Major Hurricane Earl

[Mondy]

[peterf]

Yet another update from me, sorry.

The latest 06Z models have moved further west still (apart from GFDL), Below is HWRF and GFS plotted on Google earth and the GFS zoomed in from a global picture.

It might not look to close, but if you superimposed Earl as he currently is on that track (let alone any more intensification) he would give hurricane force winds to NY and Boston and a Direct Hit on Nova Scotia......

If we take GFDL then he would be a 938mb 105Kt Major hurricane.

The 12Z suite will be interesting to see if there is any further westerly movement.

no need for sorry lol,just keep it comming iceberg it's much apreciated by many.peter

[Iceberg]

no need for sorry lol,just keep it comming iceberg it's much apreciated by many.peter

Cheers

Latest recon again the 100+kt area is growing (max 118kts) and the pressure is dropping down to 955 now and widely sub 960, approx dropping at 1-2mb an hr, not long before it's sub 950.

151700 1902N 06315W 6961 02976 9841 +091 //// 149101 102 084 015 01

151730 1901N 06316W 6966 02964 //// +079 //// 147099 101 084 022 01

151800 1900N 06317W 6970 02939 //// +074 //// 150109 112 086 019 01

151830 1900N 06318W 6956 02944 //// +083 //// 158108 109 086 024 01

151900 1859N 06319W 6977 02909 //// +081 //// 157111 111 087 032 01

151930 1858N 06320W 6958 02919 //// +074 //// 158110 111 092 032 01

152000 1857N 06321W 6960 02907 //// +069 //// 153107 108 096 037 01

152030 1856N 06322W 6966 02877 //// +070 //// 149107 109 099 049 01

152100 1855N 06323W 6951 02881 //// +082 //// 155112 118 100 050 05

152130 1854N 06324W 6955 02860 //// +091 //// 160102 103 109 035 01

152200 1853N 06325W 6967 02832 //// +100 //// 167097 100 105 030 01

152230 1853N 06326W 6975 02805 //// +124 //// 170082 088 106 020 05

152300 1852N 06327W 6960 02802 9580 +151 //// 166060 065 098 009 05

152330 1851N 06329W 6961 02794 9554 +166 +157 167047 049 068 005 03

152400 1850N 06330W 6961 02787 9556 +158 +152 177037 041 049 006 00

152430 1850N 06332W 6966 02778 9556 +156 //// 180031 032 043 004 01

152500 1849N 06334W 6966 02782 9563 +148 //// 186026 030 038 006 05

152530 1849N 06335W 6962 02782 9566 +146 //// 190017 020 035 006 01

152600 1849N 06337W 6968 02785 //// +136 //// 204010 015 037 005 05

152630 1849N 06339W 6956 02794 9575 +137 //// 136003 004 037 005 05

[crimsone]

Looking at the wind/track history and at the forecast cone from the NHC, is it me, or are they expecting earl to make a pretty sharp turn now? The history is entirely west, to west-northwest with no sign of a turn, and yet the NHC seem to forecast it going directly Northwest or even north-northwest imminently.

[Jayces]

Looking at the wind/track history and at the forecast cone from the NHC, is it me, or are they expecting earl to make a pretty sharp turn now? The history is entirely west, to west-northwest with no sign of a turn, and yet the NHC seem to forecast it going directly Northwest or even north-northwest imminently.

Maybe they are hoping it will turn sharply soon or I guess it's possible they don't want cause concern too early by showing a track much closer to the coast. I think it was 36-48 hours before Katrina hit that they could accuratly predict the landfall and I guess this applies to all hurricanes so we should know wed/thu where if anywhere it is going to hit.

This could be bad if Fiona develops and hits the SE as a strong hurricane, 2 landfalls on either end of the coast of major hurricanes is I am going to guess not a common occurance, though I know it's still very early days for Fiona.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Cheers

To echo PeterF, keep them coming,

How low do you think the central pressure will go? EWRC must come into it, but I see Earl in a better place to pull it off and stay major. What do you think?

Edited August 30, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Cookie]

Thanks for the updates guys.

Edited August 30, 2010 by cookie

[Iceberg]

A quick one from me.

Earl looks fantastic atm, it's drawing in from a large part of the ocean, from S.America to 97L to the mid atlantic and has a nice eye to boot.

Still no reason to suggest that Earl has stopped strengthening, probably 945 or so by now, it's managing to open and close the eye without the need of an ERC which is always handy, but it can't keep doing that forever.

As to how how can he go ? totally upto him, he has everything from high octance SST's to an Upper high to aid outflow to the incredibly strong inflow channels. GFDL takes him to over 150kts which would provide gusts of 200mph and I See no reason to discount it.

Tracks have firmed up near the east coast, tonights ECM moves slightly further west and his montion today has not be as far north as the NHC predicted. But considering the below by the time it reaches the east coast it will certianly give TS winds, likely to give Hurricane winds and give a potentially killer storm surge even on the current NHC track.

