Huge Snowfall Caused By Rare Clash Of Weather Events

[Guest]

How can it be a once every 200 years event? We had a colder winter as recently as '63.

What utter balderdash.

Indeed, my experience of that winter was that we had long spells of very cold, very settled weather over a three month period, but there have been many colder and snowier months than any single month of the 2009-2010 winter.

The topic headline contains the words "Huge Snowfall", but I don't think anywhere had truely exceptional depths of snow. Yes some good falls of snow, but "huge"?? Hmmmm......

Search the Blizzard of 1978 into Google....now that's end of the world stuff!

The blizzard of January 1978 in the US gave birth to parts of the internet...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBBS

I like the official date of 16/02/78, my birthday

Edited September 2, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[snowmadchrisuk]

No significant snowfalls? We had nearly two feet of snow in the hills by the end of january and a good foot on the ground here then when the snow came in ont he tuesday january the 17th i think don't quote me on that though, we had drifts burying cars? Hardly not significant?

Leicestershire had no significant Snowfall last winter at all . Cold Frosty and dry . Some areas did very well but the Midlands was overall Cold,Frosty and Dry.

[Roger J Smith]

Imagine spending all that time in school and the best you could come up with is that snow in the UK was the result of cold air from the arctic.

I mean, who knew?

[cheeky_monkey]

i think to say north america is misleading...canada had much below average snowfall and a mild winter generally

[Weather-history]

Winter 09/10 didn't however deliver exceptional cold thanks to lack of clear skies in the main at night and no real deep seated continental easterly/north easterly. It had the potential to be a proper classic like 62/63 and 46/47 but never quite managed to get there especially in england and wales, but for Scotland it was a classic in terms of sustained cold. Also no major significant snowfalls were recorded apart from a couple of events in late dec and early jan and then on late feb (for scotland) this for me was a dissapointing factor of the winter.

Manchester region had some exceptionally low minima during early January, lower than that was recorded during either December 1981 or January 1982.

[Tom D]

How can it be a once every 200 years event? We had a colder winter as recently as '63.

What utter balderdash.

Ah, but there are other infrequent weather 'coincidences' where cold winters can occur, just not the same as having an extremely -ve NAO + El Nino.

[Wynn D Woo]

Manchester region had some exceptionally low minima during early January, lower than that was recorded during either December 1981 or January 1982.

Aye, we recorded some exceptional low temps too and the lack of reaching 10C+ for weeks on end is also of note for this part of the world.

[damianslaw]

Manchester region had some exceptionally low minima during early January, lower than that was recorded during either December 1981 or January 1982.

Yes the Manchester area did see some notable cold minima in early january, however, it was oddly localised. For instance our lowest temp was around -10 degrees, however, south manchester area was around -15 degrees. The prime reason being the deep snow cover in these areas which aided the lowering of temps compared to areas not too far away where there was less snow.

For low nightime minima here in Cumbria conditions last year were not a patch on conditions in late december 1995

[Neilsouth]

Rememeber people anything that isn't average is either related to Climate Change , Global Warming or Rare!

[Glacier Point]

Journalism should be about checking your source.

They concluded the harsh winter and heavy snow was an example of hard to predict weather events,

...not if you were following commercial forecasts outside of the UKMET where a number of us were going for something very unusual.

They analysed historical snow records.

... seems a bit if an indirect way of measuring winter cold, How about pressure anomalies which cause winds which cause airmasses to move ?

By analysing 60 years of snowfall measurements and satellite data, researchers concluded the anomalous weather conditions were caused by an unusual combination of an El Nino event and the rare occurrence of a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

.. so unusul and rare that it's occured severn times in the last 52 years (13%).

"The NAO was probably as negative as it's ever been in the instrumental record, which goes back to the early 1800s. This was a once-in-a-century type of event," he told BBC News

... do they perhaps mean the Arctic Oscillation, which was a record ?

The researchers also believe it is unlikely this combination will occur in the near future.

.. or perhaps when the next Nino event occurs within the next 20 years reflecting the PDO / AMO shift ?

Edited September 3, 2010 by Glacier Point

[Thundery wintry showers]

There were some standout events during last winter:

• 1st-10th January 2010 was the coldest first third of January since 1894.
  
