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Paranoid

Hurricane Frank

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Formed at the same time as TD6 in the Atlantic.

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 212035

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010

200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR

THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.9N 93.2W

ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE

CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE

CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A

SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND

ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE

COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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09E has rapidly organised to a 40kt tropical storm named Frank. Frank is a healthy looking storm with good central convection and increasingly defined banding. A storm of this structure can intensify quickly, and as long as Frank stays away from land, it will have no problem becoming a hurricane. The proximity to land bears close watching; a jog to the north could bring Frank inland. Therefore, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Mexico. NHC's peak estimate of 70kts could end up being conservative as there is a chance of rapid strengthening given the warm waters, low shear and excellent outflow.

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Frankly this look quite good. :lol:

20100822.1645.goes13.x.wv1km.09ENINE.35kts-1002mb-139N-950W.100pc.jpg

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LOL Cookie, that was awful :whistling:

Frank has intensified to 50kts, however, in the last 3 hours 30kts of unexpected shear has blasted the storm. This has stripped practically all of the convection away from the LLC, which remains well defined for now. Shear is expected to persist for at least the next 24hrs, and I find it hard to see how Frank can still intensify in these conditions (as the latest discussion from the NHC suggests). In fact, based on recent satellite imagery, Frank could weaken, at least temporarily. The further west Frank goes, the lower the shear. Based on the strong LLC, Frank should survive the shear and eventually become a hurricane once he moves into the more favourable environment.

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After weakening to 45kts, Frank has re-strengthened and now is at it's strongest it's ever been with an intensity of 55kts. Shear is still moderate but is lower than yesterday which has allowed convection to reform over the LLC. Shear is set to ease further beyond 24hrs, and NHC mentions an anticyclone settling above Frank which will enhance outflow too. In the 24-48hr time period, Frank is expected to become a hurricane in the much more favourable environment. Beyond this, waters cool on the northwest veering west track, which will induce slow weakening.

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Frank has become a hurricane, the third of the season, with intensity rising to 65kts. Frank has a solid central dense overcast, with an eye now emerging (you can just about depict it in Cookie's satellite image, thanks Cookie). Outflow is becoming impressive, and with low shear, I think Frank could become stronger than the 75kts predicted by NHC. Beyond 60hrs, Frank will be moving over cooler waters which will induce weakening as the storm curves northeastwards towards the southern tip of Baja California. Frank should be dissipating or severely weakened by the time it reaches this area.

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Frank has strengthened further to 75kts. However, the northward turn into cooler waters is expected soon, which will incduce a steady weakening trend.

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The rather ignored hurricane frank due to Atlantic busy spell

201008271530goes11xvis1.jpg

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