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Iceberg

Major Hurricane Earl

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Well we have TD7 following a similar path to Danielle (although a little further west and south), there is little doubt this will become Tropical Storm Earl very soon.

Intensity forecasts vary for him, GFDL takes him to a hurricane by Friday and a CAT 3 later in the run. HWRF takes him to a CAT 2 but no further. both GFS and ECM take him to a Hurricane as well.

Along his path he should have less dry air than Danielle, but is due to suffer from some Southwesterly shear at time.

This is again almost certainly a Fish, as it re-curves along a similar path to Danielle.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF

AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL

DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH

WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN

ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF

2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND

VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM

WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR

AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE

FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON

THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE

DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS

TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE

CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE

CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A

PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN

MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY

FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT

120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

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Nice train of storms there, the cloudiness on the coast of Africa will probably go onto become TD8 if the models are to be believed.

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It'll be interesting to see how they interact with one another (IMHO) Some of the ealier models had Earl eaten by Danielle!

Should we get a third player on the field then any interactions become a tad more complex!!!

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Good model agreement on both Earl and Fiona to develop both GFS and ECM.

Both to develop into Hurricanes as well.

post-6326-030983400 1282764964_thumb.png

post-6326-018435700 1282764971_thumb.gif

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Official confirmation now

000

WTNT32 KNHC 252029

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...EARL...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE

EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 32.2W

ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE

OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM

TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Latest from NHC, basically nothing shoul get in the way of tuning Earl into quite a big hurricane

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS

AROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...

PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE

STRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO

NORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THE

TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS

WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR

STRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE

LGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A

HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO

BRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5.

THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.

A 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE

CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO

THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT

AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE

SUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK.

FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE

MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN

CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE

CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK

WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY

PACKAGE.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES

AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL

ATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK

OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A

BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND

THE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH

DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS

AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 34.8W 40 KT

12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 37.2W 45 KT

24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.4N 40.3W 50 KT

36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 43.7W 60 KT

48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 52.3W 80 KT

96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT

120HR VT 31/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 95 KT

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It might be very quiet here at the moment, but I have no doubt that Earl will grab more than a few of it's own headlines.

NHC have been hinting for awhile now that if Danielle turns right soon rather than later and Earl is a little slower in development, then it might miss the ridge weakness created by Danielle.

Well GFS and therefore GFDL and HWRF have progged such a thing and the GFDL doesn't make pretty viewing if you live on the US east coast.

It generates a strengthening Hurricane moving westwards just below CAT 5 at the end of the run, this should NOT be discounted and shows that the mixture of Danielle, Earl and Fiona will be a complicated load of stuff to follow !

post-6326-018268000 1282847357_thumb.png

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Odd that Earl's projected pressure at just below Cat 5 is only one mbar lower than the Cat 2 Alex earlier this year, although Alex had an anomalous low pressure for a storm of its strength. Danielle, Earl and Fiona could well contribute towards a fair majority of this season's ACE value, i wouldn't be surprised if some of them got values of over 30.

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As per the Danielle thread heres the Earl plot as well.

Your right Paranoid you would really expect a pressure of 920-930 to support those winds, I tend to find that GFDL has better wind handling and HWRF has better pressure predictions, both of them though have been very wrong at times this year ! :wallbash:

post-6326-017015600 1282850254_thumb.png

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Hi Ice!

I'd seen the earlier GFS run that had Earl being a tad naughty! I think it more likey (?) that he will slip through and be more of the type of 'Cane that draws the crowds on here?

I'm more than happy to have the remnants plump up the temps over here (just in time for the kids to be back at school and for me to grab some 'Golden Time'!

As for 'extra's ,we may have 2 more to look at (the one now highlighted and the one still working to the African Coast?)

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Morning GW Earl is looking better this morning IMO.

Covection is centred and the the elongated look is going, today could be the day Earl finally looks like a strong TS.

It still looks set to miss the first ridge weakness from Danielle, but should turn norther in the second, although this is very close to the west coast and only a small change will cause landfall in North America.

As NHC say very good model guidance still that this will reach a Major Hurricane status, if it can sort itself out.

AFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL

HAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND

WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND

STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING

TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY

LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT

EARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF

STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP

EARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A

HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION

THEREAFTER.

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Yeah ,it looked like the storm was going in around the Carolina's (or north) and if it's a major then it could cause quite a splash.

Lets see what the rest of the days convection brings us?

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NYC a possibility?

The idea of a hurricane there really interests me from a weather point of view although clearly it would cause huge damage, which is not good.

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It has happened before i think. The New England region certainly has been hit by hurricanes before. I think New York was affected by a hurricane in 1938, that's the last major one i can think of.

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havent posted on here for months but need to ask a question...not to be exact but I'm flying to Cuba Monday morning for 8 days. Do you think Earl will affect me? I want sun and sea not rain and 100mph winds. :winky: replies grateful

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havent posted on here for months but need to ask a question...not to be exact but I'm flying to Cuba Monday morning for 8 days. Do you think Earl will affect me? I want sun and sea not rain and 100mph winds. :winky: replies grateful

Possible... anything's possible out in FI... but very unlikely at this point.

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thanks alot :winky: Although I'd love to be in a hurricane to a degree I'd like it to be on my terms when I go out on a chase or something..Not on a 2k holidays lol

Cheers again

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