• The first week of January ended with snow covering over 99% of the country- a statistic that even the likes of 1947 and 1963 may well have failed to match (neither winter being particularly snowy in north-west Scotland).
  
• Snow cover on Christmas Day was probably the most widespread since 1981, beating 1993, 1995 and 2004.
  
• Many parts of Scotland, and some (mainly inland) parts of northern England had continuous snow cover from 18 December through to mid-January near sea level.
  

It's fair to say that the "centrepiece" of the winter was that spell starting on 18 December, and the main reason why none of the three winter months of 2009/10 were exceptionally cold or snowy was because the coldest, snowiest spell of the winter straddled two calendar months. I think we would struggle to find many snowier 30 day periods than that in the last century.

Other than that, the rest of the winter was mostly notable for persistence of below-average temperatures, marginal snow events and lack of anything particularly mild, though some areas exposed to the north had sizeable convective snowfalls from the northerly at the end of January.

[damianslaw]

There were some standout events during last winter:

• 1st-10th January 2010 was the coldest first third of January since 1894.
  
• The first week of January ended with snow covering over 99% of the country- a statistic that even the likes of 1947 and 1963 may well have failed to match (neither winter being particularly snowy in north-west Scotland).
  
• Snow cover on Christmas Day was probably the most widespread since 1981, beating 1993, 1995 and 2004.
  
• Many parts of Scotland, and some (mainly inland) parts of northern England had continuous snow cover from 18 December through to mid-January near sea level.
  

It's fair to say that the "centrepiece" of the winter was that spell starting on 18 December, and the main reason why none of the three winter months of 2009/10 were exceptionally cold or snowy was because the coldest, snowiest spell of the winter straddled two calendar months. I think we would struggle to find many snowier 30 day periods than that in the last century.

Other than that, the rest of the winter was mostly notable for persistence of below-average temperatures, marginal snow events and lack of anything particularly mild, though some areas exposed to the north had sizeable convective snowfalls from the northerly at the end of January.

Yes the really cold severe snowy conditions were reserved for the 4 week period between the 17 dec - 15 jan. Outside this period the weather was never particularly harsh in terms of temps or heavy snowfall (though we shouldn't forget the heavy snow in late feb in Scotland). I actually found Feb to be very dissapointing in the snowstake front - it should have been far snowier were it not for the negative west based NAO propping up a high which anchor itself in a position not conducive for heavy snow showers except in far SE coastal areas - Norfolk and Kent did well but the rest of us not so.

Edited September 3, 2010 by damianslaw

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's true that in February Norfolk had more snow than many other parts of lowland Britain, but even so, there were no snowfalls in Norwich that lasted on the ground for two days or more (though 1st February had a snow cover left over from snowfalls on 29th/30th January, before it melted that evening). The next notable snowfall was on the 10th February which gave an inch of snow cover, but it was all gone by the next evening. Then there was some snow from frontal systems between the 16th and 23rd but on none of the occasions did snow lie on the ground for more than a few hours.

[SNOW GO]

I dont agree at all with the BBC/Met Office Global warming excuses what they seem to use now for any severe weather event ! In my humble opinion though last Winter that was extreme for some and average for others was only a hint at some much colder Winters to come not as OTT :o as a mini ice age some people suggest we are heading into but a gradual cool down to Winters more like some memorable ones of the 40s 50s 60s and even 70s. Interestingly also last Winter was very simmilar to the Winter before the big one that was 1963. Could it happen again soon?? The Met Office realy is on its own now when it comes to climate change as it often takes the side of global warming where as real climate change can include B) warmer and colder periods even times of Global cooling that the arriving La Nina may soon bring. So a very cold and snowy Winter being a once in a 200 year event is certainly not a true statement whether you believe in Global warming or not. Sorry rant over! :lol:

Edited September 4, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Cymro]

It seems significant snowfall then didn't hit all parts of the Uk, however there was a period of a few days where 95% or more of the Uk was blanketed in Snow (remebering that ghostly Picture) You cannot deny then that this was a pretty significant occurance because how many times has that happened in the past? Yes great winters of 47/63, But the winter of 47 deposited more snow in the Eastern parts of the coutnry compared to the Western, also winter of 63 was more notable for tempreature and not snow. You go them to winter of 82, not particulary that cold but a notable one for my neck of the woods with the 2 meter snow drifts etc which largely affected south western Britain.

