 1987 and 1982.

Thanks Sb

For anyone interseted this is a link to the Oceanic Nino index, which may or may not be of use.

Snowlover, i dont believe anyone is suggesting comparing like with like,but some of the best forcasters use analogues along with other variables to produce some amazingly accurate long range forcasts.

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Best anologues for the current La Mina and Arctic Occilation are 1954, 1964 and 1981. Best anologues for the current QBO are 1992, 1987 and 1982.

Yuk! 1964 and 1992 were two of the worst Scottish Ski Seasons to date, either 81 or 82 was plumbing the depths too! :cc_confused:

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I know each Winter is different, but i'm a little worried about what happened in the past.

When we've had a cold late Autumn and a cold start to Winter, this has then followed by the Atlantic during the second half of Winter...

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Yuk! 1964 and 1992 were two of the worst Scottish Ski Seasons to date, either 81 or 82 was plumbing the depths too! :unsure:

One possible flaw in your concerns- you are almost certainly thinking of the winters of 1963/64 and 1991/92 which were exceptionally dry and anticyclonic, with 1991/92 in particular having very little snow.

Those analogues refer to late autumn & winter periods, therefore setting up 1964/65 and 1992/93 as possible analogues. 1964/65 was probably a decent season for the Scottish ski resorts with plenty of cool zonal weather, though I'm not sure about how 1992/93 would've worked out- that winter was mild but it did have some phenomenal blizzards at times in January.

I have doubts also about 1980/81 and 1981/82 being poor seasons in Scotland- might you be thinking of 1979/80?

I know each Winter is different, but i'm a little worried about what happened in the past.

When we've had a cold late Autumn and a cold start to Winter, this has then followed by the Atlantic during the second half of Winter...

Recent years don't really bear this out. We can, of course, point to some prominent examples such as 1996/97 and 2001/02, and the notorious one back in 1988/89, but 2008/09, for instance, saw a cold start to the season with some potent northerlies, and then the first half of February was decidedly wintry. Decembers 1962 and 1978, though nothing like as severe as the Januarys & Februarys that followed, were also pretty cold.

There are also many contentious examples/non-examples. I've seen some references to 1993/94 as a season with a cold start which ended up as quite a westerly one, but on the other hand, it was hardly without its snow events, with a good deal of cold zonal weather in central and northern districts during December, while in mid to late February, continental air temporarily dominated and brought a few widespread snow events.

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Ok guys i know that the gulf stream may or may not be running but in the winter if the gulf stream runs slowly will we have cold winters like moscow or places like that because we are the same lattidute as them? :)

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Ok guys i know that the gulf stream may or may not be running but in the winter if the gulf stream runs slowly will we have cold winters like moscow or places like that because we are the same lattidute as them? :)

In theory yes, the North Atlantic current is what keeps the UK in a temperate climate and gives us milder winters than most places on out latitude. Currently the Gulf Stream seems to of almost fragmented, and the surface velocity's are well down, even down by the gulf they are well down on what they should be. I am no expert and we will have to see how things play out over the coming months. :drinks:

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In theory yes, the North Atlantic current is what keeps the UK in a temperate climate and gives us milder winters than most places on out latitude. Currently the Gulf Stream seems to of almost fragmented, and the surface velocity's are well down, even down by the gulf they are well down on what they should be. I am no expert and we will have to see how things play out over the coming months. :)

Thank you looks like its going to be a good winter then :drinks:

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