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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Fiona

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Fiona forms:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010

2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A

PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z

AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Convection a little lacking at the moment, and this will have to be rectified if Fiona is to strengthen. Complications for Fiona are Major Hurricane Earl to the west, which could shear the storm, and dry air to the north. Fiona is accelerating, and Earl is slowing. Unless Earl lifts north, Fiona may find it hard to survive/strengthen.

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Bit mystified - people are saying that Fiona will be 'a beast', yet the NHC's predicted path makes no mention of her becoming a hurricane. Just says tropical storm along all of the track in the graphic on the NHC's site... a considerable downgrade?

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Bit mystified - people are saying that Fiona will be 'a beast', yet the NHC's predicted path makes no mention of her becoming a hurricane. Just says tropical storm along all of the track in the graphic on the NHC's site... a considerable downgrade?

no I think it will take a while to get going

at201008.gif

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It is possible that Tropical Storm Fiona is accelerating because it is too close to Hurricane Earl, however once Earl moves north, Fiona should slow, it should also be noted that Earl was moving very fast when it was in this location as well. As for track, it is my opinion that they have it wrong, given Earls track and their interaction, i would not be suprised if Fiona did not turn north west until it gets close to Haita, slightly further south and west of Earl before a Florida Hit. In regards to intensity, i do agree that it won't make Hurricane status for around 72 hours, however shear from Danielle was not a problem for Earl once it moved north, and i do not think it will be for Fiona.

Fiona could be extremely dangerous in my opinion, and i think that a Florida hit is likely.

Where is the ECWMF wanting Fiona to go?

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It depends how much Earl gets in the way of her development. If Earl moves sufficiently out of the way then the shear on Fiona will relax and she should start to strengthen. Also the NHC forecast discussion mentions that the large size of Fiona will make organisation difficult.

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Poor Fiona is already getting eaten By Earl

175p.jpg

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Poor Fiona is already getting eaten By Earl

175p.jpg

It's not been eaten yet, though outflow and inflow are been affected, the same was true for Danielle and Earl.

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I am still not so sure that Tropical Storm Fiona will follow the expected track, because she should slow down a lot in the next 24-48 hours, afterward she may well follow Hurricane Earl into the weakeness and turn north west but i still expect her to be further south and west of Earl, and as such i refuse to believe that she will not hit the eastern USA.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

I think the key here is the interaction between Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona and ex-Danielle. The reason for this is that you can clearly see the front from Danielle dragging Earl along like a rope in the north west of the image, you can also see the occlusion ahead of Fiona which was previously ahead of Earl, which has been drawing Fiona towards it (a weakness) and i believe is responsible for her ever increasing speed, once she passes this in around 24 hours she should slow considerably and steering currents from Earl should send her on a similar track but further south west.

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Any chance of Fiona catching up with Earl? And if she did, catch up as Earl lifts out, could she actually be thrown further west?

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Can two hurricanes 'collide'?

Like a hurrican-can??

I don't think they can, they would surely disrupt each other too much to ever go bang?

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They can yes, and the larger/stronger storm often absorbs the other. This is happening now between TS Lionrock and TS Namtheun in the West Pacific. The two storms are moving towards each other and Lionrock will likely absorb Namtheun. Unlikely in this case, but if Fiona got too close to Earl then it is possible Earl would absorb Fiona. I don't think this will happen as Earl should move away from Fiona.

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Tropical Storm Fiona will not merge with Hurricane Earl because Hurricane Earl is already heading directly north west, while Tropical Storm Fiona is heading west-northwest, this is important because the NHC want Tropical Storm Fiona to be east of Hurricane Earl, as such we should be seeing Tropical Storm Fiona having a more northward movement than Hurricane, at the moment this is not the case and if Tropical Storm Fiona can get underneath Hurricane Earl, we could see a significant track change.

Does anybody have the tracks from the models?

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Recon in Fionda currently and have found winds of 50kts, this should be enough to see a significant upgade to 45kts at the next advisory.