Snowfall is so diverse with in the Uk you can't simply write it off because one area didn't have as much snow as the other, happened to be that Western areas in particular last winter had greateer snwofalls due to the atlantic systems trying to muster their way in, with the easterly pushing them back as soon as they got further than the west midlands.

However it was still a significant snowfall event, you rarely have snow lying on the ground for 3 weeks and then regular snowfalls afterwards in the Uk.

[North-Easterly Blast]

You only have to go back to winter 2005-06 for a distinct lack of mild weather. The lack of mildness actually ran from mid November 2005 through to after mid March 2006. The issue was the lack of real cold within the winter months. That wasn't the issue with last winter.

I remember some pundits suggesting the winter of 2005-06 could be the lower limit of cold for the current age. That of course can be scoffed at now.

Winter 2005-06 wasn't cold overall, it was close to average by 1961-90 standards, the only issue was that it was still respectable when compared to 1990s and 2000s standards. Winter 2005-06 was largely dominated by high pressure over the UK and as a result much of the cold spells that winter were due to inversion cold, or otherwise high pressure was kept too far east over western Russia and eastern Europe to be able to influence the UK with cold polar outbreaks, which was as a result of frequent shortwaves in the GIN corridor. Winter 2005-06 also saw little in the way of snow in the "high winter" period. It is not entirely true what you say Kevin about the lack of mild spells in the 05-06 winter, there were mild days at times during the first half of December and in the week before Christmas; the middle part of January that winter was mild, and there was another mild spell over the middle of February, although admittedly spells of mild zonality / Bartlett Highs occurred less during that winter than during many winters in the last 23 years.

In actual fact, the period from mid December 2000 to mid March 2001 had an equal CET to the same period from mid December 2005 to mid March 2006, so after the middle of December 2000, winter 2000-01 was also respectable by 1990s and 2000s standards too.

I do remember that I, myself, in the very mild winters of 2006-07 and 07-08 stated on the forum and feared that 2005-06 / 2000-01 could be the lower limit of cold in the current era. I am certainly now so pleased and relieved to see that by now it is not, after last winter and even the one before, although admittedly winter 08-09 was followed by a March that was quite a bit milder than 2006 and 2001.

[Optimus Prime]

The main worry for me came during the second half of February 2009 which turned out as one of the top mildest second halfs of February on record. If it hadnt been for a cold first half (similar to November 2005 month of two halfes) it would have been a very mild month easily wiping out the very cold December and January.

[Cymro]

The main worry for me came during the second half of February 2009 which turned out as one of the top mildest second halfs of February on record. If it hadnt been for a cold first half (similar to November 2005 month of two halfes) it would have been a very mild month easily wiping out the very cold December and January.

It seems to me that mild weather cna influence the cet greatly and has a massive ect where as cold weather takes longer to erode away at the cet and once the temperature is very low the average day cet for the time of year may as well be mild because the cet can change drastically over night and increasing at a great rate, like the beginning of January showed this year :/. I suppose the same can be said if a month starts mildly then it cuts it up in chunks on coolish days.

[BucksSnow]

This winter will be harsh in my opinion due to the la nina

[summer blizzard]

This winter will be harsh in my opinion due to the la nina

The state of the AO/NAO during October and November will be key for me, if we see an amplified pattern (a very positive AO/NAO or a very negative one), then i believe La Nina will dominate the pattern and its game on for cold, if we see neutral values, it indicates a late formation of the polar vortex and we can rule out the first half of winter as been anything special.

[knocker]

I don't know whether it's been mentioned before but there is a pretty good web site covering the winter 62-63. I don't particularly wish to remember it as I was working on the Salisbury Plain at the time which was giving a fair imitation of the South Pole.

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/

[Guest]

It's true that in February Norfolk had more snow than many other parts of lowland Britain, but even so, there were no snowfalls in Norwich that lasted on the ground for two days or more (though 1st February had a snow cover left over from snowfalls on 29th/30th January, before it melted that evening). The next notable snowfall was on the 10th February which gave an inch of snow cover, but it was all gone by the next evening. Then there was some snow from frontal systems between the 16th and 23rd but on none of the occasions did snow lie on the ground for more than a few hours.