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES...295 KM. "

[Cookie]

Been watching web-cams from the Carribean hope their all ok down there.

Latest thoughts from JOE B

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724657001/laminate floori-says-carolinas-on-north-to-deal-with-the-duke-of-earl.asp

[Somerset Squall]

What a beauty to follow Danielle, and looks set to get stronger too. Looks to be a cat 4, and this one has a real shot at cat 5. Very worrying for all those in Earl's path.

[summer blizzard]

Thanks for the updates guys.

Beautiful pic showing them all interacting, and you can also see the convection link between Danielle and Earl which should yank Earl north and also 97L which could be quite a big storm.

[NL]

Latest satellite images show Earl still on a westerly track, sure looks like he's on course to hit the mainland unless he makes a dramatic right turn soon.

[Iceberg]

Earl is now officially a CAT 4 and still intensifying.

[Paranoid]

Models show Earl should begin a gradual turn towards the north west fairly soon. Some incredible strength forecast for Earl off the GFDL: 156kt winds and 916mb.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Paranoid

[President Bartlett]

Hi

I'm new to posting on forums, but I have always enjoyed the comments posted by members of netweather, whether it be models at winter, hurricanes etc. I have learn't so much from this site.

Hurricane earl has me quite worried though. What would the effect of the storm surge be on New York City? and is their any information on this. My feeling is, as history has shown, that Earl will move slightly further west and impact the east coast more significantly. What I dont understand is how the high pressure steers hurricanes. I saw the BBC weather forecast and it looked like the high was nudging east. Maybe I am barking completely up the wrong tree so any expert information from anyone greatly appreciated.

My fingers are crossed for the east coast US!

[summer blizzard]

In this case it is a little more complicated because Danielle, Earl and Fiona are all enhancing each others outflow and pulling each other along, hence why Earl is going to get a tug north and Fiona is also getting tugged towards Earl, you can see the interaction on sattelite images.

[Paranoid]

Welcome to the forums PB. There was a chart someone posted on here earlier today i think that showed the areas of NYC that would be affected by varying degrees of storm surge, it might answer a few of your questions on the subject.

[President Bartlett]

Thanks, I can see what you mean. Do you think the models have enough data to model this type of scenario? in which case Earls track could shift significantly west(or east).

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

Earl has been undergoing RI (very RI)

current pressure just found from new recon is 933.9mb, which is almost CAT 5 territory.

117kts in the SE quad....Which is frankly amazing.

211130 1921N 06442W 6284 03528 9412 +115 +118 170031 036 036 002 03

211200 1921N 06444W 6199 03635 9388 +125 +099 157015 020 029 001 00

211230 1920N 06446W 6191 03644 9378 +131 +088 133010 012 025 002 00

211300 1918N 06448W 6261 03555 9376 +139 +083 206006 007 022 001 00

211330 1916N 06449W 6193 03648 9392 +124 +084 270009 011 /// /// 03

211400 1917N 06451W 6272 03537 9383 +134 +083 271012 014 019 003 00

211430 1918N 06453W 6191 03640 9359 +144 +067 351005 009 021 001 00

211500 1920N 06454W 6216 03602 9339 +159 +061 038017 021 036 004 00

211530 1921N 06456W 6205 03623 9364 +141 +088 031041 054 049 004 00

211600 1923N 06458W 6226 03618 9403 +130 +100 027076 088 059 004 03

211630

[Mondy]

Wonderful image, most recent too

[Paranoid]

Given the rate of RI i think the NHC's forecast could easily fall short. SSTs are pretty constant at around 28-29c and i dont think shear is set to increase for some time. The GFDL (as aggressive as it may frequently be) could be accurate with its forecast of a Cat 5 assuming there arent any eyewall replacements for the next day or so.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

down to 934MB

[Paranoid]

Pretty incredible pressure drop given that the 10pm advisory estimated 948mb. I imagine that the rate of RI isn't that mad (14mb an hour would be a world record i imagine) rather that the NHC's satellite estimates were somewhat higher than the actual pressure. Regardless, this storm has gone from a Cat 2 a 4 in less than 10 hours so this is some impressive RI we're seeing.

[Cookie]

Pretty incredible pressure drop given that the 10pm advisory estimated 948mb. I imagine that the rate of RI isn't that mad (14mb an hour would be a world record i imagine) rather that the NHC's satellite estimates were somewhat higher than the actual pressure. Regardless, this storm has gone from a Cat 2 a 4 in less than 10 hours so this is some impressive RI we're seeing.

Wilma

However, convection gradually organized, and from October 18 through the 19th Wilma underwent explosive deepening over the open waters of the Caribbean. In a 30- hour period, the pressure dropped from 982 mbar to the record-low of 882 mbar, while the winds increased to 185 mph (295 km/h).