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I think Fiona will track south of Early and not be close enough to be absorbed by him. The next one (yet to form) will make into the Gulf I reckon!

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Up to 60mph now, a bit of unexpected strengthening. Could be due to Earl weakening a bit so shear may have relaxed a little.

000

WTNT33 KNHC 011146

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010

800 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.2N 60.9W

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBUDA

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS

LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE

18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE

NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY

AFTER THAT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220

KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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They can yes, and the larger/stronger storm often absorbs the other. This is happening now between TS Lionrock and TS Namtheun in the West Pacific. The two storms are moving towards each other and Lionrock will likely absorb Namtheun. Unlikely in this case, but if Fiona got too close to Earl then it is possible Earl would absorb Fiona. I don't think this will happen as Earl should move away from Fiona.

I was of the understanding that powerful tropical cyclones repelled each other i.e. by rotating around each other in an anticlockwise nature, I believe this is known as the 'Fujiwara effect'. I haven't observed the cyclones in the west pacific but would I be correct in assuming that at least one of them is fairly weak in order to facilitate the merge?

Anyway back on topic, Fiona is now up to 60mph with some additional scope for strengthening in the next 24 hours. However at the moment she is looking quite ragged having lost some of her deep convection. If she can survive the forecast vertical shear, there is a possibility she could be cut off by the ridge moving back over Bermuda in a few days. I'm no expert by any means but this could be an interesting evolution which could send her back westwards possibly towards the east US in 7 -8 days.

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I was of the understanding that powerful tropical cyclones repelled each other i.e. by rotating around each other in an anticlockwise nature, I believe this is known as the 'Fujiwara effect'. I haven't observed the cyclones in the west pacific but would I be correct in assuming that at least one of them is fairly weak in order to facilitate the merge?

Yes, one storm is often weaker for absorption to take place. Lionrock is larger and a 50kt storm, Namtheun weakened to 30kts today and has dissapeared into the circulation of Lionrock. Another example I can think of is Iris and Karen in 1995- Iris was a cat 2 hurricane but Karen only a modest TS so Iris absorbed Karen. If both cyclones are intense/large the they will repel each other as you say.

Back to Fiona, she looked quite impressive earlier, but convection has subsided a lot again this evening. Potentially, this might be because Earl seems to be intensifying again and the outflow form the hurricane has impinged in the form of shear on Fiona. One thing to note however is it appears Fiona has slowed down, and as Earl continues to move away Fiona may be able to (at least temporarily) intensify a little more before stronger shear sets in.

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ef1c.jpg

Earl flirted with Fiona.

Earl and fiona went on a date.

Earl ditched Fiona,

Fiona got depressed ( see below )

2010AL08_1KMSRVIS_201009011845.GIF

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Terrible Shear on her poor thing (good pictures Cookie :) )

Amazing that recon are still reporting winds flight winds, upto 70 kts given how it looks.

Some models have Fiona, almost stopping if this is the case then Fiona might have a chance.

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Fiona's pressure has dropped again after a rise earlier. Down from 1001 to 997mb and still at 60mph.

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Suprisingly the only good thing for Tropical Storm Fiona is actually that being close to Hurricane Earl, pressure should be fairly low. In terms of track, Hurricane Earl is going to fling her north/north east looking at the models, however if she slows enougth and gets underneath him, development and a change in track could occur, but shear will remain strong for the next 24 hours because Tropical Storm Fiona is still moving faster than Hurricane Earl.

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Yes, a pretty impressive fight too. Intensity remains at 45kts and Fiona still has a well defined circulation. Convection has increased in the face of the shear too, though it is still located to the south of the LLC. Certainly has put on a more impressive fight than Gaston.

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Fiona is truly suffering now. Intensity is down to 40kts and this is probably generous. The LLC is almost completely exposed and the only convection associated with Fiona is a linear belt of showers extending to the southwest. Unless convection makes a comeback, Fiona is a goner.

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