On reading this TWS I realise I'm being very selfish. We had snow on the ground for week after week in Dec into Jan. Most notably the late Feb snow took two weeks to melt in the March sun and we still had snow patches by the third week of March. It shows you how blinkered one can become. I just always got the feeling last winter that I missed out by either ten miles north or south or 100m in altitude. If I had been fully whacked by all localish snow events I'd had had 50cm+ of snow for most of the winter...pure selfishness that my 4-12 inches over most of the winter wasn't enough.

Poor show CMD, grow up!!

Edited September 9, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Weather-history]

What I think ruined last winter a touch was that easterly during January. If that not had happened and we still remained under generally clear skies with all that snow cover and high pressure then it could have turned into a real humdinger. Manchester recorded 3 consecutive minima of under -10C but temperatures rose during that Saturday night and it was above freezing by Sunday dawn. That easterly was a failure.

GFS was hinting of high pressure over the UK in its long range but ECM was going for that easterly. ECM won and it looked as though it could be special with drifting snow and snow. It turned out nothing of the sort and was a damp squib.

Edited September 10, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

On reading this TWS I realise I'm being very selfish. We had snow on the ground for week after week in Dec into Jan. Most notably the late Feb snow took two weeks to melt in the March sun and we still had snow patches by the third week of March. It shows you how blinkered one can become. I just always got the feeling last winter that I missed out by either ten miles north or south or 100m in altitude. If I had been fully whacked by all localish snow events I'd had had 50cm+ of snow for most of the winter...pure selfishness that my 4-12 inches over most of the winter wasn't enough.

The post was referring only to how February panned out btw- hope I didn't confuse you into thinking that was my lot for the winter! I came up to Cleadon between 17th December and 5th January, and had snow cover there throughout the period, which exceeded 50% cover on all mornings except the 28th-31st December, and reached a level depth of 12cm for a time on New Year's Day. I returned to Norwich afterwards, where level snow depths reached about 10cm on the 9th January.

What I think ruined last winter a touch was that easterly during January. If that not had happened and we still remained under generally clear skies with all that snow cover and high pressure then it could have turned into a real humdinger. Manchester recorded 3 consecutive minima of under -10C but temperatures rose during that Saturday night and it was above freezing by Sunday dawn. That easterly was a failure.

GFS was hinting of high pressure over the UK in its long range but ECM was going for that easterly. ECM won and it looked as though it could be special with drifting snow and snow. It turned out nothing of the sort and was a damp squib.

Yes, I remember that well. In Norwich I was hoping to get a good dumping from that easterly, as it was expected to deliver prolonged heavy blowing snow. In the end the snow was lighter than expected and the airmass was also a bit less cold than expected, and so although it snowed non-stop for about 12-15 hours the snow depth halved over the same period.

I looked back over the GFS runs archive (I think they're only available within Extra) and found that, indeed, there were 2-3 days of runs which regularly showed high pressure sat over the British Isles and just a sluggish easterly flow in the south. It would probably still have turned less cold in the south, but mostly dry and therefore with minimal thawing, while it would almost certainly have stayed very cold and bright from the Midlands northwards up until the end of the second week.

[stewfox]

What I think ruined last winter a touch was that easterly during January. If that not had happened and we still remained under generally clear skies with all that snow cover and high pressure then it could have turned into a real humdinger. Manchester recorded 3 consecutive minima of under -10C but temperatures rose during that Saturday night and it was above freezing by Sunday dawn. That easterly was a failure.

GFS was hinting of high pressure over the UK in its long range but ECM was going for that easterly. ECM won and it looked as though it could be special with drifting snow and snow. It turned out nothing of the sort and was a damp squib.

Temperatures early on the 7th plunged well below -10C at many places, with a minimum value of -18C recorded near Manchester and in Oxfordshire. The -18c was near where I lived and match anything in my 45yrs inc 81.86 87 etc

A minimum temperature of -22.3C was recorded on the 8th at Altnaharra (Highland), the lowest anywhere in the UK since 1995.

Give me more damp squibs

Edited September 14, 2010 by stewfox